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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on

 

 

Folks, best to go to the source:

Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD

"915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT

WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW

MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND

SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO

HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY

AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME

AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE

06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME

FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.

WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF

THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS

AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW

AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH

ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE

CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS

THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS

AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS

ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS."

 

I know warlock well, as we both have been on the RU sports boards for years (decades, lol).  He does troll sometimes, as he likes to tweak snow lovers, since he hates snow, but he also has good insights, like many of us do at times and on this one, his inference was correct, relative to why the NWS decreased snowfall amounts in a few places along I-95.  He said, possibly due to delayed changeover from rain to snow and the NWS quote is, "HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY

AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME."  Now, he could have seen that at 8:35 pm and then posted to that effect 90 minutes later, but I'd rather take it at face value.  Just sayin'...

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It's more realistic and less than the SV snow map.

I can really only speak for my area in NENJ, but I've found the snow maps from tropical tidbits this season to be the most accurate by far. The other maps have always been overdone by a couple inches to several inches. Not sure why really

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I know warlock well, as we both have been on the RU sports boards for years (decades, lol).  He does troll sometimes, as he likes to tweak snow lovers, since he hates snow, but he also has good insights, like many of us do at times and on this one, his inference was correct, relative to why the NWS decreased snowfall amounts in a few places along I-95.  He said, possibly due to delayed changeover from rain to snow and the NWS quote is, "HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY

AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME."  Now, he could have seen that at 8:35 pm and then posted to that effect 90 minutes later, but I'd rather take it at face value.  Just sayin'...

 

Is he as bad as a sports poster as he is a weather poster? 

 

Let me guess he had RU football winning zero games last year

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I can really only speak for my area in NENJ, but I've found the snow maps from tropical tidbits this season to be the most accurate by far. The other maps have always been overdone by a couple inches to several inches. Not sure why really

SV snow maps are usually very conservative. I can't believe me of all people talking about snow maps.

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03z HRRR has 5-7" for NENJ/NYC/LI through the end of its run (up to 15 hours) and still snowing while the heavier band pulls south a bit. Heaviest snow from around 5am to 10am. But I am cautious because the HRRR recently has showed it snowing while it's been raining, and has been way way off (like 50-100 miles off even) with the rain/snow line. Therefore, if it's 3 hours off, you can take 3 inches off. Looks good though for now

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Based on latest guidance qpf and likely 60 - 90 mins before we would get good accumulation heres a porojection of snowfall based off transition time from rain to snow.

 

 

Changeover time: /  Snowfall "  NYC

 

1AM - 2AM  : 6 - 9

2AM - 3AM :  5 - 8

3AM - 4AM :  4 - 7

4AM - 5AM:  3 - 6

5AM - 6AM ; 2 - 5

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Based on latest guidance qpf and likely 60 - 90 mins before we would get good accumulation heres a porojection of snowfall based off transition time from rain to snow.

Changeover time: / Snowfall " NYC

1AM - 2AM : 6 - 9

2AM - 3AM : 5 - 8

3AM - 4AM : 4 - 7

4AM - 5AM: 3 - 6

5AM - 6AM ; 2 - 5

The HRRR does show the transition between 4-5am, but with accumulations (if extrapolated) more like 6-9"....not that I believe it, but it's very juicy

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