downeastnc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 70 here in Greenville 40 in Ahoskie........heck of a front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It will be fun at least to see which model wins. The GFS has the surface freezing line in southern wake county by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 42.5 near downtown Durham. Dropped 10 degrees in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Also, most of the precip is done by 7pm. This seems to be trending unfavorably for ice lovers in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It will be fun at least to see which model wins. The GFS has the surface freezing line in southern wake county by 7pm. I think the GFS will be closer to reality. Already 43 at home and 46 here at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think the GFS will be closer to reality. Already 43 at home and 46 here at the office. Closest 32 degree reading to you is the Lake Anna airport in northern VA. Hmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sharp temps 37 degrees just north of Atlanta 75/76 degrees just south of Atanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sleet ZR. And Rain 41.2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 67.8 here in GSP. We are getting a warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just noticed a 15 degree difference in 4 miles in Cornelius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sleet ZR. And Rain 41.2 degrees You can't have ZR if your temp is 41.2 degrees, unless you are measuring in Kelvin. ZR requires the surface temp to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sorry can hear it and see little pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sorry can hear it and see little pellets That's just sleet mixed with rain need the surface temp below 32 to consider the rain freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sorry can hear it and see little pellets You also don't hear freezing rain, which is ZR. What does the sound of water freezing sound like? On the other hand, you can hear sleet, which is IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I don't see much evidence of that unless the 0z run was noticeably warmer or something. . Comparing the actual observed 12z soundings vs the 06z nam 6 hour soundings an LWX, they look very very similar. I'm sure you're right, I was just going by what I read in the MA forum by a couple fairly reputable posters. I didn't check the DC area soundings myself. I think they were just expecting a longer period of sleet than what they observed. I doubt it has any bearing on what we can expect in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 49 in Raleigh, 70 IMBY 18 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 KRDU now at 46 F. That's about a 20 degree drop in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This sure has had the forecasters stumped. Originally, it was supposed to rain yesterday (I cancelled a Dr. Appointment for my wife based on forecast). Was supposed to rain last night. Was supposed to rain "after 8:00 AM this morning" (They definitely will get that one right, but no rain yet). Now I'm wondering with the much later arrival of precipitation, if that will increase the potential of overnight frozen mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like the main transition line is running through the northern part of VA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 KRDU now at 46 F. That's about a 20 degree drop in an hour.Memphis is supposed to get down to 7 degrees tonight ! This cold Is cray cray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This sure has had the forecasters stumped. Originally, it was supposed to rain yesterday (I cancelled a Dr. Appointment for my wife based on forecast). Was supposed to rain last night. Was supposed to rain "after 8:00 AM this morning" (They definitely will get that one right, but no rain yet). Now I'm wondering with the much later arrival of precipitation, if that will increase the potential of overnight frozen mess? Interesting indeed, they have it over by 11pm here tonight and we don't go frozen till 7pm according to NWS but I suspect there will be IP in it pretty quick and we might be all sleet longer than forecasted.....I don't care though if we can just get it to snow for a few hrs at the end for a dusting that's all I wanna see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like the transition line is now just north of Richmond. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Good call, Jon. We should never expect cold air to get in here quicker than forecast. It's always slower. Thought maybe since it was coming from the north, the usual hold-up, the mountains, would not be a problem and it would make it in here quicker. Welp, no. Another example of why you should always go with the warmest model and the least wintry solution...and then it's probably best to even cut that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Good call, Jon. We should never expect cold air to get in here quicker than forecast. It's always slower. Thought maybe since it was coming from the north, the usual hold-up, the mountains, would not be a problem and it would make it in here quicker. Welp, no. Another example of why you should always go with the warmest model and the least wintry solution...and then it's probably best to even cut that down. Well we just dropped below 40 here in Hillsborough so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well we just dropped below 40 here in Hillsborough so...... Yeah, but if you look at temps upstream, the rate of decrease is much slower from here. Mid 30s extend northward well into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Update from NWS Raleigh: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR TAKING ITS TIME ADVECTING SOUTH INTO CENTRALNC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING TO LEVELS NEAR OR SLIGHTLYABOVE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERALDEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERNPIEDMONT. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT BETWEENASHEVILLE AND HICKORY. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATETHIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE FRONT RESUME A MORECONSTANT SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION.12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST THATTHE SFC CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY P-TYPE COINCIDES FAIRLYCLOSE TO THE 850MB 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. BASED ON LATEST MODELGUIDANCE...THIS 850MB FEATURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AT18Z...AND ALONG A ASHEBORO-DURHAM-HALIFAX LINE AT 00Z. THUS...THECHANGEOVER TO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THEEVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE TRIAD REGION...AND BASICALLY NORTH OF THETRIANGLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO FREEZINGRAIN/SLEET MIX TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE TRIANGLE AND AREAS EAST OFTHE TRIANGLE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHOF HIGHWAY 64/264 BY EARLY EVENING.TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST WITH BULK OF PRECIP EAST-NE OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALLAND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND30 SOUTH. THIS COLD AIR WILL CAUSE ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS TOFREEZE INTO A THIN LAYER OF ICE WITH THE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/RAMPSTHE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE SLICK CONDITIONS. THUS...THOUGH THEADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHERADVISORY (OR EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACKICE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 11 AM ORNOON...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE A DIFFICULT/HAZARDOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 38 in Manteo, 80 in New Bern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Let me know when your sleet starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Temp went from 68 to 56 in about 10 minutes..wow. Didn't expect to see that fast of a drop here..although a band of pretty heavy rain came through at about the same time so that probably helped. Similar drop in observations just south of athens. Averaging a degree per minute lol 11:05 57.7 54.8 90 OK 0.02 11:00 62.7 60.7 93 19 OK 0.02 10:55 66.7 64.3 92 OK 0.00 10:50 66.5 64.4 93 OK 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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