Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Cool, thanks Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 But it does sound like the NAM is coming in more wintry for central NC, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 But it does sound like the NAM is coming in more wintry for central NC, too. yea a little slower and more precip at 36hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's a better map of what the GFS did at 6z. Heaviest precip comes in between 4-7pm and switch from sleet to snow also occurs during this same period. So cut these numbers in half to get a more realistic snowfall depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd take 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's a better map of what the GFS did at 6z. Heaviest precip comes in between 4-7pm and switch from sleet to snow also occurs during this same period. So cut these numbers in half to get a more realistic snowfall depiction. Screen Shot 2015-03-04 at 9.56.54 AM.png I would be surprised if we get more than 2''. Im waiting to see the next GFS run come up. The thing that worries me is the local mets down playing the ice/snow threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd take 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. Make that IP with some ZR on the side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GFS still has that NW to SE gradient, while the Euro maintains the SW to NE gradient. So bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM sure is wet but it's probably to warm for bulk of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM sure is wet but it's probably to warm for bulk of NC. That is a shame. That is the one model you really want on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a shame. That is the one model you really want on your side. Yep, that's the only model I want on my side. It's a lot of 33-34F rain with some light sleet at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep, that's the only model I want on my side. It's a lot of 33-34F rain with some light sleet at the end. It does seem to be at odds with the other models. Nam ticked up with frozen. I still think around .2 looks pretty good for a IP/ZR mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It does seem to be at odds with the other models. Nam ticked up with frozen. I still think around .2 looks pretty good for a IP/ZR mix. The RGEM did tick south but our temps didn't respond. It's still 24+ hours out so maybe tonight it drops a few degrees. So here are the temps, RGEM is by far the warmest but is the most amped/wet. Will see. Thursday 18z: RGEM - 42F NAM - 37F GFS - 35F Euro - 35F Thursday 21z: RGEM - 37F NAM - 33F GFS - 29F Euro - (not sure but at 0z Fri it's 30F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS coming in more amped, thus north, thus warmer.....bring on spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a marginal event. There are too many factors that need to come together to produce measurable winter precip. The far more likely scenario is rain, with a tiny amount of ice. With a low of 19 it will freeze, but I don't expect the event to at all significant otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Never bet against the warmer trend. It's unbreakable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Totals down on the GFS. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Totals down on the GFS. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a marginal event. There are too many factors that need to come together to produce measurable winter precip. The far more likely scenario is rain, with a tiny amount of ice. With a low of 19 it will freeze, but I don't expect the event to at all significant otherwise. Still may be some issues with road conditions on Friday morning. Some schools may run on a delay in central NC. Moving targets are hard to hit, would like to see some of the runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From Alan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today's highs in central NC are forecast around 70 (including SREF), but it looks like we'll be tough to break low 60s. Any thoughts on if that makes this a colder event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From Alan: I'm just outside the "F", but clearly in the "U"I'm looking forward to spring and the time change this weekend will let me enjoy my yard work when I get home and have an extra hour or two , to do so! Glad this dumpster fire winter was over! My projection of 12" was way off! I ended up with 2 traces of snow, and about 2 inches of sleet! Since traces = 0, and if they don't count sleet as snow, then I had 0% of avg, if they count sleet, then I'm at 25% of climo! Truly a sad winter in general, but after the blockbuster forecasts, it hurts even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From Alan: Don't agree on the freezing rain. We don't have a cold air mass in place before precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today's highs in central NC are forecast around 70 (including SREF), but it looks like we'll be tough to break low 60s. Any thoughts on if that makes this a colder event? Give it time. It was 56 here two hours ago. 69.4º at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Today's highs in central NC are forecast around 70 (including SREF), but it looks like we'll be tough to break low 60s. Any thoughts on if that makes this a colder event? WRAL has a high of 76. RAH has a high of 74. Only 59 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's going to get into the 70s with no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WRAL has a high of 76. RAH has a high of 74. Only 59 now. It's 70 here at the moment. Be patient. It didn't underperform. The sun is scorching. It's almost hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Don't agree on the freezing rain. We don't have a cold air mass in place before precip starts. The freezing rain is most likely a culprit of not having the -15C layer saturated. It can sustain itself with CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Those maps you are posting are showing "Snowfall totals"... I still think we see a changeover to freezing rain/sleet toward the end of this tomorrow evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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