NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 New BOX map, quite frankly, this makes no sense considering the trends we saw re. the first wave at on the 12z guidance. This map is essentially throwing out all other guidance but the NAM, which is a dangerous dangerous dangerous proposition. I also think they've got way too wide a 1-2 area, the northern cutoff of it is decent but all guidance suggests a relatively sharp rampup from nothing to 2-4". I'd take 1-2" in a heart beat haha. Still not expecting much more than a coating that will be vaporized by solar radiation through the clouds Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The strangest thing on that map for me is the fact that the islands are out of the higher bands. They don't just think that its a steep gradient, and that we're mostly on the outside of it, they seem to think that either rain and wet snow keeps accumulation down, offsetting more qpf or this just isn't as strong, broadly, as modeled, once its here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The strangest thing on that map for me is the fact that the islands are out of the higher bands. They don't just think that its a steep gradient, and that we're mostly on the outside of it, they seem to think that either rain and wet snow keeps accumulation down, offsetting more qpf or this just isn't as strong, broadly, as modeled, once its here. From reading their tweets, they're thinking the bolded. Not sure I agree with them though. In their probabilistic graphics, they give BOS a ~40% chance of breaking the record(39% of 2", we need 1.9"), which I think is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That map is going to give Kevin a heart attack. Looks fine for my area. An inch or two, at most, should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like the map...probably close to what will verify across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That map is going to give Kevin a heart attack. It's almost like they gave you control of map making this afternoon..and you had just finished off a 2 liter of Purple Passion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like the map...probably close to what will verify across the region. I don't give a **** about the map. I'm just a little dumbfounded by the wording in the AFD. To say 12z models moved S is inaccurate if you ask me but whatever. Sticking by my 1-3" here even though I think just about every 12z model gave me more except the NAM/SREFs. It's all gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't give a **** about the map. I'm just a little dumbfounded by the wording in the AFD. To say 12z models moved S is inaccurate if you ask me but whatever. Sticking by my 1-3" here even though I think just about every 12z model gave me more except the NAM/SREFs. It's all gravy. Agreed on both accounts. I agree with their map, but not their interpretation of trends in guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Holding on to that 2" dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That map is going to give Kevin a heart attack. Warnings to the Pike, BOX hoists at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Warnings to the Pike, BOX hoists at 4pm. Good luck on your 1-2 inch call in CT. Best wishes to you and yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good luck on your 1-2 inch call in CT. Best wishes to you and yours Where did he say was making a 1-2" call in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Overnight wave being stronger means f//u wave is less so. Iow....if we don't have the record by the time we wake up tomorrow (or it's obviously producing well) we're not getting it till later if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Where did he say was making a 1-2" call in CT? I never said that, that's putting words in my mouth. I was just confident that BOX would not issue warnings to the pike. I hope you get your 6" kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Overnight wave being stronger means f//u wave is less so. Iow....if we don't have the record by the time we wake up tomorrow (or it's obviously producing well) we're not getting it till later if it happens. What's BOS at now? 105.7" 1.9" to tie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z NAM quite a bit north with round 1 through 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z NAM quite a bit north with round 1 through 15 hours. North north, or south north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 50 mile jump north on nam close in. Pos model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd be deeply worried if they spent a lot of time reading this thread for forecast guidance. I think some fantasize that they do read these threads for guidance. It seems like they are playing the mix precip possibility in their map. I just hope Boston gets their record because it will be a crawl to the finish if they don't. (Tippy laughing in the background.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Basically a GFS/GGEM/Euro blend, tossed UKMET/RGEM as wet outliers and NAM as the dry one. I'm more worried that this busts low than high however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think some fantasize that they do read these threads for guidance. It seems like they are playing the mix precip possibility in their map. I just hope Boston gets their record because it will be a crawl to the finish if they don't. (Tippy laughing in the background.) Boston has the record. No way a winter of this ilk delivers that little throughout the entirety of March...even the truncated seasons provided something in March. Worst case is you sweat it out for 3 weeks or so, but even then, the EPO reloads for one last dance with fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Boston has the record. No way a winter of this ilk delivers that little throughout the entirety of March...even the truncated seasons provided something in March. Worst case is you sweat it out for 3 weeks or so, but even then, the EPO reloads for one last dance with fate. Yeah that's the way I feel. Like 2011...truncated winter...but BOS had 1.6" on Mar 31-Apr 1 that year. I'd give BOS a 50/50 shot right now of breaking it in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I am now fully convinced this is 6+ to the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I am now fully convinced this is 6+ to the pike I'm fully convinced your snow goggles are strapped too tightly around your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm fully convinced your snow goggles are strapped too tightly around your head.Ive stated my reasons. You are good for 8 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 What in GOD's name is the NWS doing? My PNC says about 0.5", and it's a massive 1-2, when now All models are going way North agreeing on about 3"-5" for me. There's Proof in their insanity, because their maximum map is so much larger than what they are forecasting. Not even an Advisory???? Kevin - Nice Prediction. Warning to the Pike = Not ECEN a Hazardous Weather Outlook to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ive stated my reasons. You are good for 8 there I know you have stated your reasons but to come out after a nam run to say it, is funny. You're a funny one... So I have to tease Back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I am now fully convinced this is 6+ to the pike Well I am now fully convinced you sleep in bun zzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per a DM from BOX to us on Twitter when we called out their map, they are basically riding the 12z NAM/15z SREFS verbatim for their forecast. Oops considering the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL, well the NAM gave it all to start, took it all away, and now brings it back again. Huge bust potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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