Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was going based on this. Usually not very accurate when it comes to Snow changing to sleet/rain (lags behind) but not sure how it does on the reverse situation. Per this the R/S is just to the NW, ill let you know if/when I start mixing or changing over. Hope its a lot earlier than 4am.. I guess that looks pretty similar to the dual pol...but I wouldn't say it's racing south per dual pol. 4 am probably a tad late. but Bufkit looked like 3am for HVN...HRRR looks similar...maybe more like 2am. You should be a little earlier. But I think we may need to be patient right along the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, what does BOX do now? Their 10 pm update has less than an inch for Boston. If the GFS verifies, there will be a lot of upset commuters tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 With the exception of RGEM the mesos are paltry. The globals are robust however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, what does BOX do now? What I think they should do is issue a WWA for 2-4" because I think it's better to overprepare than have people expecting nothing and make the morning commute a complete disaster. What I think they do is ride the NAM since they've been conservative from the beginning and there's no good reason for them to change that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice thousand mile long line of precipitation on radar. GFS would even bring an inch or two out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So why do we think the NAM with it's nothing, is any more believable than the GFS with it's copious qpf?? The GFS has the support of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, what does BOX do now? I'd honestly probably hold pat. I wouldn't feel good about it, but I'd probably feel worse by ripping advisory 3-6 to the pike and hoping it works. I might increase the snow a bit in the southern zones where I'd have more confidence in the precip being meaningful later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm completely intrigued by this one. When does Bruce Willis decide to let the plane land or continue waving it off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Tough call for box.... Bust potential is there.... Really doesn't do much to change it now at this hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Must be some serious sleet on the border of CT and NY and back in to Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I think they should do is issue a WWA for 2-4" because I think it's better to overprepare than have people expecting nothing and make the morning commute a complete disaster. What I think they do is ride the NAM since they've been conservative from the beginning and there's no good reason for them to change that now. Too late now. Hopefully the NAM is more correct than the GFS for their sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS RGEM just landed wheels up sliding across Wills runway knocking both flags out of hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Stay the course. 1 inch falling at 7am vs 4 inches equally fuk up the commute. No one will blame the mets. Old man winter gets the blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice thousand mile long line of precipitation on radar. GFS would even bring an inch or two out here. Can see the heavier precip getting shunted S on radar. I think NWS BOX is riding the right call with their snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I think they should do is issue a WWA for 2-4" because I think it's better to overprepare than have people expecting nothing and make the morning commute a complete disaster. What I think they do is ride the NAM since they've been conservative from the beginning and there's no good reason for them to change that now. I agree. If we get less than forecasted, they will likely be relieved as opposed to being ticked off. I would take a blend of the NAM,GFS and RGEM and go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I guess that looks pretty similar to the dual pol...but I wouldn't say it's racing south per dual pol. 4 am probably a tad late. but Bufkit looked like 3am for HVN...HRRR looks similar...maybe more like 2am. You should be a little earlier. But I think we may need to be patient right along the shoreline. Thanks. Ill let you know when I start changing over, you shouldn't be too far behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 So why do we think the NAM with it's nothing, is any more believable than the GFS with it's copious qpf?? The GFS has the support of the RGEM. As much as people don't want to admit it...I think the RAP and HRRR is adding to the skepticism of the GFS/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Thanks. Ill let you know when I start changing over, you shouldn't be too far behind me. This site is good for monitoring p-type...you can submit reports via the app. No snow reports in CT yet...although honestly everyone may just be asleep. http://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/display/ping.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS RGEM just landed wheels up sliding across Wills runway knocking both flags out of hands. Yeah for you guys maybe you'll be fine...but north of you it's caution flags ripping in both hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS RGEM just landed wheels up sliding across Wills runway knocking both flags out of hands. Dude, Radar looks like you are getting ready to pound something very soon. Are you on Northern Edge of Town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This site is good for monitoring p-type...you can submit reports via the app. No snow reports in CT yet...although honestly everyone may just be asleep. http://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/display/ping.phppings mixed with rain here but I can feel the cold coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Can see the heavier precip getting shunted S on radar. I think NWS BOX is riding the right call with their snow map. what radar you using/watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's plausible...thanks for the response. NBC 30(Ryans station) has upped amounts to 3-6 inches (from 2-5 inches earlier) for the Southern Half of CT. They brought that north quite a bit since their six o clock broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's plausible...thanks for the response. NBC 30(Ryans station) has upped amounts to 3-6 inches (from 2-5 inches earlier) for the Southern Half of CT. They brought that north quite a bit since their six o clock broadcast. it's actually uncanny how closely their map matches mine now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Started an obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Harv's coming in in a few minutes...will be interesting to hear his take.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yes, it is lol. They had their heavier amounts confined to the very immediate shoreline at 6 pm. They have brought the heavier stuff way way north since then. I'm in Southington, so that makes me a lil happier to see I'm within theirs and your heavier amounts lol. I know, I'm a weenie tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Harv going meager pike region and 2-4 down to PVD, 3-6 islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Harv going meager pike region and 2-4 down to PVD, 3-6 islands. He showed two models (unnamed), but neither could have been the GFS. Tossed the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 03:00 PM 41.9 04:00 PM 40.8 05:00 PM 39.8 06:00 PM 38.0 07:00 PM 36.0 08:00 PM 35.2 09:00 PM 37.1 10:00 PM 37.1 11:00 PM 37.1 warming up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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