Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 March sun angle and warm ground , save the day! Lol But that can be counteracted by dynamic cooling ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 packbacker, I hope that you will report on the EPS for us. I'm wondering if it continues the theme of the day of colder, and more moisture further south after the front passes. EDIT...and hopefully someone will tell us what the UKMET has on the detailed maps. Where's superjames????? I guess he's still all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well, NWS in Raleigh is not impressed: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: BY 12Z ON THURSDAY...PRECIPIATIONASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE WORKED INTONORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME ALL MODELS ARE HINTING ATTHE FORMATION OF A SMALL MESO-LOW FORMING OVER UPSTATE SOUTHCAROLINA. THIS COULD ACT TO TEMPORARILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION OVERCENTRAL NC DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FLOW BECOMES MORESOUTHEASTERLY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THIS FEATURE WILLQUICKLY ADVECT AWAY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT HOWEVERWILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATIONAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REALLY LAGS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINSON THURSDAY AND THE REAL DRIVING FORCE PUSHING IT THROUGH WILL BE ASURFACE HIGH BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE EXTREMELY WARMTEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY COME CRASHING BACK TOREALITY AS TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTH AND ONLYRISE BRIEFLY IN THE SOUTH BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES AND TEMPERATURESEVENTUALLY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT.THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE CHASING THE PRECIPITATION AND AT LEAST INSECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIXOF PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARYTIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH SLEET THE MOST LIKELYFROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE. NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY ALSO SEE ABRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE INITIAL TRANSITION AROUND 00ZBUT THEN ALSO CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTTHIS WITH A VERY WARM NOSE INITIALLY AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACEDROP BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ERODE RATHERQUICKLY AND JUST BELOW THAT AN EQUALLY STRONG COLD NOSEDEVELOPS...SUGGESTING THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL REFREEZEPRIOR TO HITTING THE SURFACE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MOST SREFMEMBERS POINTING TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ENDING PRIORTO THE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING P-TYPES. AS A RESULT NO ICEACCUMULATION AND VERY LITTLE SLEET ACCUMULATION ISEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING IN VERY WARM GROUNDTEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD WORK ITS WAYOUT OF THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ^ Yeah, Packfan, they're hugging the SREFs. Probably a good call by them at this point. Edit: Not necessarily a good call hugging the SRERs, but a good call in terms of their expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 packbacker, I hope that you will report on the EPS for us. I'm wondering if it continues the theme of the day of colder, and more moisture further south after the front passes. EDIT...and hopefully someone will tell us what the UKMET has on the detailed maps. Where's superjames????? I guess he's still all out. Mean matches up with the OP, has Wake Co from 2-3" and GSO in the 2-3" range too with 4" getting down to the NC/VA border. The control run is big for a lot of folks...see below. I didn't look at the 0z run so not sure what it had, but all in all supports the Op. Will see if this can trickle 25-50 miles further south the next 48+ hours. Edit: Also, keep in mind this is probably mostly ice (sleet), so .25-.3" of sleet would be a big deal. But any shift north takes this to a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Interesting that they are hugging the SREFS, but the SREFS have trended wetter and MORE FROZEN for RDU on the tail-end of that system.. a couple runs ago, it was mostly rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The UK was a big shift south, has 2" all the way down to RDU and 2-3" for GSO with 5" getting down to NC/VA border. The 0z run had nothing even close to the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I guess RAH and the local TV mets think it's going to be too warm for anything much or there isn't going to be much precip. Seems to go against the model trends for today, especially for northern Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Interesting that they are hugging the SREFS, but the SREFS have trended wetter and MORE FROZEN for RDU on the tail-end of that system.. a couple runs ago, it was mostly rain... SREF's are a cop out at 48-60 hours out, useless at that range. 12z runs tomorrow the short range models will be much more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RAH is probably going with their experience with these situations too. In fact, if we don't see any more trends and we get exactly what is shown by the guidance today, I'd give what they wrote about a 95% chance of verifying almost exactly (with the exception that sleet makes it south of HWY 64). Not a big event at all. That said, things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 But that can be counteracted by dynamic cooling ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I can attest to that. I always thought ice storms were out of the equation after Febuary this far south until I had no power for almost three days after March 7 of last year. Fortunately it looks like there will not be prolonged precipitation when temps are below freezing during this event..hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RAH is probably going with their experience with these situations too. In fact, if we don't see any more trends and we get exactly what is shown by the guidance today, I'd give what they wrote about a 95% chance of verifying almost exactly (with the exception that sleet makes it south of HWY 64). Not a big event at all. That said, things can change. Yes, just have to keep watching and see what the models do the rest of today and tomorrow. Just a little more precip and/or colder temps could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Guessing the NAM looks like monkey butt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes, just have to keep watching and see what the models do the rest of today and tomorrow. Just a little more precip and/or colder temps could make a big difference. Yeah man, if we could get that wave to slow down, we'd be in much better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Guessing the NAM looks like monkey butt? NAM say's HUH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Guessing the NAM looks like monkey butt? I definteily don't think this will be anwhere close to the Feb 16th event, but something a tad more impacting than this past Sunday's freezing rain event is on the table. NAM at 48+ hours...but tick tick tick...keep in mind the 6z NAM had virtually nothing frozen in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I definteily don't think this will be anwhere close to the Feb 16th event, but something a tad more impacting than this past Sunday's freezing rain event is on the table. NAM at 48+ hours...but tick tick tick...keep in mind the 6z NAM had virtually nothing frozen in NC. Sweet! I am now in the .5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I definteily don't think this will be anwhere close to the Feb 16th event, but something a tad more impacting than this past Sunday's freezing rain event is on the table. NAM at 48+ hours...but tick tick tick...keep in mind the 6z NAM had virtually nothing frozen in NC. Sweet! I am now in the .5" range. Snow maps are decieving I think...18z 4km NAM sounding looks like mostly rain maybe a bit of IP/ZR at the end for RDU...definitely not something exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RGEM looks OK at this range, temps right around freezing with heavy precip and this is hours 48-54 when the bulk of precip rolls in. RGEM is typically a little to far NW ad a little warm at this range. This is for RDU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow maps are decieving I think...18z 4km NAM sounding looks like mostly rain maybe a bit of IP/ZR at the end for RDU...definitely not something exciting. Yeah, that's why I think RAH is pretty spot on at this juncture. Doesn't mean it can't trend better...or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Holy crap....18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That would be nasty ice storm as temps are plummeting... UKie QPF output for after 12z Thursday...only a small amount of this frozen but it was big move south with the QPF... Of coarse we get that kind of moisture output when there isn't any cold air around. Thursday my high started out a couple of days ago being like 29 and now its up to 43. go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RGEM looks OK at this range, temps right around freezing with heavy precip and this is hours 48-54 when the bulk of precip rolls in. RGEM is typically a little to far NW ad a little warm at this range. This is for RDU.... Definitely ZR/IP on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Holy crap....18z GFS... Ok Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok Larry. Double holy crap...18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Double holy crap...18z GFS Well.....go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Double holy crap...18z GFS well spit it out man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well.....go on. Ticked further south again, we go below freezing just after 18z, QPF was a little lighter but definitely a better run. Solid freezing rain to IP event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pack is just trying to make us sweat it out. I already saw it man. Only slightly better for me, so whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.