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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Yeah I have no idea what he is looking at.. It shows a 2-4" event for most up here unless we can work magic with ratios

.50 line runs from FWN through Rockland and into N Westchester.

 

Yes, my fault. You guys are way to far north for this if the nam is correct...

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I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks

The radar looks beautiful and things have definitely trended our way. When do you think NYC metro will transition to snow?

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I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks

What do you think about back home  in Holmdel 8  ?  or +

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I give in. I'm going to prove to have been too pessimistic on this earlier today. Yes we will get a good deal of rain before the changeover, but the dynamics are impressive and we will collect more than 4-5 in NYC it looks

Oh no. Now you did it.

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updated 926 pm

 

Lol... They are actually all over the place. That 6-8 line has protruded southward, going against all of the latest model data. You would think that line would have expanded further north. I don't even know what to think of them anymore... 

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Same with the way Upton forecasts...models trend south they increase totals, models trend north/snowier they decrease totals.

Yesterday, 12z/18z runs looked like sh!t and trended way south from 00Z, Upton goes 4-6 for CT, 6-8 coast and SE. Last night 00Z trends back north, wetter/snowier Upton decreases totals a bit to 3-4, 4-6. 12z runs come out another jump north 18z ever farther north...upton takes down watches and replaces with advisories and nothing at all for n new London where a watch was up for 4-8". Again they decrease totals in CT to 2-3, 3-4"

I'm fully expecting them to go back to a warning from the advisory...just like they did last week, they waver so much its getting to be pretty sad.

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Bizaar, maybe because it is still warm. But, being warmer is going to keep the axis of heavier snow further north.

Lol... They are actually all over the place. That 6-8 line has protruded southward, going against all of the latest model data. You would think that line would have expanded further north. I don't even know what to think of them anymore...

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Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on

 

Did you talk to them? Thats what they feel?

 

 

i understand thats a concern, but i feel we should worry about that if its 3am and still raining.

 

All the models start the change over process between 1-3am….until then i feel the "wasting qpf" crys are uncalled for.

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Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on

They pushed the  4 to 6 further N W and only took  a sliver of 6- 8 down .  Trimmed Middlesex , that's all . StormTotalSnowRange.png

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Why are people questioning Mt Holly...those are seasoned mets..they probably feel the totals are cut somewhat by rain holding on

 

Oh please. As if they've been on the money on every storm this year. The map update was questionable simply because the latest runs came in with a further north solution. In turn, they trimmed the 6-8 inch line further south. Its just strange is all. 

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