RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 CRAS hugging of course don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there. Well the RPM in-house model that TV mets used has no precip further north than Atlantic City I believe. Seriously. thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Um, the GFS didn't really move. It may have tightened the precip shield again, but that's not a move south to my eyes. With the reaction in here you would have thought it was a North Carolina storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there. thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no? The RPM is very much like the NAM, it'll hit 1 out of every 10-15 storms, you just never know which one its going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/mesoanalysis/rap300mb.20150304.02.gif very crude comp for arguments sake--- GFS may ....be overestimating (to strong?) the Upper Level winds ATM lets not jump the gun here,a small guidance comp only but I would keep my eyes on this to see how much water this idea might hold and how it translates downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Joe Cioffi actually argues it was a touch back north....just tighter gradient up north from 18z. Said this on his fb page (mods feel free to move this to vendor but thought it also applied to analysis of 00z gfs) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there. thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no? I've seen it numerous times where even good mets like Goldberg or Nick Gregory show that "futurecast" model and it doesn't even agree with what their saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Um, the GFS didn't really move. It may have tightened the precip shield again, but that's not a move south to my eyes. With the reaction in here you would have thought it was a North Carolina storm... That's what most of the models have been doing and many folks are confusing that as a move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've seen it numerous times where even good mets like Goldberg or Nick Gregory show that "futurecast" model and it doesn't even agree with what their saying. Yeah definitely. To Lee's credit, he just said the futurecast is likely wrong and he thinks it'll be well to the north when it updates in the morning. He's a good met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just a small reminder of the WPC cast for 8" earlier today lets see what the update holds in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's what most of the models have been doing and many folks are confusing that as a move south. It's a move south on the northern periphery which had moderate QPF before and now has very little. The question is where that northern edge sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS looks terrible. I think our best bet is to follow the rgem at this time and use the 12z nam tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem? Dont even bother with it, it should be the same or similar to the RGEM, once inside 48 the GGEM is not generally of use unless its 180 degrees in disagreement with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WG's comment was not at all inaccurate for parts of the area...it was very spot on for certain sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WG's comment was not at all inaccurate for parts of the area...it was very spot on for certain sections. Agreed. I think it also lends credence to the fact that we've been so spoiled with 6+ storms in recent years that we almost come to expect every threat to trend in that direction. This year was quite the opposite, it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 don't think so - Lee Goldberg just showed the same precip loop with very little snow (I mean, like close to no snow, not the 3-4" on the CRAS, by my eyeballs) shown from maybe Lambertville to Perth Amboy and points N of there. thought those short term models were useless outside of about 18 hours, no? The RPM is very much like the NAM, it'll hit 1 out of every 10-15 storms, you just never know which one its going to be. Maybe this belongs in the vendor thread, but I was happy to see that Lee went with 4-8" for the NYC metro and 6-10" for Central Jersey, basically ignoring whatever model projection he was showing. Seems odd to even show the model, then - why show so little precip on a model and then say it's likely to move north and ignore the model output and go with 4-8"? I usually like Lee, but he blew this one badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GGEM and Ukie are 3-6 for NYC. Looks like all of the models are 3-6 now except the Nam. Lets wait for the Euro later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GGEM and Ukie are 3-6 for NYC. Looks like all of the models are 3-6 now except the Nam. Lets wait for the Euro later. UKMET is .60" of precip as snow. That's 5"-7". Ggem is more then 3"-6" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe this belongs in the vendor thread, but I was happy to see that Lee went with 4-8" for the NYC metro and 6-10" for Central Jersey, basically ignoring whatever model projection he was showing. Seems odd to even show the model, then - why show so little precip on a model and then say it's likely to move north and ignore the model output and go with 4-8"? I usually like Lee, but he blew this one badly. He didn't blow it, because he explained that the futurecast was likely wrong. I believe they're required to show that futurecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GGEM and Ukie are 3-6 for NYC. Looks like all of the models are 3-6 now except the Nam. Lets wait for the Euro later. That's still solid look what happened the last march. Would you like to see 12"+ become nothing or 6-8" become 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's still solid look what happened the last march. Would you like to see 12"+ become nothing or 6-8" become 3-6"? Ukmet is not 3"-6". Anthony is wrong. It's actually better then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukmet is not 3"-6". Anthony is wrong. It's actually better then the NAM. Do you have that accumulation map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukmet from hours 24-60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKMET is .60" of precip as snow. That's 5"-7". Ggem is more then 3"-6" as well. You're right.....I think 4-7" is still a safe bet at this point.....Upton's call of 4-8" is just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukmet from hours 24-60: A little of that is rain but yea it's definitely solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You're right..... ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425445321.348507.jpg Ggem is atleast 6 inches area wide... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GEFS Why does its op keep going so much further south!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Why does its op keep going so much further south!! It's not. It's just tightening the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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