Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sticking with my 1-3" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just looking at guidance, been away most of day People asked about Bufkit numbers from 18z For KBOS 18zNAM 1.2" / 0.14 qpf, all between 7z-12z (12z had like 0.1") 18zGFS 4.7" / 0.40 qpf, all between 6z-15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL, nobody in their right mind would say Boston has no more snow chances with three weeks left in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just looking at guidance, been away most of day People asked about Bufkit numbers from 18z For KBOS 18zNAM 1.2" / 0.14 qpf, all between 7z-12z (12z had like 0.1") 18zGFS 4.7" / 0.40 qpf, all between 6z-15z Not sure I'm feeling this. Been sick all day and feel naso great now. Time to go up and use the grogger when I hear a certain name....maybe that will bring her north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet. A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border. I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH. I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just looking at guidance, been away most of day People asked about Bufkit numbers from 18z For KBOS 18zNAM 1.2" / 0.14 qpf, all between 7z-12z (12z had like 0.1") 18zGFS 4.7" / 0.40 qpf, all between 6z-15z Can you do BDR please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Can you do BDR please? For KBDR 18z NAM 2.7" / 0.47 qpf (rain 0z-8z, snow 9z-15z) 18z GFS 4.0" / 1.07 qpf (rain 21z-9z, snow 12z-0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GYX at 101.2" after last night. Bottles of wine flow like water up here. But maybe tonight I celebrate with Maine Beer Company's Lunch. We're on the outside looking in for this one. All I could muster was some lousy slight chance PoP for ASH. Can u send 5" over to Tenney hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not sure I'm feeling this. Been sick all day and feel naso great now. Time to go up and use the grogger when I hear a certain name....maybe that will bring her north. Yeah I'm not sure. Negative column: • NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing • Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston • Radar right now not the most exciting • Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling Positive column: • 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston • 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston • 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston Good reasons to argue either way. Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance. (and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Down to 34 degrees here. Now the question becomes will the precip make this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's right, Eduggs was very very bullish with the storm along with Kevin. Kudos maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure. Negative column: • NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing • Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston • Radar right now not the most exciting • Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling Positive column: • 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston • 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston • 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston Good reasons to argue either way. Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance. (and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!) You as well get better! Been a burn at both ends winter and we pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looking at the WV imagery, where is the wave of interest currently located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looking at the WV imagery, where is the wave of interest currently located?Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Radar right on cue when models had it springing to life over PA and ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's right, Eduggs was very very bullish with the storm along with Kevin. Kudos maybe. In all fairness...when isn't Kevin bullish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ohio Valley Thanks - what is your temp on top of the hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wow. I haven't seen Box updates since this morning. Looks like this thing is a gonner for the most part. Winter storm watches gone poof! except for warnings on the islands. Boston left hanging with a 2nd place historical winter. Maybe an inch or so here to refresh the grime, and then on to Spring. Quite honestly, after today's news I'm pretty much changing out of winter mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet. A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border. I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH. I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online. Down to 35.9/28 Cooling pretty quickly...what ever I get should be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wow. I haven't seen Box updates since this morning. Looks like this thing is a gonner for the most part. Winter storm watches gone poof! except for warnings on the islands. Maybe an inch or so here to refresh the grime, and then on to Spring. Quite honestly, after today's news I'm pretty much changing out of winter mode. Take a look at the 18z GFS/RGEM and you might change your tune re the first part of your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Thanks - what is your temp on top of the hill?35.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Where's the front currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO the slow temp drop argues that the farther north solutions have more merit. If the cold air was already in and established that would tend to eat the precip on northern periphery. I think the temps not cooling as quickly as forecast is a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The GEFS look suspiciously north and wet. A few members spread plowable snow all the way to NW MA with heavy snow south of the CT/MA border. I think these might already be too far north in IN and OH. I wonder if and how they were updated when the new GFS came online.We have seen the trends and a good 4-6 at the Pike is very likely. But the pike is a long stretch. We talkin about western mass or near boston. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 IMO the slow temp drop argues that the farther north solutions have more merit. If the cold air was already in and established that would tend to eat the precip on northern periphery. I think the temps not cooling as quickly as forecast is a good thing Seems like maybe the slow temp drop lends some truth to BOX's opinion that there would be some qpf wasted as rain/sleet...especially near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I dunno, whatever...it will rain, it will snow. I'm gonna hug my wife tonight a little more cuz you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure. Negative column: • NWS Box really conservative and went even more meh... they have had a great season, they must be seeing something though the AFD rationale was kind of confusing • Euro still kind of meh, maybe 2" in Boston • Radar right now not the most exciting • Logan 40/29F... we don't want to waste qpf on cooling Positive column: • 18z RGEM trended significantly better, maybe 3-4" in Boston • 18z NAM/GFS trended significantly better, GFS ~4" in Boston • 12z UK significantly better, maybe 2" in Boston Good reasons to argue either way. Bottom line, we watch radar trends and 0z guidance. (and been sick as well x 3 days, hope you feel better!) nice summary One point to add (In negative) is surface NNW winds and I think Ryan mentioned some dry air in the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Seems like maybe the slow temp drop lends some truth to BOX's opinion that there would be some qpf wasted as rain/sleet...especially near the coast. Good...I'll gladly battle that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Any chance snow up here for SNH? Only got an inch last night? Is it coming this far north? Didn't think we had a shot at this thing. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Radar now looks somewhat encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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