RedSky Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Humidity is down and high forecast of 86F. This is the big heat the outlets have been harping on for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ^ I've given up on everything till it happens. I could have have red cells over me and it sprinkles...nothing seems to pan out this Spring. True. Not one severe storm yet and its summer now. Pretty sure tomorrow is our best chance yet, but hail and tornado threat is low so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yup. Radar has been crying wolf this thunderstorm season for some reason It's gotta give in at some point one would think? But yeah, haven't been drilled once this Spring when I was sure otherwise. Still have had decent rainfall for June but...like..."boring" rain w/some lightning / thunder. Nothing which make you run for cover in the least bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 True. Not one severe storm yet and its summer now. Pretty sure tomorrow is our best chance yet, but hail and tornado threat is low so we'll see... I've given up till I see it...not "Radar" but actually see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Ended yesterday with 1.8" of rain. 6.94" for the month. Humidity is down and high forecast of 86F. This is the big heat the outlets have been harping on for today? Yeah, not so bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's gotta give in at some point one would think? But yeah, haven't been drilled once this Spring when I was sure otherwise. Still have had decent rainfall for June but...like..."boring" rain w/some lightning / thunder. Nothing which make you run for cover in the least bit... Haven't had anything great here either. A couple thunderstorms with big time rainfall rates, but other than that, nothing to really set up my camera for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Humidity is down and high forecast of 86F. This is the big heat the outlets have been harping on for today? and in the winter "bitter cold" at 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Kinda getting used to this heat. It's been around 90 for a lot of the month, or at least it feels like it has. Tomorrow should be pretty hot. Pretty sure the highest temperature I had last year was somewhere around 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 80.1F at 1pm. Helluva way to run a heat wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Moved my sensor 50ft away into the woods recently finding out i picked up heat from nearby driveway and house. Chillin' out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Month to date departures NYC: -0.1 EWR: -0.3 LGA: -1.1 FJK: +0.7 TTN: +1.7 PHL: +2.4 Projecting one hot day tomorrow and a cool finish to the month a rather remarkable hot first third of summer/below average summer demarcation line runs from just south of New York city wsw into sepa. Heats been getting cut off at the pass south of Qtown. Similar to the past winters snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Hmm... First slight risk I wasn't on the border of. Maybe we'll get dark clouds and a single gust of sub-severe winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVERS...SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LIMITED. Good timing, good dynamics, what could go wrong? don't answer that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Things starting to bloom in Michigan, tornado warnings and severe t'storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Things starting to bloom in Michigan, tornado warnings and severe t'storm warnings. They bloom on my doorstep...I'm done till I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 First severe chance this year that has a chance to actually play out completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 MCS staying north thankfully. Even though we'll deal with some debris clouds, it's mostly just high clouds. Sunny and 80 degrees here. Don't really see a reason to keep moping over the failure of this severe season, we have a good chance right now. Things seem to be going our way for once this year. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, STILL LOOKING AT CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITYBY MID AFTERNOON (CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG). MODEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 30 KT VS THE 40 KT WE SAW WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOUNDINGS), BUT ISSTILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSIN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LAPSE RATES. THEREDOES APPEAR THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE, AT LEASTTHROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, IF NOT LATER, BUT STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVETEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED. THE VERY HIGH MELTING LAYER WILL LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT GIVEN HOW HIGH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL BE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.THE MAIN HAZARD THOUGH LOOKS TO BE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN A WINDPROFILE THAT IS ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL A MID LEVEL JET, STRONG WINDSCOULD EASILY MIX DOWN WITH STRONGER STORMS. Next thing to happen now is for a line to develop across Pennsylvania that will move southeast. ( credit to Mapgirl for the HRRRRRRRRR pictures. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good luck guys, we're pretty much out of it up here with the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 3.5k SBCAPE at 10 AM Supercell composite I wish there were less clouds though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Drudge headline "Hell heat scorches DC" Ray needs ice FAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 From this morning's severe disco: ...MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOWFIELDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE PRESENCEOF A MOIST BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATEINSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000+ J/KG.CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYASSOCIATED WITH THE NY/PA MCS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE INSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATELYSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS PA/NJ SWWD INTO THE CNTRLAPPALACHIANS WHERE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVEWITHIN ONE OR MULTIPLE SEWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BANDS. WHILE DAMAGINGOUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...SOME SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPSA BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Skies clearing up. I can actually see blue sky now. 3,500 SBCAPE + heating from sun = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Oppressive outside right now. 89.2F with a 75.9F dew point. Heat index is 100.2F. Severe weather threat moved my work from outdoors to indoors today. Phew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Bye cloud debris. Also... SARS Hail Size showing impressive maximum hail size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Skies clearing up. I can actually see blue sky now. 3,500 SBCAPE + heating from sun = Not here...clouds wall to wall. 88.6F / 74.7F DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What the sky currently looks like here. Some clouds, but still plenty of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Cumulus clouds starting to form now that the high clouds are moving outta here. Wondering what will happen with the parameters with have. Been a while since the environment has been this favorable for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Radar really looks like crap to the W....75.2DP and nothing can fire up. A little sun here and there but mainly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Radar really looks like crap to the W....75.2DP and nothing can fire up. A little sun here and there but mainly cloudy. 76.2DP....that's insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Radar firing up to the nw. 83.1F not going to make 90F imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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