Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ticked further south again, we go below freezing just after 18z, QPF was a little lighter but definitely a better run. Solid freezing rain to IP event. Slightly better does not deserve a double holy crap or even a holy crap. That would be like Burger going Boom for some flurries. That's false advertising man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z GFS "snow map" Edit: Don't know why it's showing that frozen QPF hole in the triad, it had a lot of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Slightly better does not deserve a double holy crap or even a holy crap. That would be like Burger going Boom for some flurries. That's false advertising man. LOL...I was just looking at the SLP track and temps which was definitely colder and a tick further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 18z GFS is a little better: p-types at hour 48 (backing in from NE): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_048_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 p-types at hour 54: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 6 hour precip at hour 54: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_precip_p06.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p06&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mike Maze says the threat is very minimal at this point... Good stance I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Congrats Charleston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Congrats Charleston! calling BS on that precip hole over the triangle when temps plummet That was another nice shift...let's see what 0z runs have for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Congrats Charleston! Huntington, WV FTW. 'Tis a rare situation where they do better than Charleston, WV. (I know you were talking about the random fantasy wintry precip over Charleston, SC.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, it's weird. That cool cat Rain_Cold was wondering why the GFS snow map has the cutoff NW to SE through NC but the Euro has it SW to NE. It's weird. And what's with the dry slot through central GA into SC? What's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, it's weird. That cool cat Rain_Cold was wondering why the GFS snow map has the cutoff NW to SE through NC but the Euro has it SW to NE. It's weird. And what's with the dry slot through central GA into SC? What's causing that? The GFS is causing that, LOL...I fully expect to get NAM'd/RGEM'd/GFS'd/UK'd/Euro'd tonight. If not we toss until the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS is causing that, LOL...I fully expect to get NAM'd/RGEM'd/GFS'd/UK'd/Euro'd tonight. If not we toss until the 12z runs tomorrow. Haha ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 By the way, the hi-res NAM shows .15" ip and .25" of fzrn for Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z looks a little icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice to see its not going away at least, I prefer baby steps to big jumps we get this same trend to more or less continue till Thurs and we might actually get something to make this thread legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, it's weird. That cool cat Rain_Cold was wondering why the GFS snow map has the cutoff NW to SE through NC but the Euro has it SW to NE. It's weird. And what's with the dry slot through central GA into SC? What's causing that? I could see NE NC outperforming all of us due to timing, but it does seem strange for RDU to dramatically outperform GSO in one of these situations, so I might lean more towards the Euro. Also, GSO/PGV always beat RDU in snowfall (Packbacker's Rule), so there's that. I think Packbacker might be on anti-depressants or something. I've never seen him so positive. I still have my doubts on this one, which is why I haven't posted much (also, it's been the week from hell), but today's trends have piqued my interest. --- As a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if the NW Piedmont and foothills don't get out of the 50s tomorrow. It seems like we often get some wedging that holds down temperatures in these situations, though I am probably weenieing out and will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I could see NE NC outperforming all of us due to timing, but it does seem strange for RDU to dramatically outperform GSO in one of these situations, so I might lean more towards the Euro. Also, GSO/PGV always beat RDU in snowfall (Packbacker's Rule), so there's that. I think Packbacker might be on anti-depressants or something. I've never seen him so positive. I still have my doubts on this one, which is why I haven't posted much (also, it's been the week from hell), but today's trends have piqued my interest. Good to have you back on board! What's the EPS mean like for GSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I could see NE NC outperforming all of us due to timing, but it does seem strange for RDU to dramatically outperform GSO in one of these situations, so I might lean more towards the Euro. Also, GSO/PGV always beat RDU in snowfall (Packbacker's Rule), so there's that. I think Packbacker might be on anti-depressants or something. I've never seen him so positive. I still have my doubts on this one, which is why I haven't posted much (also, it's been the week