NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think the max map is updated, while the forecast is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What in GOD's name is the NWS doing? My PNC says about 0.5", and it's a massive 1-2, when now All models are going way North agreeing on about 3"-5" for me. There's Proof in their insanity, because their maximum map is so much larger than what they are forecasting. Not even an Advisory???? Kevin - Nice Prediction. Warning to the Pike = Not ECEN a Hazardous Weather Outlook to the Pike. image.jpg It's a probablistic tool. That is the max amount that they deem fathomable at a given location considering the current pantheon of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM.I tried responding and it wouldn't let me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM. That's a dangerous combo to ride. hope they're clenching their cheeks really tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I tried responding and it wouldn't let me lol They have to follow you to be able to respond, I tried as well. Guess they sent that to everyone who called them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I am now fully convinced this is 6+ to the pike Kevin, you must have been a cheerleader in a past life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM. Personally, I'd ride the Euro but who am I but a lowly man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Kevin, you must have been a cheerleader in a past life! Glad I didn't know him in that life...imagine those emaciated limbs in a skirt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Personally, I'd ride the Euro but who am I but a lowly man We knows nothing! ... SREF's tho? Honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 hit a high of 45F. torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We knows nothing! ... SREF's tho? Honestly. Not as robust as Euro. Let's just say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not as robust as Euro. Let's just say that. I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice? I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then... As they say in my homelands: da fuq? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What in GOD's name is the NWS doing? My PNC says about 0.5", and it's a massive 1-2, when now All models are going way North agreeing on about 3"-5" for me. There's Proof in their insanity, because their maximum map is so much larger than what they are forecasting. Not even an Advisory???? Kevin - Nice Prediction. Warning to the Pike = Not ECEN a Hazardous Weather Outlook to the Pike. image.jpg And your min map gives you 0. That max map will fail to occur 9 out of 10 times. In reality, a warning should be issued about every time that min map shows 5-6 inches. That would be 90% confidence of occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice? I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then... As they say in my homelands: da fuq? Yes, it's N, no too far off from the Euro, maybe a touch drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 36.7 . Should start as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 36.7 . Should start as snow 850s are still warm per SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As expected based on their forecast, WWA on the S coast and that's it. All of these last few events have been a rollercoaster ride, ultimately ending in mediocrity. There have been quite a few though, hence the 4 foot tall piles a stones throw from the ocean here. I think this is where the south coast gets off the winter ride. Would like enough to cross country ski on the roads, looking very doubtful. Hopefully they bust low and don't adequately plough, but they've been pretty much dead on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 36.7 . Should start as snow I would say you're right on the edge. Wet bulb 0s around 950 are hanging out in your neighborhood. Any farther south doesn't look all that awesome as things currently stand, until after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OT but 43 day stretch of BOS failing to hit 40 ends today, longest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OT but 43 day stretch of BOS failing to hit 40 ends today, longest on record. And 95/96 on top ends tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I know but... that plus 12z NAM as guidance of choice? I guess it's good the 18z NAM came north a bit then... As they say in my homelands: da fuq? I'm with you...da fuq? Sometimes, modelology is important as well. Like, knowing that going with a NAM/SREF combo when they are on their own compared to all other global guidance is a pretty safe bet to lose every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM. Can you post their message verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm with you...da fuq? Sometimes, modelology is important as well. Like, knowing that going with a NAM/SREF combo when they are on their own compared to all other global guidance is a pretty safe bet to lose every single time. Ah but that is exactly what indicates we're not meteorologists. The NWS surely has some reason or rationale for preferring the camp they do... at least they usually do. I ain't know. Da fuq, I says! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Upton with nothing for us, not even a WWA. CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-051000-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ORANGE-PUTNAM-403 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ANDSOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEETNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would say you're right on the edge. Wet bulb 0s around 950 are hanging out in your neighborhood. Any farther south doesn't look all that awesome as things currently stand, until after 00z. Dew is 30..Little bit of room to wet bulb..and thinking elevation will help too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Upton with nothing for us, not even a WWA.I wouldn't worry, there coverage of zones make no sense sometimes. for instance, Peekskill, NY is under a WWA but I'm not? It's a joke. Their coloring looks like a Pre school project. Wilton, ct is nothing but you go west over the border into pound ridge, NY and you have a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can you post their message verbatim Our tweet to them: SCW @SouthernCTWX 2h 2 hours ago @NWSBoston Riding the NAM on new map? Only guidance that really supports only 1-2" that far south. Their response: New 15z SREF snow probs support the 12z NAM & ARW. 70% of 4" Islands decreasing to 45% at PVD. Vry progressive & ptype issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow RGEM FTW. We pray. 3-4 for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WOW RGEM! Way north of the 12z run. 3-5" right up to BOS-ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wouldn't worry, there coverage of zones make no sense sometimes. for instance, Peekskill, NY is under a WWA but I'm not? It's a joke. Their coloring looks like a Pre school project. Wilton, ct is nothing but you go west over the border into pound ridge, NY and you have a WWA. It just seems strange considering a Watch was issued yesterday and considering the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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