eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I would be wary of rain if I were in SE Mass. Maybe even along the eastern coastal sections. Guidance doesn't really show it yet. But if and when the models catch on to the southern stream wave, they are going to start showing WAA where they currently show CAA. That could be trouble with a marginal in-situ airmass. Even in this amplified scenario, I think everyone pounds eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Exactly what I have been saying....verbatim. Hey, we'll see.....I get 10" of more, I'll pay Kev's bill at the next GTG. I am all tunnel vision right now; I want that record for BOS quite badly. If I must somehow appease the reverend to get it, so be it. But I am near certain it does not work in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This run has more identifiable cyclenetic features... it's not just an ANA event on this run; it's an open wave low, and it is toting a lot of PWAT over the leading edge of the arctic doom do to having its origin near the Arklotex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This run has more identifiable cyclenetic features... it's not just an ANA event on this run; it's an open wave low, and it is toting a lot of PWAT over the leading edge of the arctic doom do to having its origin near the Arklotex Exactly. If correct, it changes the expectation parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 actually ..still looks ANA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There was no qpf in the previous 12 hrs, so what is the difference? 60 to 72 on 18z 66 to 78 on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This run has more identifiable cyclenetic features... it's not just an ANA event on this run; it's an open wave low, and it is toting a lot of PWAT over the leading edge of the arctic doom do to having its origin near the Arklotex The arctic doom sounds very ominous, and yet, I welcome its advances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If this comes, it pounds. Stream of moisture with this one. None of this -SN through dim sun that we've been getting out here for a month. If that southern stream wave can buckle the field a little bit, this things shoots much further north. Won't take much for baro leaf formation and blossoming precip. Everything is going to compress south in the end... but hopefully not after a surging precip field well into CNE. This NAM run is what I envisioned earlier today. We've seen this scenario many times before. Going back more than a decade, I always remember the ETA/NAM leading the trends on these waves that develop along a frontal boundary. Of course all the models have changed so much, it's probably just a romantic idea that the NAM would lead again here. But I still believe it is correctly indicating a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The arctic doom sounds very ominous, and yet, I welcome its advances. No confidence from me just yet. Could still be a NAM red-herring... Not much support. Still, cannot rule it out as like I said, the amount of lagging mid level jet dynamics is in question do to sampling/origin up over the southwest quadrant of the Arctic circle. We'll see. But it sure is entertaining. Perhaps my dream to see the seasonal snow total end within an inch shy of the record gets crushed and shattered before my very eyes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Impressive QPF in the Ohio Valley on the NAM. If the wave can mature a little bit more as it moves ENE, some of that might translate northeast with it. As of now the lift weakens. But we still end up with a moderate QPF event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 */ WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY...1) HIGHLIGHTS... - RENEWED OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALONG AN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT - PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW...PERHAPS HEAVY? - GREATEST IMPACT S OF THE MASS-PIKE...ESPECIALLY S-COAST 2) OVERVIEW... COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL STALL S AND OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMING A FOCUS FOR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ATTENDANT WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COUPLED WITH UNDERCUTTING RETURN S-FLOW /AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE/ YIELDS A MAINLY SNOW-EVENT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE S-TIER OF THE FORECAST REGION...MORE SPECIFICALLY S OF MASS-PIKE. 3) PRECIPITATION OUTLINE... GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION OVER THE REGIONAL CANADIAN / ECMWF. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME /D3-4/ WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CONSIDER THIS TO BE THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID...RAIN COULD BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...YET NEAR-PARALLEL FLOW AND LACKING DYNAMICS RESULT IN A LULL ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD OF DRY-WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART. THE MAIN SHOW KICKS OFF TOWARDS EVENING. AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT DIGS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS ANTICIPATE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE OFFSHORE ELONGATED LOW SUCH THAT ANOTHER OVER- RUNNING EVENT MATERIALIZES. