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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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We really needed the stronger dynamics to come further North and help cool the BL. You're going to be in the mid-30's for most the area when precip begins tonight.

Yes we do, but the column down to 925 is cold after 3/4z, so any moderate or heavy precip will be frozen.

Edit : that's verbatim of course

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Well I'm going to go:

 

1-3" for Sullivan, Ulster and Dutchess Counties. 

2-4" for Orange, Northern Rockland, Northern Westchester and Fairfield Counties

3-5" for Northern Warren, Sussex, Northern Morris, Western Passaic, Northern Bergen, Southern Rockland, Southern Westchester, Northern Nassau and Northern Suffolk Counties.

4-6" for Southern Warren, Southern Morris, Eastern Passaic, Southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Bronx, New York, Queens Counties

5-8" for Hunterdon, Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Union, Northern Monmouth, Richmond, Kings, Southern Nassau and Southern Suffolk Counties.

6-10" for Mercer, Southern Monmouth, Northern Burlington and Northern Ocean Counties.

 

I think I covered the entire NYC metropolitan area.

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I'm not totally convinced that's going to happen and at times recently the Northern edge of the precip shiled has overperformed so I have hopes that things aren't as boring as the NAM would portray.

And it's only one model run, but still. What bothers me is the almost dual-personality of this particular model. Say what you will about the three globals, they've been more consistent for this storm.

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And it's only one model run, but still. What bothers me is the almost dual-personality of this particular model. Say what you will about the three globals, they've been more consistent for this storm.

I personally don't use the GFS inside of 48 hours. The RGEM is the Canadian model of choice inside of 48 hours and the Euro has struggled all Winter.

 

I pretty much use a Euro/RGEM/NAM blend in the 12-48 hr range and then a RGEM/4k NAM/HRRR/RAP blend inside of 12hrs.

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I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_031.png

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I_nw_r1_EST_2015030412_033.png

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A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this.
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A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this.

Even as is, its a good shot, no?

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Us nw folks kept getting told it wasnt trending south just shrunken precip shield up north . Guess what it was trending south .

 

 

There is no such thing as "trending".  Congats for scientific ignorance (something this subforum is famed for), and don't forget to keep the doctors from vaccinating your kids on the way out.

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A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this.

 

50 miles is a lot to ask for inside of 48 hours, especially considering the RGEM is on the northern end of most guidance

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