SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The verification scores of the Nam aren't as good as the other models. I like using the Nam for more concentrated events or even when it comes to the surface temperatures and layers aloft. I also think it does fairly well with thunderstorms in the summer given its resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 gefs 18z mean is great for the area….also a little bit better for nw areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When would watches go up for this, late tonight? This is one I'm pretty optimistic about (hold the presses!!). Lots of moisture running over top into a strong high and descending cold air, and favorable jet structure. There should be a swath of 8-12" in the best snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 JM1220 honking i like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 18z GFS LGA...6.3" OKX...11.4" ACY...14.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 When would watches go up for this, late tonight? This is one I'm pretty optimistic about (hold the presses!!). Lots of moisture running over top into a strong high and descending cold air, and favorable jet structure. There should be a swath of 8-12" in the best snow area. I would think watches would be issued tomorrow afternoon and warnings issued Wednesday afternoon to highlight accumulating snow from Wednesday night into at least the first half of Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 By the way it appears Upton liking the look of the models , currently 1-2 Tues. + some Ice. forcasting 2-4 Wed night and 3-5 Thurs. Ill settle for low end all days and bank 6 inches to get CPK to 40 inches for season and then Ill wait for a Birthday surprise : Snow on March 31st- has happened before!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Giddy up. Important 0Z runs tonight. I also hope shafted NW sections do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's he saying When would watches go up for this, late tonight? This is one I'm pretty optimistic about (hold the presses!!). Lots of moisture running over top into a strong high and descending cold air, and favorable jet structure. There should be a swath of 8-12" in the best snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I would think watches would be issued tomorrow afternoon and warnings issued Wednesday afternoon to highlight accumulating snow from Wednesday night into at least the first half of Thursday. I would think watches would be issued tomorrow afternoon and warnings issued Wednesday afternoon to highlight accumulating snow from Wednesday night into at least the first half of Thursday. Hope so. We have not jackpotted here for a long time and not at all this year. March storms have a way fizzling tho. Think they will hold off until late Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Today's JMA brings the .50" line all the way up to Albany...NYC and parts of LI are at 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAVGEM is really amped... Almost 1.6" LE for NYC!!! Lol wow... 1.0" line goes to Albany. Some of this is obviously from the first Storm but still a major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAVGEM is really amped... Almost 1.6" LE for NYC!!! Lol wow... 1.0" line goes to Albany. Some of this is obviously from the first Storm but still a major hit Are we looking at the same NAVGEM? I'm looking at it on TT and precip barely reaches ALB for the Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at the same NAVGEM? I'm looking at it on TT and precip barely reaches ALB for the Thursday event. It looks to me like a DC to NYC special.....6-10" my guess from the thursday snow with rain sandwiched between snow events (without seeing the paid snowfall maps, though). Precip really doesn't get too far north and even Boston doesn't come away with much on on the NAVGEM. Still lots of time to iron out this forecast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAVGEM is really amped... Almost 1.6" LE for NYC!!! Lol wow... 1.0" line goes to Albany. Some of this is obviously from the first Storm but still a major hit Mixing for.the.coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at the same NAVGEM? I'm looking at it on TT and precip barely reaches ALB for the Thursday event. It's definitely on the wetter side of guidance, but not quite to the extent that has been suggested, as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at the same NAVGEM? I'm looking at it on TT and precip barely reaches ALB for the Thursday event. I think he meant its wet more than amped...its not that far west with its precip, its just juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's definitely on the wetter side of guidance, but not quite to the extent that has been suggested, as far as I can tell. Yea it was a quick glance, Shouldnt have put the Albany part in, still over 1.5" for most both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea it was a quick glance, Shouldnt have put the Albany part in, still over 1.5" for most both storms If you take the oddball models with know biases like the NavGEm, NAM, CRAS right now and look at where they are relative to normal vs other models I-95 from PHL to NYC and vicinity is about as bullseye as you can be for this event...and being under 72 hours out thats pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you take the oddball models with know biases like the NavGEm, NAM, CRAS right now and look at where they are relative to normal vs other models I-95 from PHL to NYC and vicinity is about as bullseye as you can be for this event...and being under 72 hours out thats pretty good.a lot of people usual hate the nam but for what it's worth, the nam has done really well as of late ImoI trust it over most guidance within 24-48hrs with the exception of the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Srefs! 1.00+ wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Srefs! 1.00+ wow I wanna believe them so bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM did excellent for Sunday storm, especially for timing on the precip and changeover. It may bust badly sometimes like the blizzard for NYC, but within 54 hours it is a good model to use. As for the GFS it has gotten a lot better this winter. Now I hope the ECMWF upgrades so it can become #1 again. At this point I think it is tied with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM did excellent for Sunday storm, especially for timing on the precip and changeover. It may bust badly sometimes like the blizzard for NYC, but within 54 hours it is a good model to use. As for the GFS it has gotten a lot better this winter. Now I hope the ECMWF upgrades so it can become #1 again. At this point I think it is tied with the GFS.In its mid range it did well but short term was off for LI and nyc. Only had 2inches for nyc right before event. All the other modeling besides SREFs did well in short term besides namI will say that the 4k nam nailed the event however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Some srefs ensembles for my area are 3.0" LE average is 1.25" for both storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Top is NYC bottom is Newburgh for refrence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ARW is pretty juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ARW is pretty juiced up. ARW only goes to Hr48 so your seeing tomorrow's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The idv gefs all were pretty good for a region wide 6+ snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Type of amount can we expect Clifton Passaic area from this storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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