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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely.

I agree. The hi-res models might pick up on that idea later on today and this evening. Its almost nowcast time folks. Start to look at radars, latest upper air maps, and water vapor loops.

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High res GFS snowmap agrees with a general screw zone near the city

 

gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

Your "screwzone" is downsloping off the Hudson Highlands (its western edge corresponds exactly with the mountain front).  I assure you that has a 0.0% chance of verifying, as it's never verifying in any storm that I've observed or reviewed records for.  It probably is an artifact of the DEM used in the model.

 

Can't black box models, folks.

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Your "screwzone" is downsloping off the Hudson Highlands (its western edge corresponds exactly with the mountain front).  I assure you that has a 0.0% chance of verifying, as it's never verifying in any storm that I've observed or reviewed records for.  It probably is an artifact of the DEM used in the model.

 

Can't black box models, folks.

Except that it takes longer to changever at the coast and then the second wave hits CNJ/SNJ and LI, but whatevs.

 

I think it's too far South anyway.

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As of 11:33 am, the NWS has posted a weenie suicide warning for AmericanWx posters from NYC, LI, North Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, while posters in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are now under a weenie suicide watch.  :>)

 

As I said yesterday I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI).  Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one.  If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote yesterday afternoon.  

 

I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow.  I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195.  And the "blizzard" this year.  Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out.  I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more.  On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242

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I think this one is coming North. I'm cautiously optimistic. 3-6" may end up being too low for a lot of the area.

 

Latest guidance all has it coming north but right now its best to be cautiously optimistic. 

 

Cant complain regardless. 22" snowpack on March 4th & 63" for the season is good enough for me 

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