Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 How come on tropical tidbits the accumulations, for example for EWR, are pretty much exactly half of that ? sv maps could be counting sleet? it looks like the area is .6-.8 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Beautiful moisture feed from that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I saw the SV snow map 12-15" for LI at 10:1...lol wtf is going on. Sorry but no way this verifies. Going to bust very close in which is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv maps could be counting sleet? it looks like the area is .6-.8 all snow Yeah maybe, not sure. I doubt much mixing if any before the changeover. Looks like 4-7" for NENJ/NYC AND 7-10" for areas to the south and parts of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 How come on tropical tidbits the accumulations, for example for EWR, are pretty much exactly half of that (at least in the snow whole area that the GFS and RGEM continue to show over NENJ) ? this looks very similar to sv maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Beautiful moisture feed from that image. El Nino is finally getting the job done-look at the feed directly from that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 this looks very similar to sv maps It's more realistic and less than the SV snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on Folks, best to go to the source: Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD "915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. 835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST. WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS." I know warlock well, as we both have been on the RU sports boards for years (decades, lol). He does troll sometimes, as he likes to tweak snow lovers, since he hates snow, but he also has good insights, like many of us do at times and on this one, his inference was correct, relative to why the NWS decreased snowfall amounts in a few places along I-95. He said, possibly due to delayed changeover from rain to snow and the NWS quote is, "HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME." Now, he could have seen that at 8:35 pm and then posted to that effect 90 minutes later, but I'd rather take it at face value. Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv maps could be counting sleet? it looks like the area is .6-.8 all snow Just post the snow map so these guys can see and take it down in like 10 mins. I could care less about snow maps but this one made me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It's more realistic and less than the SV snow map. I can really only speak for my area in NENJ, but I've found the snow maps from tropical tidbits this season to be the most accurate by far. The other maps have always been overdone by a couple inches to several inches. Not sure why really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 hemi.wv.gif People should check out the ssts in Enso. This is having a big influence...that turbo charged jet from the Pacific is classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know warlock well, as we both have been on the RU sports boards for years (decades, lol). He does troll sometimes, as he likes to tweak snow lovers, since he hates snow, but he also has good insights, like many of us do at times and on this one, his inference was correct, relative to why the NWS decreased snowfall amounts in a few places along I-95. He said, possibly due to delayed changeover from rain to snow and the NWS quote is, "HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME." Now, he could have seen that at 8:35 pm and then posted to that effect 90 minutes later, but I'd rather take it at face value. Just sayin'... Is he as bad as a sports poster as he is a weather poster? Let me guess he had RU football winning zero games last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Taking this from 9z, 24 hrs out to show all frozen for LI, this is conservatively 8" - 10" of snow, at 10:1, considering the transition looks to occur an hour or two before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I can really only speak for my area in NENJ, but I've found the snow maps from tropical tidbits this season to be the most accurate by far. The other maps have always been overdone by a couple inches to several inches. Not sure why really SV snow maps are usually very conservative. I can't believe me of all people talking about snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'd say this is an average of 10-1 ratios-the snow at the beginning will be less and might melt unless it comes down heavy right away, at the end it will be a dry snow that's more like 15-1. Models have it lasting now until possibly 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Kind of amazing this has the potential to be the biggest snow event of the season in March no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NYC biggest snowstorm was on March 12, 1888. I know we had a different climate back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NYC biggest snowstorm was on March 12, 1888. I know we had a different climate back then. I'm pretty sure our highest accumulation was in Feb '06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm pretty sure our highest accumulation was in Feb '06. That was fake snow you could see through, so it doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm pretty sure that if they measured snow then like they do now that March 1888 would have been over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm pretty sure that if they measured snow then like they do now that March 1888 would have been over 30. Agreed. Also, It was NYC's biggest snow at the time and for almost 60 years beyond that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 03z HRRR has 5-7" for NENJ/NYC/LI through the end of its run (up to 15 hours) and still snowing while the heavier band pulls south a bit. Heaviest snow from around 5am to 10am. But I am cautious because the HRRR recently has showed it snowing while it's been raining, and has been way way off (like 50-100 miles off even) with the rain/snow line. Therefore, if it's 3 hours off, you can take 3 inches off. Looks good though for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Based on latest guidance qpf and likely 60 - 90 mins before we would get good accumulation heres a porojection of snowfall based off transition time from rain to snow. Changeover time: / Snowfall " NYC 1AM - 2AM : 6 - 9 2AM - 3AM : 5 - 8 3AM - 4AM : 4 - 7 4AM - 5AM: 3 - 6 5AM - 6AM ; 2 - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 SPC has the 0C 850 contour running about 10 miles south of the Westchester-Putnam County border. Should see a changeover in northern Westchester soon. Plenty of cold air to the northwest as the -20C contour runs from Detroit to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GGEM is 6+ from NYC South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Based on latest guidance qpf and likely 60 - 90 mins before we would get good accumulation heres a porojection of snowfall based off transition time from rain to snow. Changeover time: / Snowfall " NYC 1AM - 2AM : 6 - 9 2AM - 3AM : 5 - 8 3AM - 4AM : 4 - 7 4AM - 5AM: 3 - 6 5AM - 6AM ; 2 - 5 The HRRR does show the transition between 4-5am, but with accumulations (if extrapolated) more like 6-9"....not that I believe it, but it's very juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET from 12Z on is roughly 6-7 for NYC, could be more if it changes over by 10Z as RGEM has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 OK, enough about NJ and the City, what are the projected times for change over in Suffolk County and the alleged snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GEFS hits NYC with both waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just looking at the radar loops, its clear that R/S line is pushing furiously SE. 2-3 AM is a good change over time for NYC. Everything's going according to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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