MJO812 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rgem looks great. Someone post the snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 4" to I-84 and 8" to I-80 may have been the right call after all at this rate. JM, that`s exactly where I am . Max of 10 off to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 rgem is out. Hard to tell precip with black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Oh please. As if they've been on the money on every storm this year. The map update was questionable simply because the latest runs came in with a further north solution. In turn, they trimmed the 6-8 inch line further south. Its just strange is all.Hes just trolling... No use responding brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 They pushed the 4 to 6 further N W and only took a sliver of 6- 8 down . Trimmed Middlesex , that's all . Folks, best to go to the source: Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD "915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. 835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST. WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hes just trolling... No use responding brother. Indeed. He's like the guy who lurks on an art forum 24/7 but hates art and every time the forum gets excited about a new work the guy needs to say "its just splattered ink." Yeah banter, but needed to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Folks, best to go to the source: Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD "915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. 835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE 06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST. WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS." Walt . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00Z HRGEM and RGEM maps posted. 6-8" on the HRGEM for all of NYC LI and S CT, some higher pockets showing up as well. Solid hit. Wonder if we go from nothing to warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What do you think about back home in Holmdel 8 ? or + id say 6-9" in holmdel, final call 4-8 in NYC, 5-6 favored Changeover by 2-3AM in NYc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Seasons: I think those maps are from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 id say 6-9" in holmdel, final call 4-8 in NYC, 5-6 favored Changeover by 2-3AM in NYc? Holmdel elevation by the park will help them in a storm like this, i expect them to jackpot for Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This is really coming around to what I saw this as-a high potential storm with lots of El Nino-infused moisture that can surprise with big snow amounts where it's cold enough. I was nervous for a little while with the compressing snow area but I'm glad to see the models came around given how little confluence we have north of the area. I think some areas within good banding may exceed 12" when it's all done. NYC should surpass 40" on the season with this, possibly with room to spare. Expect 12 hours (1-2am to 1-2pm) of up to 1-2" per hour snow. It should be a fun ride. And trust me, the cold air's coming. It crashed here from 70 at 4pm to 30s now with howling north winds. It should be pretty sudden once the front clears through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 id say 6-9" in holmdel, final call 4-8 in NYC, 5-6 favored Changeover by 2-3AM in NYc? Looks 3 ish - then we bomb away . I like 8 . But either side of it will do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Seasons: I think those maps are from yesterday. They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My snow map Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 change over on the gfs around 3am….heavy snow from 12z-18z really ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rgem did cut back a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GFS 1.00+ ttn-nyc 1.25+ gets into costal ocean and monmouth .75 up to hpn not all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 They are. My fault. On the top it says Thu Mar 5th 00Z, but the map is still from 00Z mar 4th, sorry about that I didn't check the map figured it was right since the top part was updated to Thursday 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NWS's 4-7 call is a perfect call in my opinion.....ratios I doubt will be very impressive overall. If we go from 8:1 to 12:1 during the heavier stuff, it may average to the 10:1 anyway.....around 5" looks like a good amount to forecast right now for the NENJ/NYC area.....7-10" in that heavier banding a bit further south. It will be a quick hitting, thump snow with low ratios that gradually decreases in intensity as the ratios increase a bit.....I don't think it will really feel like "two waves" but more like a few hours of heavier wet snow, 4 or 5 hours of moderate snow, and a few more hours of light snow as it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php The GFS is 1.25 . The models are still playing catch up . That precip originates in Mexico . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv snow maps are 12+ Long Island 10-12 ocean and Middlesex counties 8-10 from ttn-ewr-nyc 4-8 northern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv snow maps are 12+ Long Island 10-12 ocean and Middlesex counties 8-10 from ttn-ewr-nyc 4-8 northern nj Do they include ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv snow maps are 12+ Long Island 10-12 ocean and Middlesex counties 8-10 from ttn-ewr-nyc 4-8 northern nj This sounds like the best call.. Although contradicting NWS most recent maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Do they include ratios? 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 You're right about the flow straight from the tropical Pacific. This is a case where models might be too dry. The air across the entire South has been humid as anything over the last few days and it's all being lifted up with the cold front. I was actually sweating when I walked outside today and it was in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php The GFS is 1.25 . The models are still playing catch up . That precip originates in Mexico . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 sv snow maps are 12+ Long Island 10-12 ocean and Middlesex counties 8-10 from ttn-ewr-nyc 4-8 northern nj How come on tropical tidbits the accumulations, for example for EWR, are pretty much exactly half of that (at least in the snow whole area that the GFS and RGEM continue to show over NENJ) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 the trend tonight has been the more robust second wave…. Going to be fun in the morning with 1in hr rates…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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