Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If I had to guess for first sleet/snow mix with rain times: Sussex: 12:00AM Morristown: 12:40AM Newark: 1:00AM NYC: 1:15AM SI/Driscoll Br: 1:35AM S Midlsx/Mnmth 1:50AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gefs agree with the 1st rd of snow and is further north with the 2nd rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It looks like the gefs is north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems like some areas are chilling quicker then others? I didn't expect to be close to 35 till closer to midnight or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wonder if its done coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A State of Emergency has been declared for NJ due to the impending winter storm, didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems like some areas are chilling quicker then others? I didn't expect to be close to 35 till closer to midnight or something You are surrounded by 32 or lower water. It's more of a seabreeze than CAA at this point. It might help; I'm not sure but assume it isn't as shallow as radiational cooling. That might be why a lot of the model weenie diagrams have been painting freezing rain for a period over the sound while it rains onshore in both LI and CT. The models are picking up the lower surface temps over the cold water / ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I wonder if its done coming north It cannot come much further north with the cold air mass and high approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A State of Emergency has been declared for NJ due to the impending winter storm, didn't see that coming. Since when. Show me evidence...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You are surrounded by 32 or lower water. It's more of a seabreeze than CAA at this point. It might help; I'm not sure but assume it isn't as shallow as radiational cooling. That might be why a lot of the model weenie diagrams have been painting freezing rain for a period over the sound while it rains onshore in both LI and CT. The models are picking up the lower surface temps over the cold water / ice. Idiot me,dunno why our how I even forgot about that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems like some areas are chilling quicker then others? I didn't expect to be close to 35 till closer to midnight or something The cold push capable of snow runs from about BGM-PIT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You are surrounded by 32 or lower water. It's more of a seabreeze than CAA at this point. It might help; I'm not sure but assume it isn't as shallow as radiational cooling. That might be why a lot of the model weenie diagrams have been painting freezing rain for a period over the sound while it rains onshore in both LI and CT. The models are picking up the lower surface temps over the cold water / ice. It's kind of wacky but possible to have 29 degree salt water cool the air around it enough to lower it below 32 an thus freeze falling fresh water!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/03/04/gov-christie-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A State of Emergency has been declared for NJ due to the impending winter storm, didn't see that coming. Although I totally believe you, as you are a reliable poster - do you have a source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Although I totally believe you, as you are a reliable poster - do you have a source? Nevermind, wthrmn56 posted a link haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Although I totally believe you, as you are a reliable poster - do you have a source?It's true, check Chris Christies Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/03/04/gov-christie-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-winter-storm/ I don't understand this at all....this is just an average storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't understand how you can announce state of emergency when we are only expecting anywhere between 3 to 5 inches maybe little bit more northern area. Pure panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Although I totally believe you, as you are a reliable poster - do you have a source? Office of OEM messaged us at JHSN. They've updated the site as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The radar has a snow " look" already so it's possible it's snowing not that far aloft maybe 3-4k right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's true, check Chris Christies Twitter I'm not saying I don't believe you but its just wrong to even do that it doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I do believe there seeing more then 3-5 inches in Jersey I don't understand how you can announce state of emergency when we are only expecting anywhere between 3 to 5 inches maybe little bit more northern area. Pure panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I do believe there seeing more then 3-5 inches in Jersey once again I'm not arguing with anybody but it's not like we're expecting 18 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't understand how you can announce state of emergency when we are only expecting anywhere between 3 to 5 inches maybe little bit more northern area. Pure panic.It frees up overtime for public workers who do salting and removal. Where the otherwise would be assigned elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here in N.Y., the only salt provider has been unable to bring in any shipments till maybe next week and many here are at 0 supply wise and I'm talking about road salt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 He called a state of emergency for the 3 inch blizzard and a minor 2 inch event in November...windbag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 President Christie issued a state of emergency, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You are surrounded by 32 or lower water. It's more of a seabreeze than CAA at this point. It might help; I'm not sure but assume it isn't as shallow as radiational cooling. That might be why a lot of the model weenie diagrams have been painting freezing rain for a period over the sound while it rains onshore in both LI and CT. The models are picking up the lower surface temps over the cold water / ice. You should post more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Mr. Kocin speaks... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD411 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015VALID 00Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 00Z SUN MAR 08 2015DAYS 1 AND 2......SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GULFCOAST/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...A COMPLEX AND WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLYUNDERWAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEENCHARACTERIZED BY VARIOUS PHASE TRANSITIONS MAKING FOR ACHALLENGING FORECAST OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS. INMANY LOCATIONS...THERE ARE COMBINATIONS OF ALL 3. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A DRAMATIC GRADIENT BETWEEN THEHEAVIEST SNOW AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MAIN SNOWBAND...WITH SMALLDIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REPRESENTING POTENTIALLY LARGEDIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE ALSO IS THE CHALLENGE OFTIMING THE CHANGEOVERS FROM ONE PHASE TO ANOTHER AND WHAT FORM THECHANGEOVER ENTAILS. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE A LIFTINGTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES...ONE AFAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE US CANADIANBORDER AND THE OTHER A SHARP SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BOTH ASSOCIATED WITHAN IMPRESSIVE COLD OUTBREAK FOR EARLY MARCH. THIS SYSTEM WILLCOMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AS A POWERFUL UPPER JETCROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A BROAD CONFLUENT ZONEWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR SLIP FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THENEXT 36 HOURS. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ORIGINATESFAR SOUTHWARD OVER THE TROPICS AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE BROAD AREA OF RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOWWILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALLCONTINUING TO BE INDICATED TO EXTEND EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROMARKANSAS ACROSS NW TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND WESTVIRGINIA. THIS AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERNVIRGINIA/DELAWARE/SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS NEW JERSEY. MANYOF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER THAN 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWWITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR 8+ INCHES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WESTVIRGINIA. ALL OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL GO THROUGH A SIMILARTRANSITION PROCESS FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN TOSNOW. WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR RESULTS IN A CHANGE TO SNOW ANDSLEET...MORE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL MORE LIKELY RESULT IN GREATERAMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERNTEXAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERNALABAMA. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAINAMOUNTS EXCEEDING .25 INCHES FROM EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS ACROSSNORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS STILL THE LIKELIHOOD THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BECOMMON FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK CITY ALTHOUGH THERE AREISSUES ON THE NORTH END OF LOWER TOTALS AND ON THE SOUTHERN ENDWITH CHANGEOVER TIMES. WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATED APOSSIBLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF AREA...LATER FORECASTS BY THE18Z NAM/12Z UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL HAD FARTHER NORTHSOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT THE FEWER CHANGES TO PREVIOUSFORECASTS...THE BETTER.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's kind of wacky but possible to have 29 degree salt water cool the air around it enough to lower it below 32 an thus freeze falling fresh water!!! Yep. I'm at 36.7 down almost 3 degrees in last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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