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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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I just want NYC to get 5" to break 40. It's no guarantee, but it's possible.

 

I'll take the over, but barely.  I think NJWinter is a bit pessimistic here but I'm not much higher - 4-7.

 

Regardless, as I have aged, I have realized that the difference between a 4" event and a 6" event is pretty negligible.  

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Tough call for NYC and the northern suburbs-it all depends on when it goes to snow after the front clears by. My call yesterday was probably too bullish-I'd go with 4-6" in NYC and Long Island, 6" on the beaches, and up to 10" locally south of I-195. My call for 4" up to I-84 might not be too bad if the waves of precip stay there and the cold air arrives faster. 

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Hey guys  the radar looks good for the area , the storm looks pissed off and coming right at us hey you never know lollipops could surprise some folks. The cold air is lurking just a matter of timing and hopefully the trend is our friend.I think a pat on the back for all that scientific reasoning LOL . see ya

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Nws is spot on, 6"-10" is a good call here imo..

 

Here is the p&c forecast

 

  • Rain before 10pm, then sleet between 10pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 23. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • ThursdaySnow. High near 27. North wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
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Here is also some text output from the 12Z Euro:

 

East Islip (close to Islip Airport that is actually in the town of Ronkonoma for geographical reference)

 

post-2882-0-17552200-1425495078_thumb.jp

 

KNYC TEXT

 

post-2882-0-35187300-1425495089_thumb.jp

 

STATEN ISLAND TEXT

 

post-2882-0-19796700-1425495105_thumb.jp

 

Looks like 6-8 on avg between these locales taken verbatim... Change over occurs sometime after 4am and before 7am from what I can tell...

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I'll take the over, but barely.  I think NJWinter is a bit pessimistic here but I'm not much higher - 4-7.

 

Regardless, as I have aged, I have realized that the difference between a 4" event and a 6" event is pretty negligible.  

 

i'll give you that, I am a little pessimistic here, but it just feels like the setup where playing conservative is safer. My main worry is that we seem to be relying more and more on wave #1 up here for tonight, and we will be fighting temps that need to drop from the mid-40s...wave 2 we are battling a low level arctic cold/dry air feed, but if were gonna get help with ratios it will be from that part of the system. Accounting for my pessimism, I think a 3-6" call is perfect for NYC Metro

 

4.3 KNYC would be my call

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I think it's going to snow again anyway after next week

 

I know. NYC has a shot tomorrow since 5" is doable. This would be the first 40" season in NYC with

a DJF positive AO for each month since 1950. We already broke the previous record of 24.5" in 92-93.

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Guest Pamela

Storm is a carbon copy of the one on 1/11/84...right down to the 50 F afternoon that preceded it....a rain to snow event.  4.7" coop @ Westbury...locally 6 inches on the N. Shore. 

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Now casting  and looking at the system she's a locomotive coming right at us , the ohio valley looks good precip shield  is sweet right about now. I don't know much about the models but the nam is usually pretty reliable in this time frame we shall see. P.S to much coffee see ya.

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Guest Pamela

Well, they didn't have fancy computer graphics in those days...but I assure you...that's how it was.  On second glance...those old maps do not look incredibly far removed from what's going on.

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