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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Have been away from the internet for hours and just was watching News12NJ and they ran a simulated precip loop that looked to have little to no snow at all north of about a Lambertville to Staten Island line, with a voice over that this would be a South Jersey/Philly storm.  Any idea what model they're hugging?  Nobody else seems to be saying such things on this thread (sure less to the north of NYC, but not a miss for NYC completely, as implied by their loop).  I don't typically put much stock in those folks, but was curious.  

CRAS hugging of course   :ee:

 

cras45na_p60_060l.gif

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Can we?

 

Sure.  It's actually been pretty awful since "winning" the blizzard bust/battle.  I think I saw SnowGoose allude to it earlier.  And somebody else posted the verification scores and the GFS has gone back to being well behind the globals, even in the 3 or 5 days windows.

 

If it proves correct, I'll eat crow.  

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Sure.  It's actually been pretty awful since "winning" the blizzard bust/battle.  I think I saw SnowGoose allude to it earlier.  And somebody else posted the verification scores and the GFS has gone back to being well behind the globals, even in the 3 or 5 days windows.

 

If it proves correct, I'll eat crow.

I like your optimism. And DM's.

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Can we?

If ensembles are NW, I'd take it with a grain of salt, otherwise, imo, no we cannot. But dynamics appear stronger, favoring a northern solution. Also, rgem is pretty deadly in this range. But we can't toss just yet imo.
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Need we remind everyone that the GFS has been downright awful on the last 5 or 6 storms we've had. It even had tonight's event wrong while it was happening. Why people cliff jump based on it is mind boggling to me.

 

Don't weigh the RGEM heaviest at your own peril, and it has tons of support.

*Something* is making the private forecasting agencies downgrade their snow totals. Maybe they'll bump them again after the Euro comes in . . .

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Even the worst model has the .50 line north of me, I think I'm a lock for 4+ but it's starting to look very shaky for NW areas, hopefully the rest of the 0Z suite comes in better.

It's starting to look like there will be a very sharp northern gradient, but I still like the city and Long Island's chances for 6"+. If other models tonight shift south, I'd be in nail-biting mode. North of the city, especially from I-84 north, this looks to be slipping away.

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I'd weight the RGEM to the GFS 10:1. GFS has been terrible this winter, and that valentines day storm where it threw the CCB way back into CT and NY was pathetic. By far the worst model IMO this winter. I wouldn't trust anything it says good or bad.

 

On the other hand, while not perfect, the RGEM has done much better this winter than the GFS and has nailed a few storms. I really don't think that the GFS "won" the blizzard of 2015, it may have with the track but it did terrible where it did snow like eastern CT, LI, RI, MA..it had no where near those 20-35" amounts they got.

 

There was a southern storm on a Monday i recall a couple of weeks ago where the RGEM and most models were too far south with the precip completely shutting out CT and we ended up getting an inch or so halfway up the state.

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It's starting to look like there will be a very sharp northern gradient, but I still like the city and Long Island's chances for 6"+. If other models tonight shift south, I'd be in nail-biting mode. North of the city, especially from I-84 north, this looks to be slipping away.

It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top

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It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top

:axe:

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It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top

 

Someone will see close to 15 inches with this, it just is not going to be north of 78

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