ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 12z model consensus is 4"-8". This is not tough. People are over-analyzing. We need to get through the 0z suite and then we can make a final forecast. Right now, it's an easy 4"-8" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Heavy rain incoming along I-78. KDIX estimating large area of >0.25" per hour rates expanding and moving East towards CNJ, NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 12z model consensus is 4"-8". This is not tough. People are over-analyzing. We need to get through the 0z suite and then we can make a final forecast. Right now, it's an easy 4"-8" for everyone. For the first time in recorded history I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just want NYC to get 5" to break 40. It's no guarantee, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Where is the front at right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This. Euro is later with the change over now around 6-7am Ray in the PHilly thread said the changover occured around 6z or 1am in trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just want NYC to get 5" to break 40. It's no guarantee, but it's possible. I'll take the over, but barely. I think NJWinter is a bit pessimistic here but I'm not much higher - 4-7. Regardless, as I have aged, I have realized that the difference between a 4" event and a 6" event is pretty negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here is the Total Snowfall EURO MAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 For the first time in recorded history I agree with you All good bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The mid-level jet is screaming and is well to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Tough call for NYC and the northern suburbs-it all depends on when it goes to snow after the front clears by. My call yesterday was probably too bullish-I'd go with 4-6" in NYC and Long Island, 6" on the beaches, and up to 10" locally south of I-195. My call for 4" up to I-84 might not be too bad if the waves of precip stay there and the cold air arrives faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just want NYC to get 5" to break 40. It's no guarantee, but it's possible. I will laugh if the zoo comes in with 4.9" and we get to 39.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here is the Total Snowfall EURO MAP... RUN TOTAL SNOWFALL.JPG Unfortunate we arent KY for this storm . I dont ask for much : I just wanted to see NYC jackpot for ONE storm. Looks like it wont happen this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hey guys the radar looks good for the area , the storm looks pissed off and coming right at us hey you never know lollipops could surprise some folks. The cold air is lurking just a matter of timing and hopefully the trend is our friend.I think a pat on the back for all that scientific reasoning LOL . see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nws is spot on, 6"-10" is a good call here imo.. Here is the p&c forecast Rain before 10pm, then sleet between 10pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. Low around 23. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. ThursdaySnow. High near 27. North wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It may be a rough go at it for awhile, the good news is most people will be sleeping while the mix line tries to move southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here is also some text output from the 12Z Euro: East Islip (close to Islip Airport that is actually in the town of Ronkonoma for geographical reference) KNYC TEXT STATEN ISLAND TEXT Looks like 6-8 on avg between these locales taken verbatim... Change over occurs sometime after 4am and before 7am from what I can tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Changeover in NYC around 07z on the 17z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The moisture feed coming out of the Pacific is very impressive on the water vapor loop. What is the current status of the PNA? Maybe we can get just enough flex of the SE Ridge for a nice winter finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I will laugh if the zoo comes in with 4.9" and we get to 39.9". I think it's going to snow again anyway after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Current surface wetbulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'll take the over, but barely. I think NJWinter is a bit pessimistic here but I'm not much higher - 4-7. Regardless, as I have aged, I have realized that the difference between a 4" event and a 6" event is pretty negligible. i'll give you that, I am a little pessimistic here, but it just feels like the setup where playing conservative is safer. My main worry is that we seem to be relying more and more on wave #1 up here for tonight, and we will be fighting temps that need to drop from the mid-40s...wave 2 we are battling a low level arctic cold/dry air feed, but if were gonna get help with ratios it will be from that part of the system. Accounting for my pessimism, I think a 3-6" call is perfect for NYC Metro 4.3 KNYC would be my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think it's going to snow again anyway after next week I know. NYC has a shot tomorrow since 5" is doable. This would be the first 40" season in NYC with a DJF positive AO for each month since 1950. We already broke the previous record of 24.5" in 92-93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Storm is a carbon copy of the one on 1/11/84...right down to the 50 F afternoon that preceded it....a rain to snow event. 4.7" coop @ Westbury...locally 6 inches on the N. Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the rain today and tonight is going to over-perform based on current radar. What a slug of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Changeover in NYC around 07z on the 17z HRRR Looks like between midnight and 2 am for most of NJ. Should be dumping by daybreak too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now casting and looking at the system she's a locomotive coming right at us , the ohio valley looks good precip shield is sweet right about now. I don't know much about the models but the nam is usually pretty reliable in this time frame we shall see. P.S to much coffee see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Storm is a carbon copy of the one on 1/11/84...right down to the 50 F afternoon that preceded it....a rain to snow event. I don't see that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, they didn't have fancy computer graphics in those days...but I assure you...that's how it was. On second glance...those old maps do not look incredibly far removed from what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like the SREF mean stayed nearly identical for 95% of the area. Just a bit drier for for NW sections (Sullivan County, Western Orange County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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