Violentweatherfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Max Po FTW I am all in...... min baseline http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Yo T, check out the water vaper loop....right up your alley. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like thetrials/4dvar will miss out on this one....better luck next year Looks like the NAM jackpots you here!!.....although jackpotting on the NAM is like receiving a call from telling you that you won an all expenses paid trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a really bullish prob for >8" 27-29% for here? I'd put greater at 8 at about 5% right now. I suspect these totals will get a major trim job on the next shift along with the probs and max/mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 and the trolling continues deleted that post because it was poorly expressive of my thoughts... but I fully stand by my reply to blizzard on gfs anyway, will just observe from here on out, my call below is on record. --- So, we basically agree fully based on what I posted several minutes before this post (See below). BUT another 10-20 mile shift from the NAMS depiction (which is all I was saying) and we're talking about a very different story for the NYC area.. I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling? 6-12 phill/cnj/snj if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous. my calls arent off verbatim model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wait..what is this about waves...will there be a break in the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 These events always have big cutoffs, see 2/2/96 which was a similar idea, hardly anything fell in EPA yet parts of SRN NJ had 18 inches Saw the map on page 743 of the Kocin book...what a delightful gradient that turned NE to include LI & the Cape. Another Iron Rule of Forecasting: If central NJ gets big snows, it is very rare for Long Island to miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Max Po FTW I am all in...... min baseline http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png I liked 8 all day and 12 S and W , I am going to hang with that .4 at the CT coast line , so there is a gradient to this on the NAM . The hope is it expands N a bit , One thing to note Hours 30 - 36 you are prob snowing at a 10 to 1 ratio but by hour 39 850`s have crashed to -14 and by hour 51 its -18 at 850 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Absolute ownage on the High-Res NAM for CNJ. Crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah it was hard to tell just from the NCEP map but NYC should be around 6 still.. hopefully we don't see any further shifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM about 5 miles further south. So basically no change, an interesting thing is that the last wave is stronger, I like to see how the RGEM and GFS handles this last wave. Currently the models predict a strong sheering vort max, I am thinking that the NAM is sheering it a little less so last wave is stronger. if this trend continues then there is a slim possibility that the precipitation max may start a north trend. This slim possibility and it will not really be known until tomorrow Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM about 5 miles further south. So basically no change, an interesting thing is that the last wave is stronger, I like to see how the RGEM and GFS handles this last wave. Currently the models predict a strong sheering vort max, I am thinking that the NAM is sheering it a little less so last wave is stronger. if this trend continues then there is a slim possibility that the precipitation max may start a north trend. This slim possibility and it will not really be known until tomorrow Z run. looked further than a 5 mile shift up this way. we cant spare anymore 5 mile shifts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM is way further north than at 18Z, I don't have access to totals but it looks like for now the City people at least can breath a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now that isn't half bad for NYC and LI...and south. Looks like 6 to 10 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Compare the 18z snow map to the 0z snow map. Much more than a 5 mile shift. Have no idea where that is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Those 2 maps show no shift at all. Just a shrinking of the northern cutoff. NYC is identical on both maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Compare the 18z snow map to the 0z snow map. Much more than a 5 mile shift. Have no idea where that is coming from. That's just the northern precip being squashed. Shrinking of the QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's just the northern precip being squashed. Shrinking of the QPF field. The difference seems negligible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So South Jersey going from bupkis to 8+" isn't a move south? Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It looks like Rgem has that second wave pulse that the Nam had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Model Label Junk... marker should be an H at 1031mb that's what I figured lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My thinking for this upcoming snowstorm... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM is a nice hit for the area. 4+ for most. 6+ for nyc south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm assuming none of you have seen the 00z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So South Jersey going from bupkis to 8+" isn't a move south? Okay. I see your point. If I lived Buena, NJ, I'd be excited too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yo T, check out the water vaper loop....right up your alley. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ Dang sweet find there V thank ya very much Dynamics in the OK Pan Handle a nice thingy to watch also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lines from the DisneyMovie frozen come to mind right about now: LET IT SNOW! LET IT SNOW! Oh wait sorry that's let it go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm assuming none of you have seen the 00z RGEM... What a funky looking snow total map on the RGEM. The snowfall radar map really does look like waves and ripples coming from the SW.....interesting storm this will be : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The RGEM also has small area of 6+ inches pretty close to Yanksfan, spreading the love. Edit; Ninja'd by Wintergrasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Big uptick from the rgem 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have been away from the internet for hours and just was watching News12NJ and they ran a simulated precip loop that looked to have little to no snow at all north of about a Lambertville to Staten Island line, with a voice over that this would be a South Jersey/Philly storm. Any idea what model they're hugging? Nobody else seems to be saying such things on this thread (sure less to the north of NYC, but not a miss for NYC completely, as implied by their loop). I don't typically put much stock in those folks, but was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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