donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 0z RGEM (just the 2nd system): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM delivers the goods to most. Keep in mind ratios in the latter part of the storm do indeed look to be better than 10-1. Could be some nice surprises with the dumping that happens in the 6-8 hour window Thursday morning where accumulations can really rack up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Rgem 5-8" from high point to cape may.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ugh don't even look at the gfs Way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have been away from the internet for hours and just was watching News12NJ and they ran a simulated precip loop that looked to have little to no snow at all north of about a Lambertville to Staten Island line, with a voice over that this would be a South Jersey/Philly storm. Any idea what model they're hugging? Nobody else seems to be saying such things on this thread (sure less to the north of NYC, but not a miss for NYC completely, as implied by their loop). I don't typically put much stock in those folks, but was curious. CRAS hugging of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dang sweet find there V thank ya very much Dynamics in the OK Pan Handle a nice thingy to watch also... Lifted it from the MA forum, Thanks though this one has the chance to over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well the RPM in-house model that TV mets used has no precip further north than Atlantic City I believe. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ugh don't even look at the gfs Way south Once again no agreement within 36 hrs of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ugh don't even look at the gfs Way south We Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS isn't completely horrible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We Toss. Can we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM and NAM are in pretty good agreement besides the sharper cutoff of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM and NAM are in pretty good agreement besides the sharper cutoff of the NAM Would be nice if the GFS agreed, too. What are the RGEM and NAM seeing that the GFS isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's been a fun winter w/o happens happens. Ready for spring, this is most likely our last storm. Warmer temps next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even the worst model has the .50 line north of me, I think I'm a lock for 4+ but it's starting to look very shaky for NW areas, hopefully the rest of the 0Z suite comes in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can we? Sure. It's actually been pretty awful since "winning" the blizzard bust/battle. I think I saw SnowGoose allude to it earlier. And somebody else posted the verification scores and the GFS has gone back to being well behind the globals, even in the 3 or 5 days windows. If it proves correct, I'll eat crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sure. It's actually been pretty awful since "winning" the blizzard bust/battle. I think I saw SnowGoose allude to it earlier. And somebody else posted the verification scores and the GFS has gone back to being well behind the globals, even in the 3 or 5 days windows. If it proves correct, I'll eat crow. I like your optimism. And DM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Need we remind everyone that the GFS has been downright awful on the last 5 or 6 storms we've had. It even had tonight's event wrong while it was happening. Why people cliff jump based on it is mind boggling to me. Don't weigh the RGEM heaviest at your own peril, and it has tons of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is leading the way. It is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can we?If ensembles are NW, I'd take it with a grain of salt, otherwise, imo, no we cannot. But dynamics appear stronger, favoring a northern solution. Also, rgem is pretty deadly in this range. But we can't toss just yet imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is still south. Looks like 3-6 for NYC with more to the south. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like your optimism. And DM's. I'm not optimistic. I just don't trust the GFS overall. Whatever happens, happens. We're not in a bad spot. We might not get jackpotted, but we're seeing snow late Wed. night into Thurs. morning. The question is how much really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Need we remind everyone that the GFS has been downright awful on the last 5 or 6 storms we've had. It even had tonight's event wrong while it was happening. Why people cliff jump based on it is mind boggling to me. Don't weigh the RGEM heaviest at your own peril, and it has tons of support. *Something* is making the private forecasting agencies downgrade their snow totals. Maybe they'll bump them again after the Euro comes in . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Even the worst model has the .50 line north of me, I think I'm a lock for 4+ but it's starting to look very shaky for NW areas, hopefully the rest of the 0Z suite comes in better. It's starting to look like there will be a very sharp northern gradient, but I still like the city and Long Island's chances for 6"+. If other models tonight shift south, I'd be in nail-biting mode. North of the city, especially from I-84 north, this looks to be slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'd weight the RGEM to the GFS 10:1. GFS has been terrible this winter, and that valentines day storm where it threw the CCB way back into CT and NY was pathetic. By far the worst model IMO this winter. I wouldn't trust anything it says good or bad. On the other hand, while not perfect, the RGEM has done much better this winter than the GFS and has nailed a few storms. I really don't think that the GFS "won" the blizzard of 2015, it may have with the track but it did terrible where it did snow like eastern CT, LI, RI, MA..it had no where near those 20-35" amounts they got. There was a southern storm on a Monday i recall a couple of weeks ago where the RGEM and most models were too far south with the precip completely shutting out CT and we ended up getting an inch or so halfway up the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's starting to look like there will be a very sharp northern gradient, but I still like the city and Long Island's chances for 6"+. If other models tonight shift south, I'd be in nail-biting mode. North of the city, especially from I-84 north, this looks to be slipping away. It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It feels like these cookie cutter storms are all predictable now.....they start off with the potential for 6-10".....turns to 6" possible scenario, and little by little it turns to a 4-6" storm and end up with usually 3" or so.....a couple times around 5". It's almost as if they just can't manage to go against the grain no matter what the setup. Very interesting.....although they are great for adding onto our snow totals which, when combined with the cold, make for a great winter.....only lacking a blockbuster storm for us all to put it over the top Someone will see close to 15 inches with this, it just is not going to be north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z run and actually better for parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.