superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Epic wind-driven cold rain!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Epic wind-driven cold rain!!!!! We are getting a Luke warm rain. Ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 33s and a few 32s showing up just north of the boarder now. CC shows the main transition line just along the VA side of the boarder as well. It should progress southward into the area just as the main precip moves out. Perfect timing as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I work in SE Durham. It either was a thunder, a bomb or a huge gun. Probably the latter. Avalanche cannon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Greg Fishel finally went non-conservative and busted. It pays to be extra conservative when it comes to ice and snow here, even in the face of criticism of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Greg Fishel finally went non-conservative and busted. It pays to be extra conservative when it comes to ice and snow here, even in the face of criticism of weenies. I don't think he was that conservative. Their approach lately seems to be to make it up as things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 33s and a few 32s showing up just north of the boarder now. CC shows the main transition line just along the VA side of the boarder as well. It should progress southward into the area just as the main precip moves out. Perfect timing as usual. Our only chance it would seem is that thin band of returns in Mississippi and Alabama that might make it south of the mountains and come through here in a few hours. That should be frozen I would think. Probably just a bit of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I don't think he was that conservative. Their approach lately seems to be to make it up as things unfold. No, he went non-conservative this time. He was saying sleet and ZR would get in here earlier than the models were showing. That was not conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We are getting a Luke warm rain. Ftw. That sounds hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Our only chance it would seem is that thin band of returns in Mississippi and Alabama that might make it south of the mountains and come through here in a few hours. That should be frozen I would think. Probably just a bit of sleet. Yeah, hopefully, it will hold together. It would suck to be blanked completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RWI is reporting snow. Has to be sleet, right? I'm 10 minutes north of the airport and its 100% cold rain here. Not sure what the deal is with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 No, he went non-conservative this time. He was saying sleet and ZR would get in here earlier than the models were showing. That was not conservative. Okay. The last time I saw I thought WRAL was saying it would get here around the rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Okay. The last time I saw I thought WRAL was saying it would get here around the rush hour. They may have changed it this morning. I didn't look at it. I was watching Greg yesterday. That's when I heard him say it. Anyway, WWAs issued area wide for.......Black Ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 They may have changed it this morning. I didn't look at it. I was watching Greg yesterday. That's when I heard him say it. Anyway, WWAs issued area wide for.......Black Ice! I'm going to leave work early! My roads are soaked , and if everybody leaves at 5, my commute would be gridlocked! I'm gonna out smart them and leave early! Don't want to be a lemming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah, hopefully, it will hold together. It would suck to be blanked completely. We get black ice to look forward to atleast, . We should see a few sleet pellets between 7-8pm. It's nice to see the MA again get another 150% climo season with another over-achieving snow storm. Regression to the mean is going to be tough for them, eventually, always got to pay the piper... I think back to that stretch we had from 2000-2004 where we had like 60+" of snow, which was an insane streak. We have been paying for that streak for 11 years now, where we have only totaled 43". I think the MA/NE are going to be ruing the regression to the mean sooner or later...#regressionFTL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We get black ice to look forward to atleast, . We should see a few sleet pellets between 7-8pm. It's nice to see the MA again get another 150% climo season with another over-achieving snow storm. Regression to the mean is going to be tough for them, eventually, always got to pay the piper... I think back to that stretch we had from 2000-2004 where we had like 60+" of snow, which was an insane streak. We have been paying for that streak for 11 years now, where we have only totaled 43". I think the MA/NE are going to be ruing the regression to the mean sooner or later...