superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 12z Euro is a little heavier/further south with the wintry precip compared to the 00z run, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 12z Euro is a little heavier/further south with the wintry precip compared to the 00z run, FWIW. What is it worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That SW wind is screaming with gust at 30 at my place. 67 now. The blow torch is lit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wax the sled! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What is it worth? Excrement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Excrement. As long as it freezes man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 68 and sunny at 2:00. Not going to have a problem getting into the 70s today my friends! Tomorrow should be fun day, even if we only get to see a few sleets. I think the NAM is going to come in here big time in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 15Z SREF RDU still shows a changeover to a mix around rush hour.... If you take out the outliers with the higher temps, then it would be even sooner than that.. Gonna have to watch it for sure... Yeah it is warmer, but it was really cold before that. One day of warm temps won't do a whole lot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 15Z SREF RDU still shows a changeover to a mix around rush hour.... If you take out the outliers with the higher temps, then it would be even sooner than that.. Gonna have to watch it for sure... Yeah it is warmer, but it was really cold before that. One day of warm temps won't do a whole lot.. I agree, I don't think the ground temps are going to jump too much. Looks like a mess for travel Thursday evening into Friday. Edit: Soil temperatures. Soil temp. map most recent update reported central NC 40 to 50 deg. I predict that's not with our warm up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's 86 in Waycross right now. ROCKIN'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Meh, 18z NAM dried up. That's never a good sign having the NAM in the dry camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Meh, 18z NAM dried up. That's never a good sign having the NAM in the dry camp. Id rather things dry up at this point. We are looking to get rain, ice, then maybe snow late. Do not want to drive in ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wax the sled! TW Is it one of those sleds with wheels , for grass??Then wax away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RAH afternoon discussion keeps me interested: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF SFC COLDFRONT WITH AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE AREABETWEEN 06Z-12Z. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW..BEHIND THECOLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z WILL SUPPORT ANA-FRONTAL PRECIPBAND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...ALONG A LINE FROM ALBEMARLETO SANFORD TO WILSON...MAKING FOR A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THETRIAD AND TRIANGLE. EXPECT QUITE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH CONTRAST INTEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM LOWER 40S TO LOWER 60S.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:THE GFS AND NAM HAVE COME INTO BETTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLDAIR SURGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARDS THESLOWER/LESS AGGRESSIVE NAM.P-TYPE: LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF VIRGINIA WILLINITIALLY SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A FREEZING RAIN/SLEETMIX AS MID-LEVEL COOLING(STRONG WARM NOSE)LAGS BEHIND. THEN AS THEMID-LEVEL COOLS AND A SUBSTANTIAL/DEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD NOSE DEVELOPS(-6C)...PRECIP COULD END AS MOSTLY SLEET WITH MODELS INDICATING A.10 TO .20 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT CENTERED OVER THE CENTRALPIEDMONT-NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 05/00Z AND05/06Z. ICE AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ANYTIME THEREIS A LONG DURATION IN THE MIXED SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIONS OF THENOMOGRAM. ULTIMATELY THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE IN THIS EVENT COULDLARGELY BE DETERMINED BY PRECIP RATES...WITH MORE SLEET IN THEHEAVIER PRECIP BANDS PROMOTING ENHANCED COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE ASMUCH AS 0.10 TO 0.15 OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OFHIGHWAY 64 IS POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.50"POSSIBLE. ANY ICE ACCRUAL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO ELEVATEDSURFACES OWING TO WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAYS +70 DEGREEREADINGS.TIMING: USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM...THE CHANGE-OVER FROM RAINTO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z NEAR THE VIRGINIABORDER TO 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN(ROUGHLYALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64). WHILE THE CHANGE-OVER SHOULDCONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERNPIEDMONT/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...SUFFICIENTCOOLING TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP APPEARS TO SHORT TO ALLOW ANYAPPRECIABLE ACCRUAL BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.SINCE ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WILL BE DURING LATE 2ND/EARLY 3RDPERIOD...PREFERENCE IS TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THISTIME SO THAT FURTHER MODEL TRENDS CAN BE EVALUATED WITH THE 00Z/05MODEL PACKAGE.CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AND INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREAWILL SUPPORT COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WHICH WILL LIKELY LEADTO BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAYMORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR BLACK ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Check this out from Greenville, MS... you know, just your normal, everyday 26-degree drop in temperature in an hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ok I'll ask a question not that anything that I've asked here has ever been answered. How has the storm performed as of now. As forecasted or above or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ok I'll ask a question not that anything that I've asked here has ever been answered. How has the storm performed as of now. As forecasted or above or below This is not a normal setup for winter storms (at least for us). There