USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yes. Warning hit for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z EPS mean also has the sharp northern cutoff but it's more towards Upstate NY rather than NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z EPS mean also has the sharp northern cutoff but it's more towards Upstate NY rather than NNJ.Would you classify Rockland as NNJ or heading more upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The eps is nw of the op. Huge hit Just like the GEFS is NW of the GFS ( to red taggers is that generally the case where EPS and GEFS are NW of the OP? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would you classify Rockland as NNJ or heading more upstate? I classify Rockland as the LHV since the Hudson River is the Eastern border. When I say Upstate NY I am referring more to Orange/Sullivan Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EPS, if correct, looks like it could be the biggest one we've seen area wide all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I classify Rockland as the LHV since the Hudson River is the Eastern border. When I say Upstate NY I am referring more to Orange/Sullivan Counties. anything north of van cortland park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 anything north of van cortland park Thats true for many in the 5 boros. Growing up in the BX I remember when going to Cross County was ( going upstate) to shop lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah that's a bunch of BS. Go to Yonkers and then go to Syracuse and tell me that they are anything alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EPS, if correct, looks like it could be the biggest one we've seen area wide all winter Would be great to end season this way. Tempering expectations till tom night tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It appears that the 18z NAM is going to be well South but it's incredibly hard to extrapolate that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, looks like this is just a case of a slower evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nam may be eventually be south of previous runs wrt entrance of the precip, and qpf shield orientation but it won't be "way south." I think its just correcting and de-amping a bit from previous runs. Definitely not discernibly going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 similar temps and precip shield to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If anything it could be considered north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, looks like this is just a case of a slower evolution.I heard it went south some but is it as juiced with qpf, not that it means much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hard to believe the last double digit snowfall March for NYC was 1996. I guess we needed the coldest February since 1934 to put that goal within reach. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is a huge hit for the interior. 700mb temps are +2C to +4C by hr 66 within 40 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM is a huge hit for the interior. 700mb temps are +2C to +4C by hr 66 within 40 miles of the coast.That's a really good sign at this point, considering the trends this winter and the model that is showing that. It also doesn't seem to hammer most of Kentucky like the majority of models show. So in general, the rain/snow line and precip shield is well to the north of any other model. I don't think that will happen, but it's better than shifting south. I'm liking this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, looks like this is just a case of a slower evolution. Looks north of 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 850mb freezing line also makes it very close to NYC at hour 60 before sinking back to the South. Looks like a relatively poor temperature profile for snow on the coast. SV maps not showing much of anything for the greater NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Over 2" LE through the end of the run for Southern areas. NYC is about 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, looks like the 6 inch amounts run from about Susex and eastward towards south central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The taint line runs all the way up to Rt. 94 in extreme NNJ and Orange County. For those that don't know where that is, find the extreme northern tip of NJ and then draw a line due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NW bias in play on the Nam. Plus it's a garbage model beyond 36-48 hours. You're much better off going with the Gfs/Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Being that I don't know what I'm more worried about, supression or going too far north is a good sign at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The taint line runs all the way up to Rt. 94 in extreme NNJ and Orange County. For those that don't know where that is, find the extreme northern tip of NJ and then draw a line due East. Control your giddiness for your neck of the woods man , Since when do we take NAM temp profiles seriously? Especially 60 hours out? Key take away is a juiced system & its not getting missing us to the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 850s and 925s are both south of Sussex cnty by hour 60-63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Being that I don't know what I'm more worried about, supression or going too far north is a good sign at this point...Imo the least of our worries is too far north, if anything, it gets compressed and suppressed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Control your giddiness for your neck of the woods man , Since when do we take NAM temp profiles seriously? Especially 60 hours out? Key take away is a juiced system & its not getting missing us to the south! Huh? I live well South of there. I'm in the same boat as NYC with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.