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E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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0.74" on the day @ 1:45 AM.  0.58" of that fell in under 20 minutes.  Had a peak rain rate of 7.29"/hour.  

 

 

Get some pics BBasile, getting some good bolts here and hopefully that line of red will make it here before it dies.

 

Unfortunately, I didn't have my camera with me.  Quite a few CG strikes, too.  

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Wow.  Alot of sound and fury overnight producing < 0.5".  Almost like we were in the center of the disorganized circulation.  I heard that post-11 pm loud rolling thunder on and off for a couple hours but didn't see much if any lightning as someone was getting decimated.  Apparently downtown they were reporting some real lightning fireworks.

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Here in Cape May 0.65". That's well under what was expected. I do agree with RedSky: did not need it. The day has turned out nicely if 88° with a 74° dew point is what one likes. Very muggy! Must say though wind occasionally gets up to 15mph and that feels good.

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Here in Cape May 0.65". That's well under what was expected. I do agree with RedSky: did not need it. The day has turned out nicely if 88° with a 74° dew point is what one likes. Very muggy! Must say though wind occasionally gets up to 15mph and that feels good.

Your rain gauge may be low biased. KWWD reported 1.26in. My PWS has the same fault, may be slightly off balance. 0.76in for today on my PWS.

 

I only live about 2 miles from the airport. Another PWS a few blocks away reported 1.56in.

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Your rain gauge may be low biased. KWWD reported 1.26in. My PWS has the same fault, may be slightly off balance. 0.76in for today on my PWS.

 

I only live about 2 miles from the airport. Another PWS a few blocks away reported 1.56in.

 

Just checked MesoWest for the 24-hour precip. for KWWD and it showed 0.67". As for my reading it's from a National Weather Service standard 8" rain gauge. Actually I have two. You put the ruler in the tube and measure. The two read .65" & .63". I do have a Texas Electronics electronic gauge and it measured .67". This is all for today, Sunday, from midnight. I had no measurable precip. on Saturday. Rain here started about 11:45pm last night. As you probably know rainfall in thunderstorms can vary greatly in very short distances. We all could be right on!

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Just checked MesoWest for the 24-hour precip. for KWWD and it showed 0.67". As for my reading it's from a National Weather Service standard 8" rain gauge. Actually I have two. You put the ruler in the tube and measure. The two read .65" & .63". I do have a Texas Electronics electronic gauge and it measured .67". This is all for today, Sunday, from midnight. I had no measurable precip. on Saturday. Rain here started about 11:45pm last night. As you probably know rainfall in thunderstorms can vary greatly in very short distances. We all could be right on!

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KWWD.html

 

Direct from the source my man. Don't mean to fight so hard over petty stuff but it is important for quality keeping.

 

I agree about precip totals varying over small distances. It was fairly convective in nature. Looks to be a combination of this influence and sensor noise among stations.

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http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KWWD.html

 

Direct from the source my man. Don't mean to fight so hard over petty stuff but it is important for quality keeping.

 

I agree about precip totals varying over small distances. It was fairly convective in nature. Looks to be a combination of this influence and sensor noise among stations.

 

I am positively all for quality. No fight and not petty. The good thing is having people who care about quality. Achieving it can be tough at times but here we're among  those who do care. Mean while I was happy to have less rain.

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I am positively all for quality. No fight and not petty. The good thing is having people who care about quality. Achieving it can be tough at times but here we're among  those who do care. Mean while I was happy to have less rain.

:clap:

 

Well, we definitely made up for the dry spell in May during June. So it should suffice for now.

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Your rain gauge may be low biased. KWWD reported 1.26in. My PWS has the same fault, may be slightly off balance. 0.76in for today on my PWS.

 

I only live about 2 miles from the airport. Another PWS a few blocks away reported 1.56in.

Not seeing 1.26" from WWD.  How do you figure?  You don't add every 1-hour total up because they are 20-minute obs.  Add up the 6-hour reports (right column).

 

The 8" rain gauge that Bliz has is the standard and has been for over 100 years.  The 4" CoCoRaHS gauge is pretty good too.  I'd rank them pretty close to top and all automated gauges below them.  ASOS gauges are *generally* better than PWS gauges but there are occasional exceptions.

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Not seeing 1.26" from WWD.  How do you figure?  You don't add every 1-hour total up because they are 20-minute obs.  Add up the 6-hour reports (right column).

 

The 8" rain gauge that Bliz has is the standard and has been for over 100 years.  The 4" CoCoRaHS gauge is pretty good too.  I'd rank them pretty close to top and all automated gauges below them.  ASOS gauges are *generally* better than PWS gauges but there are occasional exceptions.

The 1.26" total was taken from the wunderground PWS map (which has NWS stations) but it looks like it was bugged somehow. Either way the totals are all over the place for such a small radius among the PWS of Cape May County.

 

Regardless the NWS obs still add up to 0.84" or 0.89" if you include the 3-hourly ob at 10:55 6/21. 

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Thunderstorm thread ever gonna open up soon? 2000-3000 k/jg for CAPE on GFS and NAM models for our area tomorrow. NAM a bit more bullish, though most likely a bit overdone. 
 
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TUESDAY...SEVERAL THINGS TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS THAT THERE IS A
TREND FOR A FASTER FRONTAL ARRIVAL (BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS,
NAM AND ECMWF IT MAY ALREADY BE OFF SHORE BY 00Z). GIVEN THAT THE
OVERALL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS A VERY FAST ZONAL PATTERN, AND GIVEN
HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS OF BILL LIFTED OUT YESTERDAY, THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS BOTH FOR THE THREAT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE SEVERE THREAT.

FIRST FOR THE HEAT THREAT: IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A DANGEROUSLY HOT
DAY IN DELMARVA (HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 105). FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY/URBAN CORRIDOR: HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST (A DIRECT RESULT OF THE
POTENTIAL EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT), BUT STILL LOOK TO BE
ABOVE 95. DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT: THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL AIDE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
INCREASING LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. BY THE AFTERNOON, CAPE VALUES
OF 1500 - 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE (NAM SHOWS EVEN ABOVE 2000 J/KG,
BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEW POINTS SO THINK
THIS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE REALIZED). THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (AROUND 40KT), THOUGH FLOW IS ALMOST
ENTIRELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO SHEAR IS ALMOST ENTIRELY SPEED SHEAR.
THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT MIGHT LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER.
FIRST, IF THE TREND FOR A FASTER COLD FRONT CONTINUES IT COULD
BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE PEAK HEATING LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER INSTABILITY. SECOND...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
AS WELL AS THE BEST LIFT (ASIDE FROM MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT) STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. IN FACT, BY MID DAY WE LOOK
TO BE UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH
COULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALL THAT BEING SAID THOUGH,
STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL AS THE GRIDS. HAIL THREAT IS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE VERY ELEVATED MELTING LAYER IN THE PRE FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT THAT THREAT. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS VERY
MINIMAL GIVEN HARDLY ANY DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

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