from hell), but today's trends have piqued my interest. If we continue to see trends in this direction, I really think you will get at least the inch that you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Good to have you back on board! What's the EPS mean like for GSO? The mean on the WB meteograms have ~2.25" of wintry precip with every single member onboard for at least something wintry. If we continue to see trends in this direction, I really think you will get at least the inch that you want. Yeah, we'll see. It could definitely happen, though I think it's <25% at this point. This wedge means business at the moment. Charleston, WV is at 63 degrees at this time while it's 37 here (and Charleston is under a WSW for 4-8" of snow on Wednesday night). I really do wonder if we actually shoot up into the upper 60s tomorrow or if the wedge holds stronger than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think the biggest issue for potential impact is that the overnight temps on Thursday is supposed to be the low 20's. That will almost guarantee some delays for black ice on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z gfs for GSO: .16" ip, .39" fzrn. NO THANKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I could see NE NC outperforming all of us due to timing, but it does seem strange for RDU to dramatically outperform GSO in one of these situations, so I might lean more towards the Euro. Also, GSO/PGV always beat RDU in snowfall (Packbacker's Rule), so there's that. I think Packbacker might be on anti-depressants or something. I've never seen him so positive. I still have my doubts on this one, which is why I haven't posted much (also, it's been the week from hell), but today's trends have piqued my interest. --- As a side note, I wouldn't be surprised if the NW Piedmont and foothills don't get out of the 50s tomorrow. It seems like we often get some wedging that holds down temperatures in these situations, though I am probably weenieing out and will be wrong. LOL...I think it's a fun event, mid 70's tomorrow with ice the next day. I didn't even bring up what the UK does on Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z gfs for GSO: .16" ip, .39" fzrn. NO THANKS! I don't know how this could end up being ZR for our area. I definitely see this as a IP/SN or just RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LOL...I think it's a fun event, mid 70's tomorrow with ice the next day. I didn't even bring up what the UK does on Friday.... Interesting coastal development there on the UKMET. New Bern jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I have been taken from rain to snow to just rain you would think the weather channel not talk so confidently with there cast they have only been wrong 3 or 4 times now you would think they would at least talk about the other possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bernie is all in for the south trend...hmmmm http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-to-produce-major-delays-thursday-across-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 18z will verify ! CHS gets frozen and I get zip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Kind of a backwards storm for us. Usually we have this 50/50 that always scoots out faster as we get inside 48 hours and we have a HP sliding out to sea with the SLP trying to catch it. Now we have the SE ridge with a HP pressing down on a wave. Only fair the SE ridge weakens a little quicker and the HP slides in a little quicker, that's been the trend all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Kind of a backwards storm for us. Usually we have this 50/50 that always scoots out faster as we get inside 48 hours and we have a HP sliding out to sea with the SLP trying to catch it. Now we have the SE ridge with a HP pressing down on a wave. Only fair the SE ridge weakens a little quicker and the HP slides in a little quicker, that's been the trend all winter... This is going to come down to the orientation of the front and how far south it gets. If it's more east-west, then we could have a stronger push into the piedmont and foothills. If it's SW to NE then we will escape the frozen / freezing precip in the foothills. Right now it looks to be a northern / northeastern NC special. Will be interesting to see if tonight's runs trend any farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z GFS "snow map" Edit: Don't know why it's showing that frozen QPF hole in the triad, it had a lot of QPF. Yeah, it's weird. That cool cat Rain_Cold was wondering why the GFS snow map has the cutoff NW to SE through NC but the Euro has it SW to NE. It's weird. And what's with the dry slot through central GA into SC? What's causing that? That's an easy one, fellas. I'm in the absolute worst spot for this one, if you're looking for wintry precipitation. The mountains will block the immediate lee of the Apps from getting the cold air until long after the RDU area has received it. The backdoor cold front will sink you to freezing, while I'm languishing in the mid 40s. It sucks, but what can you do? Downsloping, FTW!! See for yourself: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's the next temperature frame for good measure. Look at Oconee near 50, while RDU is at 26. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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