ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM really pulls the southern energy around fast, so it makes a late recovery despite the early suppression, it actually ends up just a shade better than 12z. So that was a nice turn after the early frames. But the trend of the more overbearing northern stream is still worrisome to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM really pulls the southern energy around fast, so it makes a late recovery despite the early suppression, it actually ends up just a shade better than 12z. So that was a nice turn after the early frames. But the trend of the more overbearing northern stream is still worrisome to me. Well that is somewhat encouraging that it made some improvements from 12z. So we will see what the Ukie shows in a few minutes. It was very nice on its last run, hope it stays that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM really pulls the southern energy around fast, so it makes a late recovery despite the early suppression, it actually ends up just a shade better than 12z. So that was a nice turn after the early frames. But the trend of the more overbearing northern stream is still worrisome to me. Was skiing most of day, so not up to snuff on how all the 12z models were. Was Canadian warning S coast /Advisory Pike 'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When are the run times for the UKMET (on the earliest available site) wxbell doesn't update till like 3AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Was skiing most of day, so not up to snuff on how all the 12z models were. Was Canadian warning S coast /Advisory Pike 'ish Yeah that is about right...probably some BL issues for S coast though early on, so warning may be marginal...hard to say for sure. 00z didn't end up much different, maybe a little bit more pike region and the periphery to the north perhaps slightly more generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When are the run times for the UKMET (on the earliest available site) wxbell doesn't update till like 3AM.Meteocentre is out to 72 hours around 1140-1145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When are the run times for the UKMET (on the earliest available site) wxbell doesn't update till like 3AM. Ukie should be out soon...usually between about 1145-12. It used to come out much earlier on the plymouth state site but no longer. Too bad as that was pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie is definitely south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 South coast special on the Ukie. Pretty good consensus now between GFS/GGEM/Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 South of 12z, but still a pretty damned good hit. Probably warning snows past the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie should be out soon...usually between about 1145-12. It used to come out much earlier on the plymouth state site but no longer. Too bad as that was pretty nice. Did they stop maintaining that site? I used to use it daily, but it seems like many of the products have been broken for ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Did they stop maintaining that site? I used to use it daily, but it seems like many of the products have been broken for ages. I'm pretty sure UKMET changed the way they release their data, I know it's a reason it has been harder to find recently than it was like 5 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No change per gfs. Nice modest event. I think the GFS has the right idea. About the seventh 1-3" event since mid Feb. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z GEFS look very close to 18z and 12z... Nice to see holding serve with bigger hit than operational. Still think there is positive potential with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z GEFS look very close to 18z and 12z... Nice to see holding serve with bigger hit than operational. Still think there is positive potential with this. Yeah, the mean is actually a pretty big hit, with some really nice individual members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro looks very marginally better than 12z...but essentially model noise for a 60 hour prog. A bit better energy on the base of trough. Still basically an advisory event for most of SNE except far northern near the NH border. I'd say the 00z suite was pretty much stagnant from the 12z. Was hoping to see a noticable move toward more robust if we're going for a warning event, but we're running out of time having gone through one more cycle 60 hours out with little to no improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We don't toss Kentucky FTW This is including our thump tomorrow night though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro looks very marginally better than 12z...but essentially model noise for a 60 hour prog. A bit better energy on the base of trough. Still basically an advisory event for most of SNE except far northern near the NH border. I'd say the 00z suite was pretty much stagnant from the 12z. Was hoping to see a noticable move toward more robust if we're going for a warning event, but we're running out of time having gone through one more cycle 60 hours out with little to no improvement. Interestingly, 0z Euro looked better in MD / PA / NJ compared to 0z. Compare hours 48-60, the system is more juiced and ticked further NW. But those initially better changes hit a wall south of Long Island, and the QPF just shifts more east than northeast. Maybe stronger confluence this run? I wonder what models will be more prone to underestimate: confluence or the shortwave energy down south. Not much of a shift in that balance to get us the goldilocks solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anafrontal ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Funny how bullish ensembles are compared to the op...esp GFS vs GEFS. Will is right about the nrn stream confluence...the srn part is improving I think..but the nrn stream confluence is hurting us too. I do think this will have an impressive frontogenesis band on the nrn edge. Now where does this set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm only concerned with achieving a total of 3.7 to break the record at BOS. I'm thinking 2 tonight and hopefully the balance in the frontsy backsy event following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 1h 1 hour ago Euro ensembles are bullish for Thursday. 6+" for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 They are, but it doesn't mean they are right if a few weenie members skew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 They are, but it doesn't mean they are right if a few weenie members skew it. Is that the case?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Is that the case?? I can't see the members..maybe someone else can, but it's something to always keep in mind. We are also at the point where the baton is handed off to the op runs vs the ensembles. We'll see what 12z brings, but IMHO...I would keep things in perspective and not get too bullish. Unless, the 12z runs go nuts of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 They are, but it doesn't mean they are right if a few weenie members skew it. The truth is with 51 members the mean is more stable vs GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The truth is with 51 members the mean is more stable vs GEFS. Both are pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I can't see the members..maybe someone else can, but it's something to always keep in mind. We are also at the point where the baton is handed off to the op runs vs the ensembles. We'll see what 12z brings, but IMHO...I would keep things in perspective and not get too bullish. Unless, the 12z runs go nuts of course. Well yeah not getting too crazy yet..but I do feel fairly confident in 6 inches to the Pike. the potential is there for more though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well yeah not getting too crazy yet..but I do feel fairly confident in 6 inches at to the Pike. the potential is there for more though There should be an awesome band close to the NW edge of this. Just a matter of whether or not it gets to I-90 or ACK..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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