#regressionFTL.... Haha...it's just so astounding that it's so hard to get snow here. Central Alabama has no problem getting snow. Dallas has no problem getting snow. But the SE is just in a slump when it comes to good snowstorms. We have to nickel and dime our way to climo. We had two legitimate winter events this year. There was an inch of sleet in one and 6" of snow in the other. So sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Heavy rain blowing down the street in tropical-like sheets with the gusty wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Haha...it's just so astounding that it's so hard to get snow here. Central Alabama has no problem getting snow. Dallas has no problem getting snow. But the SE is just in a slump when it comes to good snowstorms. We have to nickel and dime our way to climo. We had two legitimate winter events this year. There was an inch of sleet in one and 6" of snow in the other. So sad. We will come out of the funk, eventually. Richmond broke out of there slump this winter, so did BNA. I think next year we will have another nino, let's just hope whatever we need to get some blocking comes together. We should see this band back in the mtns rolls through in a few hours for some light sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Also, I think we are going to get a big winter, possibly a couple back to back, 12-15" type winters. We are super overdue for a 10"+ winter. Going on 12 years now, longest streak before was 7 and that only happened twice in 130 years. We typically average about 3 10"+ seasons every 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Also, I think we are going to get a big winter, possibly a couple back to back, 12-15" type winters. We are super overdue for a 10"+ winter. Going on 12 years now, longest streak before was 7 and that only happened twice in 130 years. We typically average about 3 10"+ seasons every 10 years. Does it have anything to do with the base AMO or PDO states? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Finally seeing some sleet mixing in here in Eden. About a 50/50 mix right now. Temperature is 34.2 with a dew point of 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just started getting some sleet to mix in! 37.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We get black ice to look forward to atleast, . We should see a few sleet pellets between 7-8pm. It's nice to see the MA again get another 150% climo season with another over-achieving snow storm. Regression to the mean is going to be tough for them, eventually, always got to pay the piper... I think back to that stretch we had from 2000-2004 where we had like 60+" of snow, which was an insane streak. We have been paying for that streak for 11 years now, where we have only totaled 43". I think the MA/NE are going to be ruing the regression to the mean sooner or later...#regressionFTL.... Don't feel so bad bro. It just now dropped below 50 here...haha....49.3... epic cold!!! Don't think i'll see any frozen out of this one. Yeah, they are doing great up there today!! IAD should be around 85" for the past 2 season total now. More like an average couple of years for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Temp dropping again in Marietta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Does it have anything to do with the base AMO or PDO states? From a couple papers I read the NAO tends to lag the AMO, for argument sakes lets just say that lag is 15 years. The warm AMO started roughly about 1999-2000, so we should see a predominately -NAO for the next 25-30 years. That's if you believe in weather running in 25-30 year cycles. For example a warm AMO started in the 1930's and the -NAO cycle started just before 1950, roughly 15 year lag. That -NAO cycle lasted to roughly mid/late 70's. As you can see below the cool AMO cycle started in the 60's and the NAO flipped positive 15 years later. The latest warm AMO cycle started in 99/00 so do we see a long -NAO cycle start in the next year or two??? Some people think we see the warm AMO coming to an end "soon", but if that does then it blows this theory out of the water. But, just because next we see the AMO cool in the short term doesn't mean the warm AMO cycle is dead, there are blips in the 30 year cycle. We will see. I wish Webber was on as he would educate all of us on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A little redevelopment in south GA might nip some of us out of the slot. And that streak stretching through Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From a couple papers I read the NAO tends to lag the AMO, for argument sakes lets just say that lag is 15 years. The warm AMO started roughly about 1999-2000, so we should see a predominately -NAO for the next 25-30 years. That's if you believe in weather running in 25-30 year cycles. For example a warm AMO started in the 1930's and the -NAO cycle started just before 1950, roughly 15 year lag. That -NAO cycle lasted to roughly mid/late 70's. As you can see below the cool AMO cycle started in the 60's and the NAO flipped positive 15 years later. The latest warm AMO cycle started in 99/00 so do we see a long -NAO cycle start in the next year or two??? Some people think we see the warm AMO coming to an end "soon", but if that does then it blows this theory out of the water. But, just because next we see the AMO cool in the short term doesn't mean the warm AMO cycle is dead, there are blips in the 30 year cycle. We will see. I wish Webber was on as he would educate all of us on this. Very interesting. Hopefully, that will turn out correct. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Very interesting. Hopefully, that will turn out correct. Thanks for the info! Yeah, it's no secret why we had a very snow stretch from 58-73, we avg 10" a season. Our least snowy streak was the 90's....just look at the NAO plot above.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 So much for this being anything. Still rain at 32.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Been absolutely RIPPING here for about an hour. Melting initially, but has started sticking in the last 30 or so minutes. 1/2". Woohoo! Took forever to get a changeover though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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