weathafella Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Would be funny, if this is just wet flakes falling and not accumulating. I asked about BL temps before but if this is light , we may have trouble in BOS until 430 or so to stack some light snow and chip away at record We're not accumulating if it snows until dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We're not accumulating if it snows until dark. Plenty cold tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm busy looking at other stuff, but the pike might be the dividing line between flurries and an inch or two. If I had to, maybe blend 6z GFS and euro/rgem..but the flags are out. 6z GFS makes sense to me, but am aware it did tick north. I suppose Euro and RGEM have to be taken into consideration given how reliable they can be....but like I said...I think I may take those with heavy heavy caution flags. You think it starts as snow tonight or do we start as ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You think it starts as snow tonight or do we start as ice? I haven't looked at soundings, but my guess is snow. Maybe a pellet or two wouldn't shock me. I miss the days of lows going underneath us and easy calls. Annoying turn of events lately...sounds weenie I know..but PITA storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM and GFS look to be at least and I mean at least an hour too slow with the progression of the southern stream s/w. And also a bit too far south with it too. Don't know how this will feedback into them once they realize where this thing is located as it gets into better data assimilation sites. WV - 11z 6z GFS 6hr prog for 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 since I just posted it. I forgot the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just to clarify my position on this potential. I'm onboard for 1-3" for TAN. If I get more as some models indicate, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just don't buy RGEM and Euro 100%. However even a compromise is kind of paltry. I buy it. Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Cold front has gone thru the Berks . West winds. Trickle that thing thru quickly this morning. 32.4 here currently with fog and ice under foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I buy it. Flurries here. Well I mean the overall solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I forgot the image. getimg.jpg continues the SW amp up as it moves up in time, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Cold front has gone thru the Berks . West winds. Trickle that thing thru quickly this morning. 32.4 here currently with fog and ice under foot The colder air is well west though. Torch aloft still. It will warm some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 continues the SW amp up as it moves up in time, interesting this has been a theme, great news for our MA NJ peeps but cool to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the Hires RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...THOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH RES MODELS /HRRR...WRF AND RAP13/ AND AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE 00Z GFS A BIT FURTHER N THAN THE OTHER MODELS. USED A NON-GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST. QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR N WILL THE MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL GO. MODELS STILL SIGNALING A SHARP NORTH CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP AS IT MOVES E-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. KEPT CAT POPS GOING ACROSS S RI/S COASTAL MA AND THE ISLANDS...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS N CT/MOST OF RI INTO SE MA. DID KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TO AROUND THE MASS PIKE THEN SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP N OF THERE. GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP MOVES E ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LOOKS LIKE TIMING IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO EXPECT TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...WILL LIKELY SEE DYNAMIC COOLING LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT TOTAL QPF TONIGHT AND THU TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES CLOSE TO THE MASS PIKE UP TO 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN...WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE BEST SHOT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL FROM THIS PASSING SYSTEM...SO WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS. KEPT A WATCH GOING ALONG THE S COAST FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THEY WILL ALSO SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW BUT STILL ON THE FENCE ON THIS...MAY ALSO BE JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. EXPECT STEADY PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THU... THOUGH WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THU AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRES WAVE MOVES BY AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. PRECIP SHOULD START TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE...THOUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS E RI/SE MA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I haven't looked at soundings, but my guess is snow. Maybe a pellet or two wouldn't shock me. I miss the days of lows going underneath us and easy calls. Annoying turn of events lately...sounds weenie I know..but PITA storms. Well from a forecast perspective it's not a weenie comment. Introducing two more precip types definitely complicates things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sleeting here now. Didn't expect that 32.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I mean the overall solution. I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I need .3 tonight for 100 on the season. Hopefully it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 this has been a theme, great news for our MA NJ peeps but cool to watch Wow, 1'+ near DC/Baltimore. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I need .3 tonight for 100 on the season. Hopefully it happens You've got that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I understand a bit of frustration pike north, but the snowfall distribution is starting to become more uniform....which quite frankly is incredible. Yes, I know the areas near the CT river are trailing, but you got areas near the south coast near 85". Take a step back for a second....that's pretty nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I understand a bit of frustration pike north, but the snowfall distribution is starting to become more uniform....which quite frankly is incredible. Yes, I know the areas near the CT river are trailing, but you got areas near the south coast near 85". Take a step back for a second....that's pretty nuts. I agree. Even the mid atl is now knocking on epic's door. I just did a drive by down there to give up props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What a sh*tshow down south. Flood Watches and winter storm warnings. Steve would have an orgy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I understand a bit of frustration pike north, but the snowfall distribution is starting to become more uniform....which quite frankly is incredible. Yes, I know the areas near the CT river are trailing, but you got areas near the south coast near 85". Take a step back for a second....that's pretty nuts. All in half a winter, sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think Dc area is going see quite a bit of that fall as sleet tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I understand a bit of frustration pike north, but the snowfall distribution is starting to become more uniform....which quite frankly is incredible. Yes, I know the areas near the CT river are trailing, but you got areas near the south coast near 85". Take a step back for a second....that's pretty nuts. When looking at climate sites that record snowfall, CAR, GYX, BTV, ALY, BOX, and OKX are all above normal snowfall for the season. Can't really infer the others based on precipitation for the season, because if you look at ALB they are 0.57" below normal precip but 24" above normal snowfall for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 When looking at climate sites that record snowfall, CAR, GYX, BTV, ALY, BOX, and OKX are all above normal snowfall for the season. Can't really infer the others based on precipitation for the season, because if you look at ALB they are 0.57" below normal precip but 24" above normal snowfall for the season. I assume my co-worker's measurements are accurate, but even in Bristol RI..I believe he has 65" give or take..and that's after getting screwed badly in a couple of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 When looking at climate sites that record snowfall, CAR, GYX, BTV, ALY, BOX, and OKX are all above normal snowfall for the season. Can't really infer the others based on precipitation for the season, because if you look at ALB they are 0.57" below normal precip but 24" above normal snowfall for the season. Testament to the extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM is a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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