packbacker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This reminds me of last March's event.... Edit: Looking back at that event, it wasn't the temps that were the problem it was the QPF dropped off as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 18z will verify ! CHS gets frozen and I get zip! Both NAM/GFS actually show wet bulbs at or below FRZ Friday, in essence, there could be a risk of some FRZ drizzle lingering around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Bernie says the cold will push this storm or snow line wednesday night thursday further south the trends should start showing up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Bernie says the cold will push this storm or snow line wednesday night thursday further south the trends should start showing up tomorrow. The trends have already come south, but yeah, I saw his video. I still don't think it will get us in the game. However, stranger things have happened. Let's see if tonight's runs keep up the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Been kind of busy with work, can somebody elaborate on a new possible wave showing up Thursday night or Friday? Is it only one model? Is that what laid down the crazy strip of snow to CHS on the 18z GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS still has the frozen precip time start at 7 AM Thursday. I'm still guessing a little zr, mostly sleet then 2 inches of snow. Probably a total of 3in of frozen precip in Hampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This will not reach RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 21z SREF looks a touch colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This will not reach RDU agree. rain and maybe a token sleet pellet or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 still a while to go and the models have been flip flopping quite a bit... so it is hard to forecast black ice will be a big issue friday though. The only reason the 21Z doesn't show p-type issues for wake is because there are some really high temperature outliers on thursday afternoon. if you take those, out, the temp goes down quite a bit and you get p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 still a while to go and the models have been flip flopping quite a bit... so it is hard to forecast black ice will be a big issue friday though. The only reason the 21Z doesn't show p-type issues for wake is because there are some really high temperature outliers on thursday afternoon. if you take those, out, the temp goes down quite a bit and you get p-type issues. yep regarding the black ice, although it is old hat now as the past 2 weeks it seems like i have slipped and slid when taking the dog out every morning. looking forward to spring and a yard that isnt a swamp and icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So.....who gets what? wintry vs rain vs spring vs winter. Who will win? LOL My thoughts on the matter in a new video. Thanks for watching and enjoy! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, the NAM is much further south again... this is going to be a good run for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, the NAM is much further south again... this is going to be a good run for some.Can I get a map with that? Thanks!I hope Bricks asleep, or maybe he can post a map from the model site he uses!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, the NAM is much further south again... this is going to be a good run for some. Now is this a Packbacker OMG Holy Crap much farther south? Or much farther south with the 1/2" snow line by 10 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now is this a Packbacker OMG Holy Crap much farther south? Or much farther south with the 1/2" snow line by 10 miles? It's significantly further south than past runs of the NAM. Probably ends as snow here and maybe RDU. Not a lot, but something is better than nothing. In other news Charleston, WV got up to 64 today (and is 60 now) and is under a Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" of snow Wednesday night and is forecasted to have a low of 2 degrees on Thursday night. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now is this a Packbacker OMG Holy Crap much farther south? Or much farther south with the 1/2" snow line by 10 miles?This is a you will get more snow from this than the last crap fest ! By you, I mean you, rain_cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's significantly further south than past runs of the NAM. Probably ends as snow here and maybe RDU. Not a lot, but something is better than nothing. In other news Charleston, WV got up to 64 today (and is 60 now) and is under a Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" of snow Wednesday night and is forecasted to have a low of 2 degrees on Thursday night. WOW. That's some Denver-ish weather right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is a you will get more snow from this than the last crap fest ! By you, I mean you, rain_cold I hope so. I was very disappointed at the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not much snow outside of the NC Mtns. 850 temp is below freezing for the entire piedmont and C NC, but just above 850 it's an absolute torch. Looks like mostly sleet for the end for anyone east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not much snow outside of the NC Mtns. 850 temp is below freezing for the entire piedmont and C NC, but just above 850 it's an absolute torch. Looks like mostly sleet for the end for anyone east of the mountains. Yea, even here the warm nose is there until the last 3 hours of the event. Very high up too, 825 all the way up to 675 in some of the intervals on the NAM. Also of concern is that the warm nose has tended to be stronger than modeled:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm all in for the Friday morning surprise wave!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, sounds like the cold and precip have been moving further and further south every run on the models today. Local TV mets still saying RDU will only get rain as the cold will come too late after the precip is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ew at that mega warm nose above 850 mb on the NAM. That's nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ew at that mega warm nose above 850 mb on the NAM. That's nasty!Sleet ! Learn to love it! No snow for years to come! It's going the way of the -NAO, for my area anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ew at that mega warm nose above 850 mb on the NAM. That's nasty! What is it about NC and the warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS doesn't appear to be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS doesn't appear to be impressive.It's ok ! Hug the NAM, Eukie, RGEM and SREF GFS all alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS doesn't appear to be impressive. Looks like a major ice storm for NE NC. Pretty identical to the 18z run, TBH. Pack's OMG run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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