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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Hey try being in the actual military when it comes to inclement weather . Good luck getting a day off then Hahah.

One of the reasons I work in a school system; you do mental health work in a hospital you are on call no matter what. In my job, when the kids and teachers don't have to come, neither do I. And word from the assist super is that they are ready to close for tomorrow if it's starts snowing before dawn.

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I know. NYC has a shot tomorrow since 5" is doable. This would be the first 40" season in NYC with

a DJF positive AO for each month since 1950. We already broke the previous record of 24.5" in 92-93.

This is already the only season in the last 55 years to not have a 10" storm, but be over 30".

I don't have individual storm data before 1959-60.

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Some of that is going to be lost to rain/taint, but overall I think the 4-8" is a great call and possibly 6-10" areawide. We still have to get through the 00z runs...

I thought 4"-8" was the perfect call, but if the 0z suite bumps north again, I think 5"-10" is better.

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Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). 

 

 

at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally

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(and those of us in Central Jersey that was sweating it out too) ha ha ha 

GFS is 1.3 at KNYC  . Prob lose .5 to rain . Have to play beat the clock later as every hour is going to matter .

 

This is the 1st  time we have had to recover the mid levels and BL , so you hope the models get the change over right and then you see what is left .

 

The back end gets real cold so even if MC gets 1.4 and lose .7 you could still pull out 10 in the end .

 

Most of the models are 6 plus , the GFS is now the wettest and only the UKIE is close with it`s .8 snow at KNYC .

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This is already the only season in the last 55 years to not have a 10" storm, but be over 30".

I don't have individual storm data before 1959-60.

weird but up here in the bx we've had better luck breaking double digits..i had close to 13 inches during that bootleg blizzard we had ..and most events have ended in a bust on the positive side i'd say..the city only registers 3 nws sites,sometimes i wish the bronx had it's own just because we usually get more then most other parts of the city,for the season i've already cracked the 40 inch mark compared to about 31 inches in cpk..

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18z GFS is way north and a warning event for almost everyone:

 

gMJHKMM.png

Models consistently ( at least ones depicted here ) seem to show a hole in north central nj and near the city of less precip. Is it the timing of the two waves? Some here are saying there aren't two waves anymore.....what gives?

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Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). 

 

 

at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally

 

 

Models consistently ( at least ones depicted here ) seem to show a hole in north central nj and near the city of less precip. Is it the timing of the two waves? Some here are saying there aren't two waves anymore.....what gives?

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Well ignoring the nam and looking at 18z guidance right down to nowcasting suggests that NW suburbs should do quite fine with the initial wave coming up. Frontogenesis and elevation will help them cool first and a lot of that qpf will dump probably warning criteria snow for NW NJ to LHV..95 east is gonna struggle a bit more to cool off overnight and hence a little more wasted to rain..there could still be a relative hole over the city and NE NJ compared to north of there (wave 1) and south of there (wave 2). 

 

 

at the end of the day, just calling this 4-8 area wide was probably the best thing to do...i still think 4-5 at KNYC is the best bet personally

I think its one or the two, I could be wrong but not buying into that hole, we cash in on one of those waves imo. (and yes this is full wishcast.)

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GFS is 1.3 at KNYC  . Prob lose .5 to rain . Have to play beat the clock later as every hour is going to matter .

 

This is the 1st  time we have had to recover the mid levels and BL , so you hope the models get the change over right and then you see what is left .

 

The back end gets real cold so even if MC gets 1.4 and lose .7 you could still pull out 10 in the end .

 

Most of the models are 6 plus , the GFS is now the wettest and only the UKIE is close with it`s .8 snow at KNYC .

oh I agree.  8 inches should be a lock down here at least. I'll be sleeping with one eye shut tonight and the other eye focused on my backyard patio spotlights waiting for that changeover. ha ha ha 

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