Poimen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 According to the 12Z NAM the surface freezing line will be at the VA border at 7pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just looking at the surface wind speeds and direction, the line stretches through south central NC. Even as far west as GSO and Winston-Salem the wind out of the north east now. The 1010 slp has formed in the southwest NC upstate SC region as shown by the models. It should now slowly drop further south southwest and eventually east. I'm seeing a bit of redevelopment in Louisiana that might translate into enough moisture while cold air is in place for central NC tonight. Probably some sleet. But we will see if the backdoor front can make more progress and maybe the slp trend stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 According to the 12Z NAM the surface freezing line will be at the VA border at 7pm tonight. That would greatly reduce the amount of freezing precip. Usually the NAM is pretty good with cold air movements in these types of situations. (but) RAH thinks the freezing line will be entering the Triangle around 5 pm or so. That's two hours early and 50 miles farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 20 degree difference from northern Durham County(47) and Raleigh(67). http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just FYI the NAM was way too warm in the DC area, especially with the warm nose above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Insane temp gradient. I am sitting right at 38 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That would greatly reduce the amount of freezing precip. Usually the NAM is pretty good with cold air movements in these types of situations. (but) RAH thinks the freezing line will be entering the Triangle around 5 pm or so. That's two hours early and 50 miles farther south. Going to be interesting to see how much progress the cold air makes......it is down into 30's just across NC/Va border, EMV down to 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It is 67 here at the office, and 12 miles away at home it is 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Front means business... Brad Panovich Meteorologist 9 mins · Facebook Mentions · Cold front on the move this morning. #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 According to the 12Z NAM the surface freezing line will be at the VA border at 7pm tonight.NAM sucks at temperatures, so I wouldn't expect that to be right at all, and just by current obs, it's way off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Front means business... · Cold front on the move this morning. Solak, what is that map of? Current temps or forecast temps? And if forecast temps, from which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 ^Current temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That seem to be an exact temp. Map it is 1 degree off for me it says 48 and we are at 47 definitely not expecting much trouble here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Thanks. If those are current temps, I'm not sure the Nam will end up being that far off. The freezing line appears to be way up in northern VA. Unless it comes screaming south, it aint gonna be freezing in the Triangle by 4 or 5 pm. RGEM and Nam ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Temp is dropping like a rock in Wake Forest. 47 there now, while it is 67 here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Google mesowest and click on NC, then set radius for 300 miles. You'll see every station temps , dos, wind direction current. This is the best way to track front real time surface conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From 47 to 43 in minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From 47 to 43 in minutes Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvanderhyde Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The danville Virginia was hoping for a long storm looking like long rain brief sleet blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just FYI the NAM was way too warm in the DC area, especially with the warm nose above 850mb. I don't see much evidence of that unless the 0z run was noticeably warmer or something. . Comparing the actual observed 12z soundings vs the 06z nam 6 hour soundings an LWX, they look very very similar. It is 67 here at the office, and 12 miles away at home it is 52. It's been fun watching the progress of this front overnight/this morning. This front is a rare breed. i've seen similar temp gradients with wedge fronts before but even there i don't think i can ever recall seeing such a sharp drop off in temps from the surface to 925mb. In fact even with those wedge fronts, most of the time they had become essentially stationary or only moving very slowly..unlike this one where there is a fast advancement of the colder air. Even though that temp gradient is extreme enough, over a degree or 1.5 per mile, later today it will be even more extreme with daytime heating..with a 30 degree temp difference over just a few miles. Maybe as high as 3 degrees per mile which is nuts. Nam has temps reaching the low 80s in southern sc...3 hours later it's in the mid to upper 40s. .Just do not see those types of temp drops with fronts very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Currently raining in Raleigh. Temperature at the airport is 64 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The danville Virginia was hoping for a long storm looking like long rain brief sleet blah Good deal, thanks. Put your location in your profile, if you get a chance, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 67 at the office now, and 12 miles away it is 46 in Wake Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 67 at the office now, and 12 miles away it is 46 in Wake Forest. Keep us updated when the front moves through. I've seen 5 degree temp drops in about 15 minutes earlier this morning in west ga but i think you will probably beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 With the onset of rain, there has been a 9 degree drop at KRDU. Currently at 55 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 With the onset of rain, there has been a 9 degree drop at KRDU. Currently at 55 F. Down 9, 23 more to go! It looks like it's going to take a very long time to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Keep us updated when the front moves through. I've seen 5 degree temp drops in about 15 minutes earlier this morning in west ga but i think you will probably beat that. The temp continues to drop in both places, but still staying about 20 degrees apart for now. Just crazy that it is only 12 miles away from each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Front is pretty much E/W oriented right along 64... Upper 30's/low 40's at the border... http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/?table=hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just dropped below 44 in Hillsborough, hopefully this rapid rate of cooling will continue..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Big pocket of 30's in NW Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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