mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like a major ice storm for NE NC. Pretty identical to the 18z run, TBH. Pack's OMG run. Yeah, looks real bad up in RAH area and N! I'm waiting on Bricks analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS doesn't appear to be impressive. Looks like the totals went up some on the clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like the totals went up some on the clown map.I can now go to sleep!Hope y'all enjoy your sleet! That's all I've had all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Saw the map at the other board. Has 3 to 6 for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS could definitely provide a messy rush hour on thursday for raleigh. What a crazy 3 days of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So how long does WRAL ignore the model trends this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Saw the map at the other board. Has 3 to 6 for Wake. Yeah, it actually is a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So how long does WRAL ignore the model trends this time? It's still not a big deal yet. Keep the trends going tomorrow and they'll cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's still not a big deal yet. Keep the trends going tomorrow and they'll cave. baby steps is the key, small changes are more believable than big ones especially in this range, it wouldnt take to many more south shifts to get back to what the models had for us over the weekend.....anything more than a dusting is bonus at this point anyways.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That has got to be one of the strongest fronts i've ever seen. I don't think i've ever seen such a sharp gradient in temps from 925mb to the surface. Literally in the span of a few miles there is a 10 degree drop in temps. When it goes through ga temps at 950mb go from around 14c in athens to -2c in atlanta. and look at the gradient in surface temps across the carolinas...it goes from low 80s to 40s in the the blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So how long does WRAL ignore the model trends this time? theyll put up a call map morning of. still not sure this will be a legit event. tomorrows run will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, sounds like the cold and precip have been moving further and further south every run on the models today. Local TV mets still saying RDU will only get rain as the cold will come too late after the precip is out. Fishel just stated the ensembles are hinting at some frozen precip late Thursday, lingering into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wouldn't surprised to see this trend a little colder at the sfc given the HP setup. The CAD front on this one means business. Not necessarily aloft, however, given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wouldn't surprised to see this trend a little colder at the sfc given the HP setup. The CAD front on this one means business. Not necessarily aloft, however, given the setup. Thats the main thing that will hurt us is the profile sucks for anything other than ZR/sleet, we need the cold to be faster and get deeper quicker to really cash in on anything at all....runs look better everytime though so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Unless the ensembles say it, Fishel isn't saying it. He absolutely loves those ensembles. RAH morning discussion (as of 4AM) are not impressed for triangle. They mention that ice accrual really shouldn't be an issue this far south ,but black ice could warrant an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 21 mins · Please Share! We know its hard to believe after temperatures well into the 70s today, but freezing rain and sleet is expected across E NC Thursday night and possibly through Friday as well! See attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 21 mins · Please Share! We know its hard to believe after temperatures well into the 70s today, but freezing rain and sleet is expected across E NC Thursday night and possibly through Friday as well! See attached. I wouldnt mind sleet so much but the ZR will suck, the trees and vehicles will ice up nice but the ground and roads will stay wet unless we can mix quite a bit of sleet into it, and even then temps in teh mid 20's might not be enough to do it. Really hope we can keep the QPF around long enough to get a period of snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I did read RAH's discussion and they were more focused on the freezing rain (~.1" or so). But they did add more sleet to my particular grid forecast. Thursday Rain or freezing rain before 4pm, then freezing rain between 4pm and 5pm, then freezing rain and sleet likely after 5pm. Temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. North wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely before 9pm, then a slight chance of freezing rain between 9pm and 11pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 6z GFS is bullish in Hampton. Knowing Wakefield they'll up the totals as the event is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Congrats to DC! Maybe they can quit crying in the MA forum now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM still looks good for me. Looks like a bigger deal on the NAM than the local TV mets and RAH seem to be thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM still looks good for me. Looks like a bigger deal on the NAM than the local TV mets and RAH seem to be thinking. Post a map man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Post a map man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thanks. Not bad. I was hoping Brick would post the snow map he was looking at somewhere else, so we could compare the trends. Anyway, that looks like a decent little round of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z sref is definitely colder for GSO. Looks to go below freezing around 2pm tomorrow with over .25 of precip to fall afterwards. The predominant p-type is sleet during the frozen precip times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thanks. Not bad. I was hoping Brick would post the snow map he was looking at somewhere else, so we could compare the trends. Anyway, that looks like a decent little round of sleet. The Feb 16th sleet fest was about 0.59" QPF of sleet, NAM is spitting out .36", GFS 0z spit out 0.4" and 6z spit out about .3" with freezing rain. UK generally agrees with the amounts of NAM/GFS, just not sure whether it's sleet/frzn. Euro is more freezing rain than sleet. RGEM is 99% rain, hopefully that changes at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Feb 16th sleet fest was about 0.59" QPF of sleet, NAM is spitting out .36", GFS 0z spit out 0.4" and 6z spit out about .3" with freezing rain. UK generally agrees with the amounts of NAM/GFS, just not sure whether it's sleet/frzn. Euro is more freezing rain than sleet. RGEM is 99% rain, hopefully that changes at 12z today. Thanks you sir. Looks like we have a pretty good handle on what we're looking at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thanks you sir. Looks like we have a pretty good handle on what we're looking at now. Yeah, best case, assuming we want a ice event...0.25" of IP with a 0.1" of freezing rain. If by some miracle that last wave that develops and overperforms but doubt that. Or I guess if the cold gets in a little quicker. If I was a betting man I would bet 0.1-0.15" of IP with 0.1-0.15" of freezing rain. Slick spots tomorrow night regardless. I do hope school isn't cancelled! It will be fun to watch the models come in. And to watch the MA to NE model hug the snowiest model. For as much snow as they get they sure do weenie out and justify the snowiest model all the time. We atleast hug the least snowy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, best case, assuming we want a ice event...0.25" of IP with a 0.1" of freezing rain. If by some miracle that last wave that develops and overperforms but doubt that. Or I guess if the cold gets in a little quicker. If I was a betting man I would bet 0.1-0.15" of IP with 0.1-0.15" of freezing rain. Slick spots tomorrow night regardless. I do hope school isn't cancelled! It will be fun to watch the models come in. And to watch the MA to NE model hug the snowiest model. For as much snow as they get they sure do weenie out and justify the snowiest model all the time. We atleast hug the least snowy model. Haha that's true. I think your expectations are pretty good. I was going to say .2 frozen (IP/ZR) at the upper end. Unless we see something significantly different develop over the next 24 hrs, that's my call for Raleigh for the upper limit of what we'll see. Lower limit is, well, all rain. And I can almost guarantee you that school will at least be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sorry, I meant the GFS, not the NAM. Here is the map. It's been consistent with these amounts for Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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