ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings. And even if models did shift another 25 mi north, I'm not sure I'd want to issue warnings anyway....too nervous about that NNW flow at the surface acting to dry out the lower levels. 0.50" of QPF and NNW sfc flow isn't exactly screaming warning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 And even if models did shift another 25 mi north, I'm not sure I'd want to issue warnings anyway....too nervous about that NNW flow at the surface acting to dry out the lower levels. 0.50" of QPF and NNW sfc flow isn't exactly screaming warning.... This whole event is one giant red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 And even if models did shift another 25 mi north, I'm not sure I'd want to issue warnings anyway....too nervous about that NNW flow at the surface acting to dry out the lower levels. 0.50" of QPF and NNW sfc flow isn't exactly screaming warning.... Ratios! Sun angle! Fridusia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ratios! Sun angle! Fridusia! The Ghost of Grady Sizemore! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No met pig pile, Kev...just stating the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Its all about the record in BOS for me. Lets hope the observer doesn't call in sick tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings. Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was. And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Agree. My only concern is this is rush hour tomorrow along the south coast. While that doesn't factor in to meeting warning criteria, I think advisories are generally brushed aside by the public. 95 and Merritt in CT will be a complete cluster screwjob tomorrow morning. Fun times ahead. Merritt is always a fun ride in the snow. 95 is generally warmer with more cars, more plows, closer to the water, its usually not as bad. But the Merritt in the hilly terrain pfffft it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was. And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time. If the model agreement is really strong and the synoptics are favorable, that's when you normally see watches at 60-72 hours out...makes sense because that is one of the few situations you can be as high as 50/50 that warning snows will fall that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Ghost of Grady Sizemore! ! Slightly off topic, but I did get to touch him last spring. Well, technically he touched me. In fact, that may be what made the magic of this winter possible. Think about it. Think about that blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Day Kevin will post a negative snow post is the day snow melts instantly at 32* lol. Am I weird for being more excited about the fact that this will be Measurable Snow Event #17 in 41 Days than almost any other amazing stat I'm breaking? 17 in 41 is freaking Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Day Kevin will post a negative snow post is the day snow melts instantly at 32* lol. Am I weird for being more excited about the fact that this will be Measurable Snow Event #17 in 41 Days than almost any other amazing stat I'm breaking? 17 in 41 is freaking Insanity. You ought to get this post aired on NECN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Huh? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1235 PM UPDATE...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ALONG S COAST THROUGH LATEAFTERNOON...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY SAGGING S THROUGHREGION. SOME BREAKS OR THINNING IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWEDTEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO 30S AND LOWER 40S AS OF MIDDAY...ANDREADINGS MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.EARLY THOUGHTS FOR NEXT UPDATE...12Z MODELS HAVE NUDGED THINGS A BIT FARTHER S FROM EARLIER RUNS...ESPECIALLY HIGH-RES MODELS WHICH SHOW SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHERNEDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS TO BE TAKEN INTOCONSIDERATION. INITIAL PLAN IS TO CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL TOTALSALONG AND N OF MASS PIKE...AND NUDGE AMOUNTS DOWN A TAD FARTHER TOS. WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION ON TOTALS/HEADLINES AFTERCOORDINATION WITH WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.THERE ARE SEVERAL RED FLAGS TO CONSIDER AGAINST GOING WITH OVERLYHIGH AMOUNTS INCLUDING BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME INITIALLY WARM LOWLEVEL TEMPERATURES /WHICH AFFECTS PRECIP TYPE ANDACCUMULATIONS/...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD NUDGE ON MODELS AND FACTTHAT BEST LIFT IN MAX SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LIMITED TO LATE TONIGHTAND EARLY THU MORNING NEAR S COAST. FACT THAT HIGH-RES MODELS SHOWLITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL N OF MASS PIKE MAKES SENSE GIVEN WE EXPECTA SHARP GRADIENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Bizarro world update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NWS is always behind the latest trends. It's as though they run 12 hours behind in their receipt of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Huh? I can't make sense of that, either. Perhaps I am not looking at the same things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What is box looking at? Most of the 12z suite was north...No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's almost like they looked at yesterday's 12z models instead of today. I mean that AFD couldn't be farther from the truth if they tried. #drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What is box looking at? Most of the 12z suite was north...No? Eh, north with the stuff tonight and south with the stuff tomorrow...I kind of found the trends to be a wash...but not sure I'd say the whole thing shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From their twitter they seem to be leaning towards a lot of qpf being lost to rain/sleet keeping totals down as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's almost like they looked at yesterday's 12z models instead of today. I mean that AFD couldn't be farther from the truth if they tried. #drunk Agreed. lol HPC is the worst for being behind RE latest trends. Every goverment entity moves slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems to be decent agreement it snows into the mid morning tomorriw. The question seems if it continues all day or is it squashed south in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just to be clear, its 80% for a warning, 50% for a watch, and 25% for an outlook? That's what I always believed it was. And the lead time for a watch, I've seen anything from 24-48 hours, to up to 54 hours, to 72 hours (according to NWS binghampton) They say watches can go up 24-72 hours lead time. 80/50/30% And a watch can be valid anywhere between 12 hour and 96 hours. We aren't required to forecast QPF/snowfall/ice beyond 72 hours so it would be hard to issue a watch if you don't know the potential snow/ice, but like Will said if confidence is high it can be done. Inside 12 hours it's sh!t or get off the pot time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the new box storm total map, it was bullish to think that even the immediate coast would get a warning. They know what they're doing, and I'm more inclined to think they are right, than my ignorant weenie optimism, but the explanation in the discussion would have made more sense last night, so its a bit confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From their twitter they seem to be leaning towards a lot of qpf being lost to rain/sleet keeping totals down as a result. I wouldn't be confident in this. I'd be more worried about the heavier precip bands missing us farther to the south than I would that it won't get cold enough to snow. This next batch of cold air means business for the end of the week, and it wouldn't surprise me that it gets here a little quicker then expected once the front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 New BOX map, quite frankly, this makes no sense considering the trends we saw re. the first wave at on the 12z guidance. This map is essentially throwing out all other guidance but the NAM, which is a dangerous dangerous dangerous proposition. I also think they've got way too wide a 1-2 area, the northern cutoff of it is decent but all guidance suggests a relatively sharp rampup from nothing to 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not sure what's going on there today , but if they are reading this thread.. Then hopefully they realize what's going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not sure what's going on there today , but if they are reading this thread.. Then hopefully they realize what's going on I'd be deeply worried if they spent a lot of time reading this thread for forecast guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the new box storm total map, it was bullish to think that even the immediate coast would get a warning. They know what they're doing, and I'm more inclined to think they are right, than my ignorant weenie optimism, but the explanation in the discussion would have made more sense last night, so its a bit confusing. That map is going to give Kevin a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 New BOX map, quite frankly, this makes no sense considering the trends we saw re. the first wave at on the 12z guidance. This map is essentially throwing out all other guidance but the NAM, which is a dangerous dangerous dangerous proposition. I also think they've got way too wide a 1-2 area, the northern cutoff of it is decent but all guidance suggests a relatively sharp rampup from nothing to 2-4". The 3-4" and 4-6" ranges will probably end up a little farther north then what this map is showing, but we're only looking at 25-30 miles of movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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