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E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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^ I've given up on everything till it happens. I could have have red cells over me and it sprinkles...nothing seems to pan out this Spring.

True. Not one severe storm yet and its summer now. Pretty sure tomorrow is our best chance yet, but hail and tornado threat is low so we'll see...

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Yup. Radar has been crying wolf this thunderstorm season for some reason

 

It's gotta give in at some point one would think? But yeah, haven't been drilled once this Spring when I was sure otherwise. Still have had decent rainfall for June but...like..."boring" rain w/some lightning / thunder. Nothing which make you run for cover in the least bit...

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It's gotta give in at some point one would think? But yeah, haven't been drilled once this Spring when I was sure otherwise. Still have had decent rainfall for June but...like..."boring" rain w/some lightning / thunder. Nothing which make you run for cover in the least bit...

Haven't had anything great here either. A couple thunderstorms with big time rainfall rates, but other than that, nothing to really set up my camera for.

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Month to date departures

 

NYC: -0.1

EWR: -0.3

LGA: -1.1

FJK:  +0.7

TTN:  +1.7

PHL:  +2.4

 

Projecting one hot day tomorrow and a cool finish to the month a rather remarkable hot first third of summer/below average summer demarcation line runs from just south of New York city wsw into sepa. Heats been getting cut off at the pass south of Qtown. Similar to the past winters snow line.

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THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE...

WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD.

THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVERS...SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL

IS LIMITED.

 

 

Good timing, good dynamics, what could go wrong? don't answer that

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MCS staying north thankfully. Even though we'll deal with some debris clouds, it's mostly just high clouds. Sunny and 80 degrees here. Don't really see a reason to keep moping over the failure of this severe season, we have a good chance right now. Things seem to be going our way for once this year.

 

AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
BY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30 KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT IS
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THERE
DOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WIND
PROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDS
COULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS.

 

Next thing to happen now is for a line to develop across Pennsylvania that will move southeast. 

 

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post-115-0-71860700-1435058781.png

post-115-0-13872200-1435058788.png( credit to Mapgirl for the HRRRRRRRRR pictures. )
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From this morning's severe disco:

 

 

 

...MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WHILE THE REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW
FIELDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000+ J/KG.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NY/PA MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS PA/NJ SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS WHERE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE
WITHIN ONE OR MULTIPLE SEWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS
. WHILE DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
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