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE OF THE WIND NETS A DRIVING NW-FLOW RESULTING IN UNDERCUTTING COLDER AIR TO THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ALOFT. LOOKING AT A N-S TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW LIKELY TO OCCUR MORE QUICKLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE QUICKLY- COOLING COLUMN ALOFT. IT MAY BE PERHAPS THAT SOME LOCATIONS START OFF AS SNOW. A SHARP N-S PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WITH LOCALES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST / CAPE / ISLANDS SEEING THE MOST WITH AN AVERAGE OF 0.6-0.7 BASED ON THE FORECAST CONSENSUS. ALONG THE MASS-PIKE...AN AVERAGE 0.1-0.2 EVENT IS ADVERTISED...SO IN-BETWEEN A ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6 EVENT. SHARP GRADIENT AN OUTCOME OF BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REAR OF THE TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE. 4) SNOWFALL... SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN AS MOSTLY ALL SNOW...COULD BE DISCUSSING WARNING-LEVEL SNOWS FOR THE IMMEDIATE S-COAST AND ISLANDS WITH ADVISORY LEVELS SNOWS N FROM THERE TO THE MASS-PIKE. THERE ARE WOBBLES WITH THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. EXACT STRENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE OVER-RUNNING EVENT ARE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. SOME HINT PER SREF OF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. */ THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD... WILL PREVAIL WITH A DRY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF CONTINUED WEATHER DISTURBANCES PREVAILING THRU THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. WINTER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 No confidence from me just yet. Could still be a NAM red-herring... Not much support. Still, cannot rule it out as like I said, the amount of lagging mid level jet dynamics is in question do to sampling/origin up over the southwest quadrant of the Arctic circle. We'll see. But it sure is entertaining. Perhaps my dream to see the seasonal snow total end within an inch shy of the record gets crushed and shattered before my very eyes... Why must you and your mighty hobbit feet seek to trample my dreams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 60 to 72 on 18z 66 to 78 on 12z. Since the 18z shows a slower system, the precip has not moved in at 60 hr, but had already for 6hrs at 66 hr on the 12z. That is why I used 24 hrs, not 12 hrs @ 72 and 78. Let's not get ridiculous here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Why must you and your mighty hobbit feet seek to trample my dreams? Muah hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Some fun to look at. 18z NAM snow from 60-84h per Meteocentre, JU-C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike northward. This statement, verbatim, is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This statement, verbatim, is correct. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Significant improvements on the NAM. Very much in line with what I was looking for. Gotta continue to be cautious, because this solution is within the envelope of previous cycle ensemble spread... so it could be an outlier. But I think this is legit. The NAM leads in this kind of setup. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 lol Any port in a potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You might want to slow down your posts a bit, you've given mistaken info twice on this particular 18z NAM model run. You might want to retract that statement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS holds serve. It's ridiculous how far apart the GFS and the NAM are within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Exactly what I have been saying....verbatim. Hey, we'll see.....I get 10" of more, I'll pay Kev's bill at the next GTG. Does kev even eat? 1 o'douls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike northward. Youre looking at something different if that is what you think it shows. Since another met has agreed with me, verbatim, what were you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You might want to retract that statement now. I think the NAM will eventually want to retract it's last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS holds serve. It's ridiculous how far apart the GFS and the NAM are within 72 hours. The GFS appears better than 12z, to me. A touch further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If anything, gfs bumped up qpf from better forcing? Is that the right termanology? south coast is certainly in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS holds serve. It's ridiculous how far apart the GFS and the NAM are within 72 hours. It isn't really surprising...remember the snow event not too long ago that it had over Montreal until like 36 hrs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS appears better than 12z, to me. A touch further north? Agree That's it's better for south coast but it's tighter with the gradient nw of 84 in CT and the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think the NAM will eventually want to retract it's last few runs. Probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 lolI never see eduggs so excited and its because the 78hr nam (which is usually too amped) was a carbon copy of what he envisioned.We all hope , but meh its the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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