Shawn Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rofl @ the SREF trying to throw a Wintry mix into CAE. Low pop chance of course. I think it's gone nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 0z very juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hearing you NNC people just got NAMed! Get the generators ready! I saw the snow map in the MA forum and it had nada for any of NC-I'm guessing we must have gotten a lot of FZ/IP on that run then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I saw the snow map in the MA forum and it had nada for any of NC-I'm guessing we must have gotten a lot of FZ/IP on that run then?Yes, mostly ip/zrn. I think NAM had some areas at 30 by noon!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Packbacker, oh Packbacker......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM was 1-2F from being a moderate winter event for northern NC. But, close only counts in horse shoes... Edit: NC/VA border counties is a bigger event per NAM, I-40 corridor is a smidge warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Packbacker, oh Packbacker......... LOL...everything has trended to the RGEM, 1-2F to warm but wet. So a lot of cold rain, we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 LOL...everything has trended to the RGEM, 1-2F to warm but wet. So a lot of cold rain, we got that going for us.Low levels are going to cool more quickly than the Nam is picking up on. There's your 1-2f.Glad you're still checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah, one or two degrees could easily be wrong and this could be a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Low levels are going to cool more quickly than the Nam is picking up on. There's your 1-2f. Glad you're still checking in. What's the qpf looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm a little surprised, not even a winter weather advisory here. NAM and GFS look in agreement for about 3-5 inches in Hampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What's the qpf looking like? Beats me. I'm on the phone and don't have map access right now. I still don't think we're going to do much better than .1-.3 frozen, depending on where you are in central NC. .2 is my call for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I really think this had the potential to cause a mess tomorrow if it starts in the afternoon here. You know as soon as it starts folks are going to leave work at the same time and the roads are going to be a wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RGEM goes nuts with QPF, over 1.5" QPF for central NC it appears. Don't have temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I really think this had the potential to cause a mess tomorrow if it starts in the afternoon here. You know as soon as it starts folks are going to leave work at the same time and the roads are going to be a wreck. The roads will likely not be a mess during the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The roads will likely not be a mess during the evening commute. I am talking about everyone panicking when it starts and leaving at the same time. Traffic is going to be awful for anyone who waits to leave when it starts no matter how bad it is or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RGEM did tick south/wetter and a little more icy, lot of cold rain though. Looks like a nice ice event for north of I-40, a little ice for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RGEM did tick south/wetter and a little more icy, lot of cold rain though. Looks like a nice ice event for north of I-40, a little ice for RDU. Still could be a little colder and further south. Wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is that huge warm nose still showing up for N NC on the latest nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I am talking about everyone panicking when it starts and leaving at the same time. Traffic is going to be awful for anyone who waits to leave when it starts no matter how bad it is or not. I don't get you. The roads shouldn't be icy. If everybody leaves at the same time (big if), how will that be any different than any other rush hour on a rainy day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RGEM did tick south/wetter and a little more icy, lot of cold rain though. Looks like a nice ice event for north of I-40, a little ice for RDU. Underestimating the arrival of the cold air. It'll probably get in earlier than the RGEM is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I don't get you. The roads shouldn't be icy. If everybody leaves at the same time (big if), how will that be any different than any other rush hour on a rainy day? Because people don't leave at the same time every day. Usually between 4 and 5. If this starts in the afternoon, more people will be jamming the roads at the same time than normal, no matter how bad the actual ice is. Better to be safe and keep up with when it is close by and leave before everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Because people don't leave at the same time every day. Usually between 4 and 5. If this starts in the afternoon, more people will be jamming the roads at the same time than normal, no matter how bad the actual ice is. Better to be safe and keep up with when it is close by and leave before everyone else does. Ok, I get what you're saying now. I still don't see it being a big deal. If we get heavy sleet that catches everyone off guard, then maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ok, I get what you're saying now. I still don't see it being a big deal. If we get heavy sleet that catches everyone off guard, then maybe. My thing is it doesn't matter if the roads are icy or not. Most people don't follow these things like we do. They will panic as soon as it starts, and traffic is going to be awful no matter if the roads are icy or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ok, I get what you're saying now. I still don't see it being a big deal. If we get heavy sleet that catches everyone off guard, then maybe.I will be caught off guard , if y'all get sleet! I'm looking out for you! People never leave work at the same time, there is no rush hour, ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is that huge warm nose still showing up for N NC on the latest nam? yep, 15z tomorrow 800MB is -5.6 but 750MB is +5.2...seems crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I will be caught off guard , if y'all get sleet! I'm looking out for you! People never leave work at the same time, there is no rush hour, ever! Brick thinks everyone is going to hit the road simultaneously, creating gridlock. I don't think that's likely, but we'll see. We're definitely going to get sleet, so don't you get caught off guard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 yep, 15z tomorrow 800MB is -5.6 but 750MB is +5.2...seems crazy. so is that ZR or IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Brick thinks everyone is going to hit the road simultaneously, creating gridlock. I don't think that's likely, but we'll see. We're definitely going to get sleet, so don't you get caught off guard! I do because that is what happens here. People panic as soon as it starts and jam the roads. People already drive like idiots when it rains. I wouldn't want to be around them when they are panicking to get home because there is sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I do because that is what happens here. People panic as soon as it starts and jam the roads. People already drive like idiots when it rains. I wouldn't want to be around them when they are panicking to get home because there is sleet and freezing rain. In RDU, it looks like this would either be rain or freezing rain during the evening commute depending on surface temperatures, with sleet mixing in a little bit later. Most regular folks don't get too alarmed with rain. They may not even know it's freezing rain until someone notices their car is iced up when they leave work. If it starts sleeting, you may get more of this panic you're referencing. I totally get what you're saying Brick, but the chances are extremely low for a road jamming panic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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