Coach McGuirk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Latest GFS sounding here showing freezing rain starting at 7AM then slowing transitioning to snow before it ends. Mostly freezing rain and sleet though here in Hampton. My guess 1-3in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So who has spring fever?? Or y'all ready for more heartbreak with the models on the potential for wintry weather this week? My thoughts on it, in an all new weather video. Thanks for watching. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This should be an interesting little event. Cold catching up to moisture rarely works out in our favor, but I agree we might be able to squeak out 1-3in this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 72 wednesday down to 19 thursday night is indeed impressive. Curious to see if that works out. Will be a MAJOR bug killer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like DT buys it. Way too bullish. Pretty low probability we see 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This should be an interesting little event. Cold catching up to moisture rarely works out in our favor, but I agree we might be able to squeak out 1-3in this time. Im thinking it will be a sleet fest here. The upper levels dont seem to get favorable until the last couple hours if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both GFS and Euro show about .25"-0.3" QPF of frozen precip ice/snow mix for RDU with temps dropping into the upper teens overnight Thur/Friday. If that were to happen it could be a mess, this could easily miss though this far out...hopefully it does, done with kids missing school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ^ And Wake Co schools just announced they're closed the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both GFS and Euro show about .25"-0.3" QPF of frozen precip ice/snow mix for RDU with temps dropping into the upper teens overnight Thur/Friday. If that were to happen it could be a mess, this could easily miss though this far out...hopefully it does, done with kids missing school. By those runs, I predict a mess from Asheboro to Apex along 64 and points north. Would definitely present some problems with travel and schools closing. Looks like another icy mess similar to the storm we had last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both GFS and Euro show about .25"-0.3" QPF of frozen precip ice/snow mix for RDU with temps dropping into the upper teens overnight Thur/Friday. If that were to happen it could be a mess, this could easily miss though this far out...hopefully it does, done with kids missing school. The trend is your friend? Maybe by Thursday morning they will be back where they were over the weekend.....still think this system has better chance at over performing than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both GFS and Euro show about .25"-0.3" QPF of frozen precip ice/snow mix for RDU with temps dropping into the upper teens overnight Thur/Friday. If that were to happen it could be a mess, this could easily miss though this far out...hopefully it does, done with kids missing school. hoping this will trend south and east about 100 miles is all some of us need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The trend is your friend? Maybe by Thursday morning they will be back where they were over the weekend.....still think this system has better chance at over performing than most. I agree, and we had two sun dogs here yesterday...they were awesome I'd like to see the NAM run from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think we get any frozen precip around central NC like the Globals are showing or least anything that accumulates. I say this because none of the high resolution models (12K NAM, SREF) that I have looked at show it. It will be interesting to see which model suite wins out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think we get any frozen precip around central NC like the Globals are showing or least anything that accumulates. I say this because none of the high resolution models (12K NAM, SREF) that I have looked at show it. It will be interesting to see which model suite wins out on this one. Meh none of the hi res showed the 3.5" of snow I got last Tues either and didn't even hint at it till maybe 12 hrs before hand....but I doubt this ends up being anything like that. Still 2 days for the models to change around some, if they do go back towards their weekend solutions this thread will pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Meh none of the hi res showed the 3.5" of snow I got last Tues either and didn't even hint at it till maybe 12 hrs before hand....but I doubt this ends up being anything like that. Still 2 days for the models to change around some, if they do go back towards their weekend solutions this thread will pick up Isohume made some good points in Sunday's banter thread about why they may not be reliable for certain situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Isohume made some good points in Sunday's banter thread about why they may not be reliable for certain situations Yeah was actually some good stuff from him, he is pretty good with making it understandable to us mere mortals.....I would think the models have a decent handle of Thur by now and while it would be nice to see a few inches its not that big of a deal and anything beyond just seeing it fall will be bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Both GFS and Euro show about .25"-0.3" QPF of frozen precip ice/snow mix for RDU with temps dropping into the upper teens overnight Thur/Friday. If that were to happen it could be a mess, this could easily miss though this far out...hopefully it does, done with kids missing school. The trend is your friend? Maybe by Thursday morning they will be back where they were over the weekend.....still think this system has better chance at over performing than most. Certainly looks like it is trending better this morning with the Euro and the GFS. And it might not be much, but I agree that much would still be a mess. It all depends on the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Meh none of the hi res showed the 3.5" of snow I got last Tues either and didn't even hint at it till maybe 12 hrs before hand....but I doubt this ends up being anything like that. Still 2 days for the models to change around some, if they do go back towards their weekend solutions this thread will pick up And they overdid the precip here. Really hard to tell it seems just how much precip will be where. But the models do seem to be changing around for at least a shot of some wintry weather Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No one here talking about the NAM, but reading the other board it seems to be wetter and a little faster with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No one here talking about the NAM, but reading the other board it seems to be wetter and a little faster with the cold. Which other board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4k nam spits out .14" of FZRN and .15" of IP for Greensboro by hr 60 with more to come in subsequent hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No one here talking about the NAM, but reading the other board it seems to be wetter and a little faster with the cold. Yeah, the 12Z NAM is looking much better for NC than previous runs. Even so, it still isn't putting out as much accumulation as the globals. However, model trends are very important so maybe this will end up being something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The deal here is where and when the wave develops along the front. If it develops to the south after the front clears, then yeah, it could be a big deal. Otherwise, we're probably already looking at the max this thing can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The short range models are still useless at this point, 48-60+ hours out. Look at how far south the 12km NAM shifted since it's 18z run yesterday. I definitely don't think a big winter storm is for us a but a little sleet/frzn/snow is possible. 18z on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah was actually some good stuff from him, he is pretty good with making it understandable to us mere mortals.....I would think the models have a decent handle of Thur by now and while it would be nice to see a few inches its not that big of a deal and anything beyond just seeing it fall will be bonus He did put it in easy terms, I know Chris M. thinks he is one of the best there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmm.....this looks to be frzn to sleet to a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 North of Raleigh looks to get some significant winter weather on the GFS. Looks like the 12z trends thus far is to shift everything south a bit and there is a late wave of moisture riding the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 North of Raleigh looks to get some significant winter weather on the GFS. Looks like the 12z trends thus far is to shift everything south a bit and there is a late wave of moisture riding the cold front. Definitely a bigger deal on the GFS this time. Great trends just 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Need to shift that little appendage southwest a little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 North of Raleigh looks to get some significant winter weather on the GFS. Looks like the 12z trends thus far is to shift everything south a bit and there is a late wave of moisture riding the cold front. Yep, there is a late blooming wave/slp that is traveling through central SC 12z Thursday. This has been trending a little better the past few GFS runs, let's see if the Euro holds from it's 0z run. This airmass means business but do does the SE ridge. We won't know who wins until we get a little closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.