snow1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think its further north then 12z…just that the first wave is stronger and gives the metro area more snow.This!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think its further north then 12z…just that the first wave is stronger and gives the metro area more snow. Yeah, it actually looks like the first wave steals some moisture from the 2nd wave, hence the lighter QPF in the D.C area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hey try being in the actual military when it comes to inclement weather . Good luck getting a day off then Hahah. One of the reasons I work in a school system; you do mental health work in a hospital you are on call no matter what. In my job, when the kids and teachers don't have to come, neither do I. And word from the assist super is that they are ready to close for tomorrow if it's starts snowing before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Making a forecast for ne jersey. Everyone agree with me that 4-7 is a good bet right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I know. NYC has a shot tomorrow since 5" is doable. This would be the first 40" season in NYC with a DJF positive AO for each month since 1950. We already broke the previous record of 24.5" in 92-93. This is already the only season in the last 55 years to not have a 10" storm, but be over 30". I don't have individual storm data before 1959-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Making a forecast for ne jersey. Everyone agree with me that 4-7 is a good bet right now? Yes atm its a good bet. If the first wave turns to snow faster, and the 2nd wave trends north, then it would be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 im not looking at any raw data but my best guess 1st wave 4-6 for the metro area 2-4 central nj 2nd wave 3-6 from nyc-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Get a better source There is at least one major media outlet calling for 1-3. I refer colleagues here and to you for pbp. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Some of that is going to be lost to rain/taint, but overall I think the 4-8" is a great call and possibly 6-10" areawide. We still have to get through the 00z runs... I thought 4"-8" was the perfect call, but if the 0z suite bumps north again, I think 5"-10" is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 1.00+ gets to nyc 1.25+ for monmouth and mercer counties not all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 (and those of us in Central Jersey that was sweating it out too) ha ha ha GFS is 1.3 at KNYC . Prob lose .5 to rain . Have to play beat the clock later as every hour is going to matter . This is the 1st time we have had to recover the mid levels and BL , so you hope the models get the change over right and then you see what is left . The back end gets real cold so even if MC gets 1.4 and lose .7 you could still pull out 10 in the end . Most of the models are 6 plus , the GFS is now the wettest and only the UKIE is close with it`s .8 snow at KNYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is already the only season in the last 55 years to not have a 10" storm, but be over 30". I don't have individual storm data before 1959-60. weird but up here in the bx we've had better luck breaking double digits..i had close to 13 inches during that bootleg blizzard we had ..and most events have ended in a bust on the positive side i'd say..the city only registers 3 nws sites,sometimes i wish the bronx had it's own just because we usually get more then most other parts of the city,for the season i've already cracked the 40 inch mark compared to about 31 inches in cpk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z GFS is way north and a warning event for almost everyone: Models consistently ( at least ones depicted here ) seem to show a hole in north central nj and near the city of less precip. Is it the timing of the two waves? Some here are saying there aren't two waves anymore.....what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 .5 gets to Boston will be enough to break the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally Models consistently ( at least ones depicted here ) seem to show a hole in north central nj and near the city of less precip. Is it the timing of the two waves? Some here are saying there aren't two waves anymore.....what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 sv snow maps have the jackpot from central nj-nyc/LI 8-10 less in snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally I think its one or the two, I could be wrong but not buying into that hole, we cash in on one of those waves imo. (and yes this is full wishcast.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 sv snow maps have the jackpot from central nj-nyc/LI 8-10 less in snj I don't like asking IMBY questions, but how does it look for Union Co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NWS should have waited for the 18z suite before updating I agree , why not wait the extra 30-60 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't like asking IMBY questions, but how does it look for Union Co? 8-10 it includes all of north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It all comes down to when we changeover. Sometimes this happens very quickly other times it takes its sweet time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 8-10 it includes all of north jersey Alright thanks allsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How you guys think coastal Monmouth does? 6-8 a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is 1.3 at KNYC . Prob lose .5 to rain . Have to play beat the clock later as every hour is going to matter . This is the 1st time we have had to recover the mid levels and BL , so you hope the models get the change over right and then you see what is left . The back end gets real cold so even if MC gets 1.4 and lose .7 you could still pull out 10 in the end . Most of the models are 6 plus , the GFS is now the wettest and only the UKIE is close with it`s .8 snow at KNYC . oh I agree. 8 inches should be a lock down here at least. I'll be sleeping with one eye shut tonight and the other eye focused on my backyard patio spotlights waiting for that changeover. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How you guys think coastal Monmouth does? 6-8 a good call yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 8-10 it includes all of north jersey Dunno, lot of Union is in that hole. The area is often less than surrounding areas for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dunno, lot of Union is in that hole. The area is often less than surrounding areas for whatever reason. He is using SV maps not IVM. I really wouldn't worry about that hole if your south of NYC in Union Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dunno, lot of Union is in that hole. The area is often less than surrounding areas for whatever reason. This is not up to debate…these are paid maps off a model site. Im not reading them wrong, some of that might include sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Changeover going to take a while...State College, PA still 36F and rain. But that is ok, delayed, not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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