Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Either the gfs will be correct or go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I get that but i would think they would add Manhattan to the warning. All of queens is in the warning and the northern most part of queens actually cuts through the bx into Washington heights. Thats why i find it odd The axis of snow is southwest to northeast on the diagonal...as opposed to west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro mean shows 6-8 inches for NYC Is it north of the op. Or in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z SREF has .50-.75 for the city with no room to spare with less to the north and more towards NJ. What were 21z and 3z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gfs will lead the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z SREF has .50- .75 for Manhattan north. .75-1.00QPF from Brooklyn south and more to the south This is north of the 3z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Definitely north of the 3z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6Z RGEM still looks decent to me as far as the norther extent of the snow. Totals look too light in general though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's a 10-1 ratio map. Back end will see higher ratios potentially around 14 or 15-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6Z RGEM still looks decent to me as far as the norther extent of the snow. Totals look too light in general though. Gives us the same as Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z SREF Plumes LGA : 5.56 inches http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150304&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap JFK :6.36 inches http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150304&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=JFK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9z SREF has .50- .75 for Manhattan north. .75-1.00QPF from Brooklyn south and more to the south This is north of the 3z SREF Yes but that is 24 hour precip back from 0z Friday / 7 PM Thursday...which means it is inclusive of the period from 7 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Thursday....and most of the stuff that falls during the first 6 hours of that interlude would probably not be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes but that is 24 hour precip back from 0z Friday / 7 PM Thursday...which means it is inclusive of the period from 7 PM Wednesday through 7 PM Thursday....and most of the stuff that falls during the first 6 hours of that interlude would probably not be snow. It's still north of 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6Z RGEM still looks decent to me as far as the norther extent of the snow. Totals look too light in general though. That it looks uniform across the area seems to hint to me that the sun may be factored in here...especially as one heads south...unless snow is falling pretty hard and the cloud deck is thick...snow might have trouble piling up between the hours of 10:30 AM & 1:30 PM Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM looks like it's coming North, I always use caution when trying to predict the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The precip shield also looks more expansive and more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 At 04z with moderate precip over western areas, 850's are draped from TTN to NYC with surface well northwest into PA and Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The BL really lags behind the mid-levels here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 In any event the cutoff looks to be near Newburgh this run instead of High Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Surface makes it to about MMU by 08z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Surface finally makes it to the city by 10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Kind of a funky ending, NYC is actually drier while northern areas are wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Second wave is weaker and South, not much precip falls after sunrise from NYC North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's still going after 24 hoursbased on this run ..what is time frame after flip to snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's still going after 24 hours Only for Southern areas, and probably South of NYC. Queesn/Brooklyn/Staten Island just get brushed tomorrow afternoon by the steady precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 based on this run ..what is time frame after flip to snow ?I'd say between 3z and 5z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 based on this run ..what is time frame after flip to snow ? 5AM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What an awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not a good run at all for the whole area. Man these models have been awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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