SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Watch the GFS 12z show a north shift and everyone that talked good about the GFS will go into hiding until next year. I think we'll get at least 4-6 for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We really needed the stronger dynamics to come further North and help cool the BL. You're going to be in the mid-30's for most the area when precip begins tonight.Yes we do, but the column down to 925 is cold after 3/4z, so any moderate or heavy precip will be frozen. Edit : that's verbatim of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I'm going to go: 1-3" for Sullivan, Ulster and Dutchess Counties. 2-4" for Orange, Northern Rockland, Northern Westchester and Fairfield Counties 3-5" for Northern Warren, Sussex, Northern Morris, Western Passaic, Northern Bergen, Southern Rockland, Southern Westchester, Northern Nassau and Northern Suffolk Counties. 4-6" for Southern Warren, Southern Morris, Eastern Passaic, Southern Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Bronx, New York, Queens Counties 5-8" for Hunterdon, Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Union, Northern Monmouth, Richmond, Kings, Southern Nassau and Southern Suffolk Counties. 6-10" for Mercer, Southern Monmouth, Northern Burlington and Northern Ocean Counties. I think I covered the entire NYC metropolitan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like your mercer number. We might barely reach 6 but that still makes you correct anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per the 4k NAM, it will be all over by sunrise if the second system scoots to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow. Very boring. I'm not totally convinced that's going to happen and at times recently the Northern edge of the precip shiled has overperformed so I have hopes that things aren't as boring as the NAM would portray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z RGEM as it comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Per the 4k NAM, it will be all over by sunrise if the second system scoots to the South. In general, it looks like that's happening with the 6Z RGEM. The first wave hits us and then the second wave skirts the area to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm not totally convinced that's going to happen and at times recently the Northern edge of the precip shiled has overperformed so I have hopes that things aren't as boring as the NAM would portray. And it's only one model run, but still. What bothers me is the almost dual-personality of this particular model. Say what you will about the three globals, they've been more consistent for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So the rgem clocks us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM looks like a really good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 And it's only one model run, but still. What bothers me is the almost dual-personality of this particular model. Say what you will about the three globals, they've been more consistent for this storm. I personally don't use the GFS inside of 48 hours. The RGEM is the Canadian model of choice inside of 48 hours and the Euro has struggled all Winter. I pretty much use a Euro/RGEM/NAM blend in the 12-48 hr range and then a RGEM/4k NAM/HRRR/RAP blend inside of 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like RGEM has a lot of precip and a south trend is non-existent...although some wasted on mix/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 All day snow on the RGEM, although heaviest south with the 2nd wave...still nice hit seemingly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this. Even as is, its a good shot, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Us nw folks kept getting told it wasnt trending south just shrunken precip shield up north . Guess what it was trending south . There is no such thing as "trending". Congats for scientific ignorance (something this subforum is famed for), and don't forget to keep the doctors from vaccinating your kids on the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A fifty mile shift north on this model and the whole area gets absolutely crushed. I tend to think there's a good shot at a further north solution. Water vapor, pwats and instability over the south and back towards the central southern us shows that there's a plethora of moisture and energy with this. 50 miles is a lot to ask for inside of 48 hours, especially considering the RGEM is on the northern end of most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's the second wave that we miss out on that would've dropped several more inches. Looks good for south central and southern NJ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WWA wouldve been better than a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even as is, its a good shot, no?Yes I didn't mean that. But a fifty mile shift north and the whole area gets crushed, which I think is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They should have left the watches up longer, there was no reason why they needed to upgrade as quickly as they did. I'm still under a watch up here and rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Numbers for Northern Suffolk and Southern Suffolk are off. I don't see a 3" gradient over 15 miles or less happening. I think 5-7 for most of Suffolk county is a better call. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rgem is really not that bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think thats all she wrote folks.. id aim for about 3" in Newark/NYC, less north, more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rgem is really not that bad: Love the 15-20mm JP over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 FWIW HRRR looks NOTHING like the GFS at the onset... Much further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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