Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It would be good for that wave to develop a little later and a little farther south or southwest. Developing in SC will likely hold the front up some. More moisture, but delayed cold transport. The front needs to settle through and then have the wave develop and move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS definitely spitting out more QPF after 18z Thursday, which is the window when temps drop enough for frozen precip. Below is QPF for after 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Such a big move for Brick's neck of the woods up through Norfolk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Two counties away from the pink. That's not too big of a move to ask for in 48 hrs, is it, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Need to shift that little appendage southwest a little! That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hi Res GFS looks good. 850s not quite there to support this as all snow. All we need is for the to 850s come in 3hrs earlier and we are looking at a good thump of snow. Good trends so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Two counties away from the pink. That's not too big of a move to ask for in 48 hrs, is it, Pack? LOL...good question. I haven't really even followed this until today, I did look at surface plots yesterday. It would be surprising to me if we don't atleast see some frozen precip, nothing big though. Just look at the temp gradient, there is no way models have where the freezing line will setup, we won't know until we get much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LOL...good question. I haven't really even followed this until today, I did look at surface plots yesterday. It would be surprising to me if we don't atleast see some frozen precip, nothing big though. Just look at the temp gradient, there is no way models have where the freezing line will setup, we won't know until we get much closer. Yeah, that's a pretty tight gradient. I am not worried about ZR, so I don't care too much about surface temps right now. I would like to see the mid levels cool and the precip hang out later. Asking too much, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Such a big move for Brick's neck of the woods up through Norfolk.... Maybe we can get it to creep a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, that's a pretty tight gradient. I am not worried about ZR, so I don't care too much about surface temps right now. I would like to see the mid levels cool and the precip hang out later. Asking too much, I'm sure. Cold will be coming in as a backdoor cold front; whereas folks in NE NC will see the cold first. This will help put the Triangle and points NE in the game to see some wintery accumulations (either ice or snow). Things will still have to go just right but this could be fun tracking. Even the temps will be interesting on Thursday. Most will wake up to 50s and 60s but then fall into the 20s and 30s in the afternoon especially in the NE sections. Nothing really to lose but maybe we can score one more to end the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Cold will be coming in as a backdoor cold front; whereas folks in NE NC will see the cold first. This will help put the Triangle and points NE in the game to see some wintery accumulations (either ice or snow). Things will still have to go just right but this could be fun tracking. Even the temps will be interesting on Thursday. Most will wake up to 50s and 60s but then fall into the 20s and 30s in the afternoon especially in the NE sections. Nothing really to lose but maybe we can score one more to end the year. Yeah, it's kind of a cool event, with temps plummeting, even 2-3 hours of sleet/freezing rain would be fun to watch. The UK definitely ticked south and ends as some light frozen stuff for RDU, I would imagine for NE of RDU it's even better. It was actually a fairly nice shift south from it's 0z run. The 0z run wasn't even close to anything frozen for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That would be nasty ice storm as temps are plummeting... UKie QPF output for after 12z Thursday...only a small amount of this frozen but it was big move south with the QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Minimum 2-m temperature for the last 3 runs for GSO on the GFS while precip is falling: 0z - 38F 6z - 33.2F 12z - 28.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmm...12z Euro..a little wetter a little colder...this is probably mostly sleet but some snow too, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmm...12z Euro..a little wetter a little colder...this is probably mostly sleet but some snow too, I think. Couple more shifts like that and this thread's gonna light up. I'm still in the trace-one inch zone. 60 miles south would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmm...12z Euro..a little wetter a little colder...this is probably mostly sleet but some snow too, I think. ALEET! Definite trend with the 12z model suite. If it can trend one more time at 0z tonight, it could definitely be an event that has some impact on a rather large area. Especially considering the very cold temperatures overnight Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Couple more shifts like that and this thread's gonna light up. I'm still in the trace-one inch zone. 60 miles south would be awesome. My numbers increased from the 3" range up to 4"..... of course most of that is not sn, but it does look like maybe more ip than zr which is good news. I like the colder trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmm...12z Euro..a little wetter a little colder...this is probably mostly sleet but some snow too, I think. Looks better up my way. Wetter and colder has been the trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My numbers increased from the 3" range up to 4"..... of course most of that is not sn, but it does look like maybe more ip than zr which is good news. I like the colder trends Yeah, definitely. Hopefully, it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's the Eurowx map to compare with the one from WXBell to show how much is snow vs. fz/ip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Couple more shifts like that and this thread's gonna light up. I'm still in the trace-one inch zone. 60 miles south would be awesome. Yeah, that was a good run for the NC/VA border counties for sure. GSO is 2" of snow plus sleet. We are some sleet/frzn. Still 48+ hours out, we will see. Definite shift south, but may shift back north tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking more closely at the Euro, the wave/SLP is clearly slower than the 0z run which allows for cold to get in quicker and thus further south. It's about 3 hours slower, one more jump like that would be interesting. Will see, still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hopefully things keep trending colder, and it is less freezing rain and more snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Freezing outside atm. Sitting at 33 with wind and drizzle. This time tomorow may be 65 to 70. Fast forward 24 more hours and in upper 20s with frozen falling. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hopefully things keep trending colder, and it is less freezing rain and more snow or sleet. I'm not really that worried about a big ZR event. Surface temps will be warm initially, though they will cool quickly. Even if we get enough precip to do damage (remember some is not going to freeze initially and then some will run off), I would think it would eventually transition over to sleet and snow. Wet snow would stick on elevated surfaces well, but at this point, it doesn't look like there will be a lot of it. All this is predicated on the kind of amounts we're seeing now. Like I've said all along, if the wave develops slower, then we'd have more frozen QPF to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Freezing rain should not be a concern at all. Temps are in the 60s before this system rolls through. Sleet will be the predominate p-type with this storm, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Freezing rain should not be a concern at all. Temps are in the 60s before this system rolls through. Sleet will be the predominate p-type with this storm, IMO. We'll probably get a little of it down here. But I agree that the window is probably pretty tight for ZR, since the mid levels will be cooling, transitioning the precip to sleet, and then, if we're lucky, snow before it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We'll probably get a little of it down here. But I agree that the window is probably pretty tight for ZR, since the mid levels will be cooling, transitioning the precip to sleet, and then, if we're lucky, snow before it shuts off.March sun angle and warm ground , save the day! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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