Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You responded to a post regarding the 12z EURO, which reflects what I said. I respnded to the 12z ens post about advisory to low end warning for the whole SNE region from north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I respnded to the 12z ens post about advisory to low end warning for the whole SNE region from north to south Yes, 1-3 here, 2-4 you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yes, 1-3 here, 2-4 you.Thats not an advisory.. And the ENS were more than that was the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tough call... 1) ANA's are very typically over-QPF'ed 2) The NAM (as the title of the thread relies...) has a NW bias big-time with major tropospheric components beyond 48 hours...definitely out there beyond 60 3) On the other hand ...several other guidance types flagged this potential going back several days...if perhaps it was merely lost until a better sampling time takes place; currently, lag dynamics responsible for initiating lift over the baroclinic wall are rounding the vestigial -EPO ridge structure up over Alaska...which means it is coming by way of airs over the Arctic Ocean proper. Not a lot of confidence in that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Depends on what you defined as meaningful...it gets 0.1" near CON...0.2" up to around the S NH/ S VT borders. 0.3" BOS-ORH-BAF Hopefully it is a sign that this will trend more robust as we get closer. A more robust solution should benefit everyone I think...you'll rain longer on the front, but will get destroyed when it flips over...maybe flash freeze. Hopefully the more dynamic solutions can start to show up. Maybe 3-6" for you? Can't be more than that... Thats not an advisory.. And the ENS were more than that was the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM not looking too good compared with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM not looking too good compared with 12z. Not sure I agree with that. Southern stream is bending the flow nicely. Could be a big precip maker in the Ohio Valley. Not sure it translates northeastward as everything is being compressed. I think it will. Maybe not this run... but eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM not looking too good compared with 12z. Actually, it's just slower and it's significantly better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gotta look at more than just the surface QPF. Look at 850 and 500... definitely more southerly component to the flow into the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM is a crush job for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM is SCHWEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Feet for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z NAM is a crush job for everyone Well, that scenario would get BOS the record for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM not looking too good compared with 12z. If you mean not looking good because it has more snow, than sure- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Maybe I'll be wrong, but I'd like to see the GFS and EURO OPs bite....getting to that time when OPs are more viable than ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If you mean not looking good because it has more snow, than sure- It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well, that scenario would get BOS the record for certain. It's a typical 18z NAM run, well north of all other models, but hopefully other models trend towards it. Verbatim it would put us well over 110 for the year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike northward. Youre looking at something different if that is what you think it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Significant improvements on the NAM. Very much in line with what I was looking for. Gotta continue to be cautious, because this solution is within the envelope of previous cycle ensemble spread... so it could be an outlier. But I think this is legit. The NAM leads in this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's a typical 18z NAM run, well north of all other models, but hopefully other models trend towards it. Verbatim it would put us well over 110 for the year though. 108" is all I care about, but it would be nice to do it with gusto in an all-snow event. That having been said, anafrontal action is, in my experience, about as able to be counted on as a Norlun. It would be just darling if some of the big boys could get on board for that; I'd love it, really. Bears watching but I think it's less than likely to be that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike northward. You might want to slow down your posts a bit, you've given mistaken info twice on this particular 18z NAM model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It actually cut back qpf in CT, RI and SE MA, and increased it pike north It increased QPF everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Youre looking at something different if that is what you think it shows. Comparing NCEP 24 hr qpf at 72 hr @ 18z and 24 hr at 78 hr@ 12z for NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The changes this run have nothing to do with QPF or any tendency to overdo QPF. This is a real change in the modeled synoptic evolution. If it's on the right track, this could be a significant (but not major) rain and snow event for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 108" is all I care about, but it would be nice to do it with gusto in an all-snow event. That having been said, anafrontal action is, in my experience, about as able to be counted on as a Norlun. It would be just darling if some of the big boys could get on board for that; I'd love it, really. Bears watching but I think it's less than likely to be that good. Exactly what I have been saying....verbatim. Hey, we'll see.....I get 10" of more, I'll pay Kev's bill at the next GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Significant improvements on the NAM. Very much in line with what I was looking for. Gotta continue to be cautious, because this solution is within the envelope of previous cycle ensemble spread... so it could be an outlier. But I think this is legit. The NAM leads in this kind of setup. I'm still not too confident that we see more than an inch from this. Hope your inkling is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Comparing NCEP 24 hr qpf at 72 hr @ 18z and 24 hr @ 12z for NAM. How bout you do it right and do 12hr instead of 24 hour since this is not a 24 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 oh, man -- that poor dude got pummeled... But yeah, this is an interesting run. I noticed the 00z-12z series toned down slight per run, then this marches heavily back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS jackpots DCA-ACY while the NAM jackpots MPM-BOS. Good to see model agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 How bout you do it right and do 12hr instead of 24 hour since this is not a 24 hour event. There was no qpf in the previous 12 hrs, so what is the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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