Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 euro is 4-6 inches with 6-8 central and southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 euro is 4-6 inches with 6-8 central and southern nj Sounds like NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Snow doesn't shut off until Thursday night. 4-6" from High Point NJ, South, 2-4" all the way up to the CT/MA border, 6-8" near Philly. WSW warnings will go up across metro area (where they rnt now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This looks good, except I would take the 4-6" range and move it all the way up to High Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wait for the PBP to finish before darting questions and reactions out. This cuts down on the clutter and contradictory posts about how the run is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Recapping 12z KNYC . UKIE 8 PLUS GEM 6 -8 GEFS 6 -8 RGEM 6-8 EURO 6 Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought . ENJOY , Great turn around from bridge jumping NAM this AM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Recapping 12z KNYC . UKIE 8 PLUS GEM 6 -8 GEFS 6 -8 RGEM 6-8 EURO 6 Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought . ENJOY , Great turn around from bridge jumping NAM this AM . maybe a storm to make all areas happy for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The higher res WxBell maps show 3-7" from N to S across the area with the south shore of LI and CNJ seeing the most. If you bump up the ratios to 15:1 it's more like 5-10". 12:1 average is probably likely, so we go 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Top is last nights 00z Bottom is 12z Precip was cut drastically for the NW areas.. Not sure what people are talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 and which model is this?? Top is last nights 00zBottom is 12zPrecip was cut drastically for the NW areas.. Not sure what people are talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 and which model is this?? The euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Top is last nights 00z Bottom is 12z Precip was cut drastically for the NW areas.. Not sure what people are talking about lol Does the 00z map include precip from last nights storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Recapping 12z KNYC . UKIE 8 PLUS GEM 6 -8 GEFS 6 -8 RGEM 6-8 EURO 6 Ratio`s will be good NW so the gradient may not be as tight as we once thought . ENJOY , Great turn around from bridge jumping NAM this AM . You can't recap without including all of the major models - where's the GFS and NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Does the 00z map include precip from last nights storm? of course it does. Precip not cut down. Post fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Top is last nights 00z Bottom is 12z Precip was cut drastically for the NW areas.. Not sure what people are talking about lol I thought we weren't allowed to post Euro from WxBell? And your first map has all the rain with it. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You can't recap without including all of the major models - where's the GFS and NAM? Not sure if the GFS OP can be tossed but the GEFS have been consistently north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Guys. I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer. But...many people on here are doing the same thing every storm. We are essentially throwing out the bottom half of the models that are giving us the least snow ( whichever those are for that particular storm), and then choosing the top range of forecasts on the models with the most snow. 90% of storms will underperform what this " forum" projects with this method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I thought we weren't allowed to post Euro from WxBell? And your first map has all the rain with it. Ugh. It doesn't matter if it has the rain accounted or not.. I'm referring to the north and west areas specifically.... I'm not referring to the city or anywhere else so everyone can just chill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It doesn't matter if it has the rain accounted or not.. I'm referring to the north and west areas specifically.... I'm not referring to the city or anywhere else so everyone can just chill lol It does matter, if the 0z run had last nights rain included, its not an equal comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why was my post deleted for saying the nam and gfs were left out...do these models not exist because I see them hugged all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why was my post deleted for saying the nam and gfs were left out...do these models not exist because I see them hugged all the time Was unintentional, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why was my post deleted for saying the nam and gfs were left out...do these models not exist because I see them hugged all the time The GFS ensembles were included , which should tell you that the OP may be missing something . When it`s own ensembles disagree with the OP and are further N and match the rest of the guidance you include it . The NAM is alone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm currently under a WSW in my area. Will be interesting to see which way NWS goes. Guess I'll found out in a couple of hours if Its a WSW or WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 People need to be careful with the ratio talk in my opinion. Lets call it even with the fact that snow is coming in after rain and that could initially hurt accumulations. I think assuming 10 to 1 is safest bet? Based on the collection of 12z data, I think I'd put the city proper in the 3-5 category, which is better than my pessimistic 3" call from a couple hours ago. Anyone expecting 6-8" in NYC is setting themselves up for dissapointment in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Without moving too much with the ups and downs and ups that seem to occur over just a 12 hour period, I'm still sticking with the same 4-7" from a day ago. 4-7" for the NYC/NENJ/LI areas, and 7-10" as you head south into CNJ/parts of SNJ....looking good still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Turned out milder than forecast currently 46F. Don't know if that means anything but perhaps the cold push will be slower than forecast. Based on what I've seen I think 2-4" is a good call for the city with a bit higher amounts in C/S NJ. A nice little event to pad our stats as we end the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 People need to be careful with the ratio talk in my opinion. Lets call it even with the fact that snow is coming in after rain and that could initially hurt accumulations. I think assuming 10 to 1 is safest bet? Based on the collection of 12z data, I think I'd put the city proper in the 3-5 category, which is better than my pessimistic 3" call from a couple hours ago. Pretty reasonable. 8" would be a coup for NYC. I personally see about 3-5". It could be more if best forcing ends up 30-50 miles north. I think 2" is low benchmark for NYC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 People need to be careful with the ratio talk in my opinion. Lets call it even with the fact that snow is coming in after rain and that could initially hurt accumulations. I think assuming 10 to 1 is safest bet? Based on the collection of 12z data, I think I'd put the city proper in the 3-5 category, which is better than my pessimistic 3" call from a couple hours ago. This. Euro is later with the change over now around 6-7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Without moving too much with the ups and downs and ups that seem to occur over just a 12 hour period, I'm still sticking with the same 4-7" from a day ago. 4-7" for the NYC/NENJ/LI areas, and 7-10" as you head south into CNJ/parts of SNJ....looking good still Agreed. The two keys to the forecast is if that second wave bumps north more, and how fast we changeover tonight. High bust potential either way. With this winter, what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Turned out milder than forecast currently 46F. Don't know if that means anything but perhaps the cold push will be slower than forecast. Based on what I've seen I think 2-4" is a good call for the city with a bit higher amounts in C/S NJ. A nice little event to pad our stats as we end the season. Means practically nothing that we are at 46. We'll get the front and when we do, we'll drop. Many times right before fronts, warming will be higher than forecast do to the southerly flow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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