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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Well, they didn't have fancy computer graphics in those days...but I assure you...that's how it was.  On second glance...those old maps do not look incredibly far removed from what's going on.

Well considering that it was a year and a half before I was born, I will take your word for it.

 

That April and May featured many flooding rainstorms, another connection between 1984, 2010 and 2015.

 

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It's better for everyone, but it's about a 15 mile shift North. I was going off the crappy NCEP site since for some reason that's always the first source to update the SREF.

The 1.00" line is getting mighty close too. Not to take seriously, maybe the NAM will join the party now.

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Guest Pamela

I weather no two systems are the same.  It is much like a fingerprint, and that makes weather so interesting.  You know, but not really know exactly what will happen.

 

I didn't mean it was the exact same thing....the use of the colloquialism "carbon copy" was not meant to imply that...if that was what you read into it...my apologies. 

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I would say that the longer it takes the changover to complete the better we're going to end up with the second wave. Just a thought because the reason why the second wave goes south is because the boundary sinks south taking the best lift with it.

Problem with that thinking is that you're tempting fate. I would actually prefer to changeover quicker than expected, then take my chances after that.

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Interesting looking at the plumes there are three members that have the changeover later and give LGA up to 13" of snow.  In addition some of the quicker changeover time also has some hefty snowfalls.  So there are two scenarios that could give NYC more snow.

1) warmer air hangs in sending the second wave further north or 2) Colder air moves in faster letting the first wave to have more snow.or course there are some that give NYC less.

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Interesting looking at the plumes there are three members that have the changeover later and give LGA up to 13" of snow.  In addition some of the quicker changeover time also has some hefty snowfalls.  So there are two scenarios that could give NYC more snow.

1) warmer air hangs in sending the second wave further north or 2) Colder air moves in faster letting the first wave to have more snow.or course there are some that give NYC less.

At this point it's a crap shoot, as either of your scenarios can work, or with something in the middle we could get some from both waves (which could prove better of worse). Gut says RGEM, EURO, GFS are right that all areas in NJ see a pretty uniform 5-8" with some combo of the two....

 

I don't think any area will ' double up' or completely miss on both.

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Here's my call for CT. I have a nervous feeling about this, felt much more confident that the last two storms would over perform and they did. This one just "feels" like an underperformer to me. But that's not using meteorology. So with that said, using all guidance available and meteorology heres what I came up with

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Radar exploding over SE PA. I don't know what any of this really means because I don't recall this showing up on any of the modeling.

 

It means I'm probably coming home to my whole yard underwater....

 

Aside from that I'm not sure.

 

Regarding your point on the timing of the front I think it works out better for anyone from Philly North to have the front delay a bit and allow for the good stuff to come northward even if you lose some initially to taint

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