Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hey kids, hey kids, it gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the inclination is to look at new each model run, especially in this time frame, as zeroing in on what will be the eventual solution, especially when there is unanimity among the model regime. Dont the odds of reversing field decrease as we approach game time? Not always, of course, but if we cant figure on the model depictions as becoming increasingly more likely as we approach game time, then how on earth can we even use them 24 hrs or more ahead of time... ? Models can and have trended away from what we thought was the "real" solution all the time. We've seen it several times this winter in fact. Our red flags still exist, so despite the nudges north we could still end up with 2SM -SN all day that amounts to 1 or 1.5 inches. And to be clear, I'm specifically talking about the southern CT counties in Upton's coverage area. They just don't have the confidence beyond the coastal zone splits. I don't know what else to tell you besides that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z GFS I mean, even if it ticks south at 0z, that would still be a solid advisory snowfall for most in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They just don't have the confidence beyond the coastal zone splits. I don't know what else to tell you besides that. It's all good, I'm not mad lol. Just typing away. Your points obv make a lot of sense. We will see what 0z brings Then I'll watch the CT map grid tomorrow morning and see all the reds and accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I mean, even if it ticks south at 0z, that would still be a solid advisory snowfall for most in CT. That is a clown map. (not sure when we stopped calling them that and started using them as if they were useful) The GFS QPF does support advisory snow there (MAYBE even low end warning), but it is one model run and there's still the caveat that the synoptics don't support the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record... This is almost firepower that we will break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a clown map. (not sure when we stopped calling them that and started using them as if they were useful) The GFS QPF does support advisory snow there (MAYBE even low end warning), but it is one model run and there's still the caveat that the synoptics don't support the QPF output. when do we feel better down here then, after 0z holds serve? if it does that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Classic Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As expected bufkit vastly improved with 18Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 when do we feel better down here then, after 0z holds serve? if it does that is. I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions. You certainly are in a better spot than further north there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As expected bufkit vastly improved with 18Z runs Details? Locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Details? Locations? heading out towards home, catch up with you later, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just gonna pray we get 2" and be thrilled with anything extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions. You certainly are in a better spot than further north there. What is your impression of how radar and vapor look at this very early juncture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd want to see the NAM come north again, and the shorter terms start picking up on it as they get into range, plus have water vapor/radar support the more robust solutions. You certainly are in a better spot than further north there. So how does the WV and radar look so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What is your impression of how radar and vapor look at this very early juncture? Not overly impressed yet...but things should start looking a bit more obvious by 8-9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record... Welp, I'm popping the champagne in that case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So how does the WV and radar look so far? Large area of 40-50 dbz echoes over northern KY moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Radar has a lot of work to do IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Large area of 40-50 dbz echoes over northern KY moving NE. I bet a lot of that is bright banding near the mix boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6-8 Danbury to Mt. Tolland. I'm going with the rgem and gfs bedfellas. I don't know what the hell NYC or Boston will get what with mix, ratios, and storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dang, Pete Bouchard is pretty adamant that Boston will not be breaking the snowfall record... You mean, 'at all' or because of this deal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 yup alot of the ggeneral public will be mad in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Southeast ridge will not be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GFS and the GEFs match up with my call from a few days ago really well. Both snowfall axis and magnitude. But I'm not too impressed with the radar right now. It's really difficult to project, but to me the trajectory looks a lot better for, say, the southern Poconos than for central portions of SNE. I think lighter echoes will blossom northward overnight, but it's the heavy stuff that I'm interested in. I'd be inclined to hedge just south of the 18z guidance, although I don't want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances 2nd part is bold given the possibilities for another 4-5 weeks but maybe he'll be correct. Tonight is close but as Will said it could be almost nothing or several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every on air segment he had from 4-530pm, he was adamant this next system wasn't going to break the record...said 95-96 would stay at #1, and said from here on out it doesn't look like there are any other chances The sad part is if we do break it down the road, most people won't remember what he said tonight, so he gets a free pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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