will be a back door cold front that pushes in from the NE tomorrow that will interact with waves of moisture. The amount of precip that is available in our area and the speed that the cold air pushes in will dictate if this will be a real threat or not. So basically we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how the above features are behaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Greg just said he believes sleet/freezing rain will be falling near Raleigh by 4-5 PM. Surprisingly not playing it conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z comes back icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 To bad we cant get this to be snow, looks like a lot of sleet maybe 1" worth in some places but other than elevated surfaces it shouldn't be to much of a issue.....we need a "surprise" the pop up in the flow and get in here after the column is cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 To bad we cant get this to be snow, looks like a lot of sleet maybe 1" worth in some places but other than elevated surfaces it shouldn't be to much of a issue.....we need a "surprise" the pop up in the flow and get in here after the column is cold enough to snow. Is that even possible? I've looked at the H5 maps from about every model, and I can't find any energy that would be strong enough or oriented well enough to create such a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We soared up to 80 today, hard to believe that by tomorrow night we could be seeing sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why can't the precip. color grid and the maps ever match up??? 0.25 inch of ice is dangerous levels when it comes to power outages and trees coming down. This is not looking good for the Crystal Coast. Stay tuned! US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Here is an update on the freezing rain potential across Eastern North Carolina Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is that even possible? I've looked at the H5 maps from about every model, and I can't find any energy that would be strong enough or oriented well enough to create such a surprise. Not really unless they have it poorly modeled....hence the "surprise" part, of course the other possible "surprise" would be for the cold to be deeper quicker and allow it to snow more that way....of course both of these at this time appear to be not happening. I bet we get .10-15" ice on elevated surfaces and then maybe sleet and if we are lucky a hr or two of light snow that wont amount to anything....at least the roofs and vehicles might get white one more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not really unless they have it poorly modeled....hence the "surprise" part, of course the other possible "surprise" would be for the cold to be deeper quicker and allow it to snow more that way....of course both of these at this time appear to be not happening. I bet we get .10-15" ice on elevated surfaces and then maybe sleet and if we are lucky a hr or two of light snow that wont amount to anything....at least the roofs and vehicles might get white one more time. Yeah, looks like a long shot at this point. I'm still thinking .2 frozen here. That's my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys this is one of those that is awfully hard to watch from the outside! Check out this NOAA map from today (oops, won't let me post it) The WW advisories stretch from Southern Texas all the way through the MA, but completely miss the Carolinas and Georgia (outside of elevation). Here in SC we really don't even get in on the cold. We have one day of below normal temps (Friday forecast is 41 for GSP) and only 2 mornings barely below freezing. Other than that it is all 50s and 60s for highs and 40s for lows. Contrast that with as much as 3-7 inches of snow forecast for NW Mississippi and highs in upper 20s and 30s for a couple days with lows in teens and 20s. And much colder still just North in Tennessee and Virginias. It is just amazing to me that we used to always get more winter weather than places like Dallas, LA, MS, AL, but over the past 10 years or so, they have waaaay surpassed us SC folks, and it's not even close. Don't know if it's a lack of blocking or SE ridge or what. I can understand NC and North, or Apps getting way more than us, but it is very hard to swallow all these South Central places getting so much more, especially when it wasn't always like that. Sometimes it feels like I'm living in Florida (no offense Phil ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys this is one of those that is awfully hard to watch from the outside! Check out this NOAA map from today (oops, won't let me post it) The WW advisories stretch from Southern Texas all the way through the MA, but completely miss the Carolinas and Georgia (outside of elevation). Here in SC we really don't even get in on the cold. We have one day of below normal temps (Friday forecast is 41 for GSP) and only 2 mornings barely below freezing. Other than that it is all 50s and 60s for highs and 40s for lows. Contrast that with as much as 3-7 inches of snow forecast for NW Mississippi and highs in upper 20s and 30s for a couple days with lows in teens and 20s. And much colder still just North in Tennessee and Virginias. It is just amazing to me that we used to always get more winter weather than places like Dallas, LA, MS, AL, but over the past 10 years or so, they have waaaay surpassed us SC folks, and it's not even close. Don't know if it's a lack of blocking or SE ridge or what. I can understand NC and North, or Apps getting way more than us, but it is very hard to swallow all these South Central places getting so much more, especially when it wasn't always like that. Sometimes it feels like I'm living in Florida (no offense Phil ). It's the Oconee snow hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hearing you NNC people just got NAMed! Get the generators ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why can't the precip. color grid and the maps ever match up??? 0.25 inch of ice is dangerous levels when it comes to power outages and trees coming down. This is not looking good for the Crystal Coast. Stay tuned! US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC Here is an update on the freezing rain potential across Eastern North Carolina Thursday night into Friday. Interesting, no one is saying anything about any ice threat down here as of yet. Just a chance with only slight accumulation possible. Judging by those maps, we could be in for a bad ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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