Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah I have no idea what he is looking at.. It shows a 2-4" event for most up here unless we can work magic with ratios .50 line runs from FWN through Rockland and into N Westchester. Yes, my fault. You guys are way to far north for this if the nam is correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Someone in North central NJ is going to get close to a foot on this Might as well be us, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It's weird seeing the NAM drier than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Might as well be us, eh? just the guys for the job…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks The radar looks beautiful and things have definitely trended our way. When do you think NYC metro will transition to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks What do you think about back home in Holmdel 8 ? or + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks Oh no. Now you did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The radar looks beautiful and things have definitely trended our way. When do you think NYC metro will transition to snow? I give it to 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 3-4am is my guess right now, we'll see what the RGEM says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why do weather bell maps only have 4 inches in NYC while instant weather maps have 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why do weather bell maps only have 4 inches in NYC while instant weather maps have 6+ wb is 10-1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 3-4am is my guess right now, we'll see what the RGEM says 3am seems like the best answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 After midnight and before sunrise! Best answer yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What is the temp suppose to drop to? That low to bump up ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Surprised nobody mentioned the GEM-LAM, 18z was better than 12z..... 18z Gem-Lam snow 12z Gem-Lam snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks healthy. http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/new-jersey/weather-radar?play=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 updated 926 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 updated 926 pm Lol... They are actually all over the place. That 6-8 line has protruded southward, going against all of the latest model data. You would think that line would have expanded further north. I don't even know what to think of them anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Mt.Hollys map suggests it will take a long time to transition. It wouldn't make sense to cut down due to lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Same with the way Upton forecasts...models trend south they increase totals, models trend north/snowier they decrease totals. Yesterday, 12z/18z runs looked like sh!t and trended way south from 00Z, Upton goes 4-6 for CT, 6-8 coast and SE. Last night 00Z trends back north, wetter/snowier Upton decreases totals a bit to 3-4, 4-6. 12z runs come out another jump north 18z ever farther north...upton takes down watches and replaces with advisories and nothing at all for n new London where a watch was up for 4-8". Again they decrease totals in CT to 2-3, 3-4" I'm fully expecting them to go back to a warning from the advisory...just like they did last week, they waver so much its getting to be pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Bizaar, maybe because it is still warm. But, being warmer is going to keep the axis of heavier snow further north. Lol... They are actually all over the place. That 6-8 line has protruded southward, going against all of the latest model data. You would think that line would have expanded further north. I don't even know what to think of them anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Mt.Hollys map suggests it will take a long time to transition. It wouldn't make sense to cut down due to lack of precip. it really does not suggest that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on Did you talk to them? Thats what they feel? i understand thats a concern, but i feel we should worry about that if its 3am and still raining. All the models start the change over process between 1-3am….until then i feel the "wasting qpf" crys are uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on They pushed the 4 to 6 further N W and only took a sliver of 6- 8 down . Trimmed Middlesex , that's all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on People question the NWS because they've made some colossal bungles this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on Oh please. As if they've been on the money on every storm this year. The map update was questionable simply because the latest runs came in with a further north solution. In turn, they trimmed the 6-8 inch line further south. Its just strange is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 4" to I-84 and 8" to I-80 may have been the right call after all at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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