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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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CRAS hugging of course   :ee:

 

 

 

 

don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there.  

 

 

Well the RPM in-house model that TV mets used has no precip further north than Atlantic City I believe. Seriously.

 

thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no?

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don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there.  

 

 

 

thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no?

 

The RPM is very much like the NAM, it'll hit 1 out of every 10-15 storms, you just never know which one its going to be.

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http://climate.cod.edu/data/mesoanalysis/rap300mb.20150304.02.gif

 

very crude comp for arguments sake--- :ph34r:

 

GFS may ....be overestimating (to strong?)

the Upper Level winds ATM

lets not jump the gun here,a small guidance comp only

but I would keep my eyes on this to see how much water this idea might hold

and how it translates downstream

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there.  

 

 

 

thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no?

I've seen it numerous times where even good mets like Goldberg or Nick Gregory show that "futurecast" model and it doesn't even agree with what their saying.

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Um, the GFS didn't really move. It may have tightened the precip shield again, but that's not a move south to my eyes.

With the reaction in here you would have thought it was a North Carolina storm...

That's what most of the models have been doing and many folks are confusing that as a move south.

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I've seen it numerous times where even good mets like Goldberg or Nick Gregory show that "futurecast" model and it doesn't even agree with what their saying.

 

Yeah definitely. To Lee's credit, he just said the futurecast is likely wrong and he thinks it'll be well to the north when it updates in the morning. He's a good met.

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Guest Pamela

:axe:

 

WG's comment was not at all inaccurate for parts of the area...it was very spot on for certain sections.

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WG's comment was not at all inaccurate for parts of the area...it was very spot on for certain sections.

Agreed. I think it also lends credence to the fact that we've been so spoiled with 6+ storms in recent years that we almost come to expect every threat to trend in that direction. This year was quite the opposite, it happens.

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don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there.  

 

 

 

thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no?

 

 

The RPM is very much like the NAM, it'll hit 1 out of every 10-15 storms, you just never know which one its going to be.

 

Maybe this belongs in the vendor thread, but I was happy to see that Lee went with 4-8" for the NYC metro and 6-10" for Central Jersey, basically ignoring whatever model projection he was showing.  Seems odd to even show the model, then - why show so little precip on a model and then say it's likely to move north and ignore the model output and go with 4-8"?  I usually like Lee, but he blew this one badly.  

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Maybe this belongs in the vendor thread, but I was happy to see that Lee went with 4-8" for the NYC metro and 6-10" for Central Jersey, basically ignoring whatever model projection he was showing.  Seems odd to even show the model, then - why show so little precip on a model and then say it's likely to move north and ignore the model output and go with 4-8"?  I usually like Lee, but he blew this one badly.  

He didn't blow it, because he explained that the futurecast was likely wrong. I believe they're required to show that futurecast.

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