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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Oh please. As if they've been on the money on every storm this year. The map update was questionable simply because the latest runs came in with a further north solution. In turn, they trimmed the 6-8 inch line further south. Its just strange is all.

Hes just trolling... No use responding brother.
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They pushed the 4 to 6 further N W and only took a sliver of 6- 8 down . Trimmed Middlesex , that's all . StormTotalSnowRange.png

Folks, best to go to the source:

Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD

"915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT

WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW

MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND

SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO

HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY

AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME

AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE

06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME

FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.

WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF

THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS

AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW

AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH

ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE

CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS

THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS

AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS

ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS."

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Folks, best to go to the source:

Relevant snippet from most recent Mt. Holly AFD

"915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT

WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW

MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND

SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO

HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY

AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME

AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE

06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME

FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.

WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF

THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS

AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW

AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH

ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE

CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS

THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS

AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS

ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS."

Walt .

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This is really coming around to what I saw this as-a high potential storm with lots of El Nino-infused moisture that can surprise with big snow amounts where it's cold enough. I was nervous for a little while with the compressing snow area but I'm glad to see the models came around given how little confluence we have north of the area. I think some areas within good banding may exceed 12" when it's all done. NYC should surpass 40" on the season with this, possibly with room to spare. Expect 12 hours (1-2am to 1-2pm) of up to 1-2" per hour snow. It should be a fun ride. And trust me, the cold air's coming. It crashed here from 70 at 4pm to 30s now with howling north winds. It should be pretty sudden once the front clears through. 

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NWS's 4-7 call is a perfect call in my opinion.....ratios I doubt will be very impressive overall. If we go from 8:1 to 12:1 during the heavier stuff, it may average to the 10:1 anyway.....around 5" looks like a good amount to forecast right now for the NENJ/NYC area.....7-10" in that heavier banding a bit further south. It will be a quick hitting, thump snow with low ratios that gradually decreases in intensity as the ratios increase a bit.....I don't think it will really feel like "two waves" but more like a few hours of heavier wet snow, 4 or 5 hours of moderate snow, and a few more hours of light snow as it pulls away

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You're right about the flow straight from the tropical Pacific. This is a case where models might be too dry. The air across the entire South has been humid as anything over the last few days and it's all being lifted up with the cold front. I was actually sweating when I walked outside today and it was in the 60s. 

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sv snow maps are 12+ Long Island

10-12 ocean and Middlesex counties

8-10 from ttn-ewr-nyc

4-8 northern nj

How come on tropical tidbits the accumulations, for example for EWR, are pretty much exactly half of that (at least in the snow whole area that the GFS and RGEM continue to show over NENJ) ?
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