wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Uk on wb not as impressive as i thought it would be..But still a nice hit overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam is 3-6 on the snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How's that a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam is wetter because it hangs up the warm front and it drags coming south. No one east of the Apps gets more than 6-7" on this run because of how slow it is with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam weenie map looks very unimpressive. Way people were talking, I was expecting a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I must be looking at a different nam model. total precip looks about the same from 12 Z to 18Z It's much further Northwest with the precip filed. That didn't really lead to higher numbers in most places because a lot of what falls is with lighter rates. To simplify this, it's 1" LE as 0.25" for 4 hours vs 1" LE as 0.10" for 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam weenie mapAfter all the "big hit" screaming, you see that snow map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 looks very unimpressive. Way people were talking, I was expecting a huge shift. A lot of what falls is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 As of now I'm looking at about 1-2" type deal tops.. Woulda liked to see 2-4 but this is def a city South special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The snow maps don't look great because of mixing issues, but I assure you that the precip fields shifted well NW. The weenie maps are for the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE GEM RGEM GEFS SREF NAM EURO all show 6 and 6 plus now at KNYC . More S and SW What a turn of events since early this morning. If the northern movements continue into the 00Z runs, this board will explode. Some of the models taken verbatim only need another 25 mile shift north to make a big difference. Should be a fun night of radar watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thats only through 3z tomorrow...What? That map is valid Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 utter disaster. LMAO If this suddenly turned into 2" of rain like what the models had been originally showing that would be quite hilarious I don't believe those snow maps because they are showing heavy rain with temps around 33F and cold 850's/925's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam weenie map These maps do not work at KNYC Hour 18 it is -10 they go 12 to 1 Hour 21 it is -14 they go 15 to 1 . So where you see 4 it is likely 6 . Just posting a snow map is the simplest way to approach meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This thread is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Where in the heck are people getting that the nam just showed widespread 6+ inch amounts? Are my eyes failing me because that's what I just read in a previous post You guys are looking at 10 to 1 snow maps and they do not work when every layer is crashing and snow growth is going on'. KNYC may start at 6 to 1 - go to 10 to 1 then 15 to 1 for the last 6 hours . There is more than this than algo driven snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 does this show a reasonable location of the front As pig right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is realizing that the confluence to the North is going to be weaker, therefore the lift is more spread out instead of being focused over one area. So you get a larger area of moderate precip rather than a concentrated area of heavier precip surrounded by lighter rates. 18z NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This thread is for tonights storm. Its not for discussing other posters, its not for discussing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The HRRR continues to look great, changeover around 06-07z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The hi-res NAM seems to only show snow from hours 15 through 21. After that, it all sinks south and out. Even during hours 15-21, it is not a solid, heavy precip shield of snow. Southern NJ does better, but still not a big hit by any means. As with many of the storms, we have to put it all in perspective.....our expectations along with the north/south shifts as well as the trends in general this winter. This run is probably a few inches for NENJ/NYC, and more as you head south.....I just think it is rather misleading to some when a model shows 3" or 4", to call it 3-6" or 4-8", respectively.....again, not speaking of what could happen, but just the model output verbatim. Just as a north shift doesn't mean heavy snow, 3" accumulation for an area doesn't mean that it will probably go up to 6. In the majority of the forecasts this winter, the calls for my area have been "4-8, 3-6, 6-10, 2-4, 3-5 (obviously not including the massive busts with much higher ranges), I came away with the lower number in the range, or just below even that low number. Snow ratios are sometimes factored into the forecasts and usually just complicate them and make the range too high and overdone (not always, but usually). I understand sometimes why the NWS issues forecasts like that, which usually include the range with a tendency to be rather bullish more often than not.....but when we read model output on the forums here, I think it would be more helpful and less misleading to speak of the actual amounts that the models show, realistically. If it shows NYC receiving 3" and south central NJ at 6", that is not 3-6" for the "NYC areas" any more than it is 1-3", right? Just a few thoughts, being that "huge hit", "great hit", "good hit", and "pretty good hit" can be interpreted differently by everyone. Personally, unless I see some posters say "MASSIVE HIT", I know that it is probably overdone and not a great hit lol. Again, this is not about being positive/negative, just realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I see the 14 year old kids are complaining that the NAM doesn't show 10" of snow? LOL. Calm down. The 18z NAM is much better then the previous run. It's not only about the pretty color shade over your house. The precip shield is much more expansive to the north and the 2nd wave moved 75 miles north. It's a 3"-6"/4"-8" type of run. More or less in line with the 4"-8" model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I see the 14 year old kids are complaining that the NAM doesn't show 10" of snow? LOL. Calm down. The 18z NAM is much better then the previous run. It's not only about the pretty color shade over your house. The precip shield is much more expansive to the north and the 2nd wave moved 75 miles north. It's a 3"-6"/4"-8" type of run. More or less in line with the 4"-8" model consensus. stop allsnow said its a nice hit…..def not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just looking at 500mb days ago, it was clear the confluence wouldn't be the reason for a miss near NYC, and that likely the models were suppressing the precip too much. There isn't a strong NW flow around a strong 500mb feature in NNE which would send dry air down and crush the storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I see the 14 year old kids are complaining that the NAM doesn't show 10" of snow? LOL. Calm down. The 18z NAM is much better then the previous run. It's not only about the pretty color shade over your house. The precip shield is much more expansive to the north and the 2nd wave moved 75 miles north. It's a 3"-6"/4"-8" type of run. More or less in line with the 4"-8" model consensus. Thank you. A voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow unreal. No more putting down the Gfs it really has proven to be much better than we've imagined.bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 FWIW just got a WSW alert on my phone... Details below..... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY349 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...NJZ107-108-NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179-051000-/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0006.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-349 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...EASTERN UNION COUNTY NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW YORK CITY...AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET AND SNOW THIS EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ICY ROADS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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