The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 lol, there won't be warnings to the pike. I'm betting those watches currently in place go over to advisories for 3-6 (that's what they have forecasted now) 3-6 is not even warning criteria but im guessing they are just waiting to see if there is a shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro says 5" ish, UKMET probably does it verbatim but I'd want to see one more bump north at 18z to feel comfortable pulling the trigger. Reasoning? .50+ to the border..factor in another bumper two north as models sense they were too strong with confluence..and it gets fluffier as time goes on so ratios go up. 6+ seems likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, Will. That and decent lift above 700 where it's colder could be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I still don't expect much. 1-3" is the upside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, Will. That and decent lift above 700 where it's colder could be nice. I wouldn't be surprised to see it chase back se a bit near go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I still don't expect much. 1-3" is the upside here. C-1" for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What a complex set up, still not sure the handling of these multiple waves is finalized. To be clear: 1st wave: 6z-12z Thurs, roughly Thurs AM 2nd/3rd wave: 18z Thurs, roughly Thurs afternoon-evening Yesterday I thought the 2nd/3rd wave could have better potential for our region as it had best potential for interaction with northern stream energy. But now models seem to be emphasizing wave 1 and squashing waves 2/3, and this may be because baroclinic zone is even further southeast by the time waves 2/3 arrive. All in all, GFS is not that far behind, just a tick north on wave 1 and it has pretty similar impact on our region as Euro. It similarly emphasizes wave 1 and squashes waves 2/3. It squashes waves 2/3 even more than Euro, but the impact there is more significant for NYC-Philly than for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 .50+ to the border..factor in another bumper two north as models sense they were too strong with confluence..and it gets fluffier as time goes on so ratios go up. 6+ seems likely IMO Why would you factor in something that hasn't happened yet. It's like forecasting based on a forecast. I think its more likely that southern regions get a warning. And the rest will be advisories. Box has been great at not over steering as the models veer this way and that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why would you factor in something that hasn't happened yet. It's like forecasting based on a forecast. I think its more likely that southern regions get a warning. And the rest will be advisories. Box has been great at not over steering as the models veer this way and that. Just because I don't believe it's done moving north. I could be totally wrong.. But models love to overestimate confluence in the days leading up to storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just because I don't believe it's done moving north. I could be totally wrong.. But models love to overestimate confluence in the days leading up to storms Is that why we've seen so many storms trend SE at the last minute this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Man...should've gone more aggressive with my call last night. Was thinking 2-4 right along the shoreline, with a coating to 2" for the majority of the state. Looks like it's another 3-6" statewide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just because I don't believe it's done moving north. I could be totally wrong.. But models love to overestimate confluence in the days leading up to storms Last March begs to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Is that why we've seen so many storms trend SE at the last minute this winter?Overamplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The watch/warning/advisory conjecture is fun. Especially when I already have a good idea what the true outcome will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Last March begs to differ. With a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Damn you guys are fast. I was all ready to jump on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Overamplification Ok, so we'll assume the models aren't over-amplifying this and only the confluence is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 With a -NAO That was March 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 With a -NAO No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Met naked pigpile. I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The watch/warning/advisory conjecture is fun. Especially when I already have a good idea what the true outcome will be. Hahaha. Well, I hope I'm wrong, BOX have been really good this year, and I'd love for a bigger event for everyone (and myself of course). That said, I don't think I've ever been able to cross country ski on headlines alone. I get more than 6" from this and I'm going to cross country ski around ocean drive. Should take me a few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Over doing confluence ? I really have not heard anyone mention that as a model bias. Sounds weenie'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've never drooled so hard over less than 5" in my entire career. But, here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not like we have a couple more days for this to trend north, it's pretty much go time...it is what it is, wishful thinking aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've never drooled so hard over less than 5" in my entire career. But, here we are. When winter is young it's all filet steak, but as the days go by, you have to move on to the cheap cuts, to paraphrase M. Gustave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've never drooled so hard over less than 5" in my entire career. But, here we are. Been doing that all winter. While fun like a roller coaster, it's not an experience I want to relive again next winter. Good luck on breaking the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not like we have a couple more days for this to trend north, it's pretty much go time...it is what it is, wishful thinking aside. You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI Me personally here: I wouldn't have 80% confidence if I'm banking on a 25 mile shift north to verify warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 When winter is young it's all filet steak, but as the days go by, you have to move on to the cheap cuts, to paraphrase M. Gustave. What a banner reference! I don't necessarily subscribe to that particular angle, however; all snow is good snow and my snow is best snow. Rather, the degree of excitement and/or anxiety I'm experiencing over possible snowfall right now is usually reserved for situations with considerably more accumulation upside. It's all about the record, though. I would readily sell most of you to Satan this evening just to move the needle ever so slightly into the "more than enough" category. But, alas. He wasn't interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You could conceivably inch this another 25-30 miles north at this lead time...but you certainly wouldn't count on it as part of your reasoning for issuing warnings up to the pike or even N CT/N RI Agree. My only concern is this is rush hour tomorrow along the south coast. While that doesn't factor in to meeting warning criteria, I think advisories are generally brushed aside by the public. 95 and Merritt in CT will be a complete cluster screwjob tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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