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3/5/2015 Ice/Snow Event


Coach McGuirk

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From FFC: this is the block from the mountains that I've been anticipating based on history and

geography thus protecting ATL from any significant wintry wx to this point: It is the opposite of the

mountains holding in shallow cold when there is a wedge. You can't have it one way and never

the other way. Overall, the models did pretty well

in taking this ridge into account imo. ATL wasn't screwed to this point. This was expected.

"ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/  

REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A  

RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH  

TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST  

ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO  

UPPER 30S."

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NWS Raleigh:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM THURSDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF THE 850MB TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
SHOULD INITIATE THE CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO RAIN/SLEET MIX THEN TO
MOSTLY SLEET...BEFORE ENDING AS SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW. THIS OCCURRENCE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64...EXPECT RAIN UNTIL 7-9 PM THEN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS.

EXPECT SLEET ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH IN VICINITY OF
THE VA BORDER...MORE SO TOWARDS WARRENTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS AND
SCOTLAND NECK...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS (0.20 OF AN INCH OR LESS)
TOWARDS THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD NOSE
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL DETERMINE WHERE ANY FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.
CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING THE DEPTH OF
THE COLD NOSE...SUGGESTING MORE OF A SLEET THREAT VERSUS FREEZING
RAIN. IF THE COLD NOSE DEPTH TURNS OUT TO BE LESS THAN
EXPECTED...THEN FREEZING RAIN MORE BE MORE OF AN ISSUE. EVEN
SO...ICE ACCRUAL EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD SLEET WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE RATHER
THAN FREEZING RAIN. AFTER 00Z...ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT ALOFT
AND LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP BEGINS TO WANE AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET (ANALYZED OVER 200KTS OFF THE COAST OF MAINE AT 12Z) MOVES
FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MIXED BAG OF
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF THROUGH 03Z-04Z BEFORE PRECIP
DIMINISHES.

AFTER 04Z...ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE PLUMMETING TEMPS AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADWAYS. TEMPS BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...AND NEAR 20 FAR NORTH
TO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 FAR SOUTH BY 5 AM. THIS COLD AIR MASS
SHOULD CAUSE WHAT WATER IS LEFT ON THE ROAD SURFACE TO
FREEZE...LEADING TO BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD BLACK
ICE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WHILE THE BLACK ICE MAY BE MORE
SPOTTY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES. PLAN TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...STARTING AT MIDNIGHT...TO COVER THE BLACK ICE THREAT.
TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE
MORNING/MID DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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Looking out the window of my office in downtown, I am frightful of the commute home.  I don't know how in the world I will ever get home through such nightmarish traffic -- such gridlock.  Ug!

 

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It's not doing anything now. I was talking about if it actually started sleeting during the day. No need to be a jerk about it.

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My point was folks already drive like idiots when it rains. I wouldn't want to be caught on the road if it started sleeting and everyone panicked and left at the same time. It would be twice as bad, no matter if the roads were icy or not, because people panic and would be driving like lunatics to get home. 

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My point was folks already drive like idiots when it rains. I wouldn't want to be caught on the road if it started sleeting and everyone panicked and left at the same time. It would be twice as bad, no matter if the roads were icy or not, because people panic and would be driving like lunatics to get home. 

 

We might yet be able to test that theory.  WeatherBug shows a little mix/snow over RWI, like QC posted.  Maybe there's hope for the Triangle shortly.

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