forkyfork Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the +AO has been brutal on the models this year. remember when the euro had the right idea 7 days out with almost every storm in 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GGEM looks to be 5 inches for the metro...the ukie even more...with the GFS at 2-5...the ukie looks similar to the euro 00z last night from this map, maybe a little less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwedMiddlesex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What's thoughts for Monmouth county? Any ideas love to hear some thoughts. Nobody ever talks about down here always NYC an nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good overall trends today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If you look at where most models, even the northern outliers are initialising.. Current Radar is def North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there. thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no? Maybe this belongs in the vendor thread, but I was happy to see that Lee went with 4-8" for the NYC metro and 6-10" for Central Jersey, basically ignoring whatever model projection he was showing. Seems odd to even show the model, then - why show so little precip on a model and then say it's likely to move north and ignore the model output and go with 4-8"? I usually like Lee, but he blew this one badly. Interesting that people are now bringing up the RPM - had some interesting discussion about this last night and a few posters said Channel 7 uses the RPM for their future cast, which was showing essentially no snow at all south of about a Lambertville to SI line. And USCGRS said that producers "made" them show the futurecast even if the mets, like Lee, thought it was crap - and he did, since he still predicted 4-8" for most last night. And now it's north? WTF is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What's thoughts for Monmouth county? Any ideas love to hear some thoughts. Nobody ever talks about down here always NYC an nnjThe Philly subforum covers coastal NJ more if not mistaken. Anyway, looks like 6" plus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting that people are now bringing up the RPM - had some interesting discussion about this last night and a few posters said Channel 7 uses the RPM for their future cast, which was showing essentially no snow at all south of about a Lambertville to SI line. And USCGRS said that producers "made" them show the futurecast even if the mets, like Lee, thought it was crap - and he did, since he still predicted 4-8" for most last night. And now it's north? WTF is going on?The model can shift north and vary wildly run to run, and one of these variations may be correct or close to the general consensus, it doesn't make it a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Middlesex county. Oh great that would be me then at my new house. Less shoveling for me to do at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The model can shift north and vary wildly run to run, and one of these variations may be correct or close to the general consensus, it doesn't make it a good model. Exactly. But, I bet a lot of TV mets love it when it actually shows consensus, that way they can show it and it jives with what they are talking about. Instead of showing it and then explaining why its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RPMOnly shows 2-4 inches for most people. Sad model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The model can shift north and vary wildly run to run, and one of these variations may be correct or close to the general consensus, it doesn't make it a good model. Best run ever. http://www.businessinsider.com/nemo-nyc-storm-predictions-vary-wildly-2013-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Only shows 2-4 inches for most people. Sad model I know. I didn't say it was "good" just said that it jumped north, which it did. Ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good north trends today thus far. We have a ways to go in order for something more substantial, but at least its a start. A ways to go? This starts in less than 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro coming out. Gonna be an interesting run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would say that the RPM is about as good as the CRAS but i'm not sure which model I would be offending more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is North. Not a huge bump, but a bump, and more robust with the precip. (First Wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is North. Not a huge bump, but a bump, and more robust with the precip.How far out are you? Im only seeing to HR 24 at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Second Wave looks further South so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is North. Not a huge bump, but a bump, and more robust with the precip. (First Wave) And..when you say north..are you comparing it to the previous EURO run?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is a slight tick South with the second wave, but still a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro Hour 30 is great right up I95 Hour 33 - GREAT right along I95 NW guys your ratios are going to be good with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is a slight tick South with the second wave, but still a solid hit. This…euro still looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow at the euro. Two waves hit the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This…euro still looks solidIt looks great!!! Over .50 for you from wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 euro seems to be the most consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would have personally liked to see the second wave move North but we have time with that one. Still moderate precip makes it up to NYC and light snow well North into the Albany CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Snow doesn't shut off until Thursday night. 4-6" from High Point NJ, South, 2-4" all the way up to the CT/MA border, 6-8" near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.