Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 92 degrees with a DP of 76 and heat index of 105! I expect storms to start rapidly popping up soon. -7 to -10 LI with CAPE around 3k and 30-50kt 0-6km wind shear. Also, lapse rates around 7 with spots of 7.5 lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 92 degrees with a DP of 76 and heat index of 105! I expect storms to start rapidly popping up soon. -7 to -10 LI with CAPE around 3k and 30-50kt 0-6km wind shear. Also, lapse rates around 7 with spots of 7.5 lapse rates. When the heat index is > 10+ degrees from the actual temp...that's impressive. I'm in the same boat (below). I'll believe T-Storms when I see them. Either Mother Nature or the Radar have been screwing w/me this Spring. Or both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Currently; Temp: 91.7F Dew: 75.3F Heat: 103.6F The NAM looks good for 5-8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 When the heat index is > 10+ degrees from the actual temp...that's impressive. I'm in the same boat (below). I'll believe T-Storms when I see them. Either Mother Nature or the Radar have been screwing w/me this Spring. Or both! Not just you who has been getting screwed constantly this whole year. Really hope something can form today. I'd really really hate seeing this kind of potential being wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 IMO everything is shaping up for this to be one heck of an event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 IMO everything is shaping up for this to be one heck of an event for us As soon as the predicted line forms ( line of discrete storms? ), it is game on. Should be seem pretty intense storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not just you who has been getting screwed constantly this whole year. Really hope something can form today. I'd really really hate seeing this kind of potential being wasted. Oh, I know. Many have been screwed. Here's what I'm gonna do. Pull food out to BBQ....let the grill get hot in the 6-7pm time frame. Then BAM! A T-Storm just to screw me. An absolute lock! A never fail method...hopefully lawn chairs are blowing and smack me upside the head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Per MA forum. Pretty significant hail threat for this region. 3" bulls-eye over mby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Noticing storms increasing in coverage. Should only get better from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Oh, I know. Many have been screwed. Here's what I'm gonna do. Pull food out to BBQ....let the grill get hot in the 6-7pm time frame. Then BAM! A T-Storm just to screw me. An absolute lock! A never fail method...hopefully lawn chairs are blowing and smack me upside the head! Then after the storm keep cooking the food so you don't have it go bad in a freezer with no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Noticing storms increasing in coverage. Should only get better from here on out. They've done this all Spring but then die out? At least in SW Mont county Pa. Really no big boomers. This is a nice setup though.....sun perking out as well. 90.7F / 75.6F DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hey guys radar is a total fail. Future radars busted big on the 2-3pm storm line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hey guys radar is a total fail. Future radars busted big on the 2-3pm storm line. True, though it looks like something is coming together. Future radar still as intense looking as ever, though now pushing back the time once the line really forms back to 4pm. Do not recommend throwing in the towel just yet, it's just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Then after the storm keep cooking the food so you don't have it go bad in a freezer with no power. That would be my (many) luck this Spring. Grill....sprinkles/light rain....back to grilling...eat it all (or try)....no electricity because someone hit a pole for an unknown reason...still no T-Storm/downpour....sweat my ass off in bed. (No A/C) Sounds like a plan...I'm pumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Let's reverse the seasonal trend line looks ragged so it will intensify at point blank range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 1 hour ago Now Future on TWC radar ( 4:15 PM ) 5:15 Models have been showing this scenario consistently for a while now. They have to be on to something. Line or bust it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mesoscale Discussion 1140 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST OH/WV TO MUCH OF NJ/SOUTHERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342...343... VALID 231925Z - 232100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342...343...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OH/MUCH OF WV/WESTERN MD AND SOUTHERN PA/PORTIONS OF NJ. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 342/343 CONTINUE UNTIL 23Z/02Z RESPECTIVELY. DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN WV INTO FAR WESTERN MD AS OF 315 PM EDT/1915Z. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF MODERATELY STRONG BUOYANCY /2000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TRANSIENT/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN CONCERNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 1 hour ago Now Future on TWC radar ( 4:15 PM ) 5:15 Models have been showing this scenario consistently for a while now. They have to be on to something. Line or bust it seems. Sign me up! I've been down the "bust" side quite a bit....show me a solid passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Not a bad meso. SPC still sees potential. Liking the LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun poking through...it's so damn smoggy out I can't tell if it's clouds or haze? 90.8F / 75.1F DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm thinking trash the future radar. It doesn't show any of the convection to the west and it keeps doing that thing where a line just magically appears out of thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Radar looks good to me right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Radar looks good to me right now... It's been that way all damn Spring for us in SE PA...it never pans out. Storms just die. Hopefully today is "the day". Great conditions right now...meh, let's see. 90.9F / 96.4F DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's been that way all damn Spring for us in SE PA...it never pans out. Storms just die. Hopefully today is "the day". Great conditions right now...meh, let's see. 90.9F / 96.4F DP Hard to believe the DP is 96.4, lol. Watch until 11PM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I confess to not knowing much about severe wx forecasting.....but the sun beaming down here in NE Philly is def a good thing I know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Microburst composite looks really good. 10 over the city. The storms seem to keep on intensifying, and there's nothing really stopping it from intensifying it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Glenn really doesn't sound all that enthused. Comes in...a little "bam" (if any)...then quickly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Storms moving in to ~3k CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hail time baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 while the radar is looking better, there's really been a lack of storm reports with them despite the warnings. Still can't ask for better timing wise for this line to go through the area. With the parameters in place, I'd be pretty surprised for it to weaken and think we may even see it intensify as it moves through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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