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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Guest Pamela

Axis of heaviest precip between Sandy Hook, NJ & Atlantic City. 

 

It looks like it would go to snow at NYC's latitude around hour 30 / 1 AM. 

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Stop trolling.

I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling?

 

6-12 phill/cnj/snj 

 

if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous.

 

my calls arent off verbatim model outputs.

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NAM: Great hit for the Driscoll bridge on south. NYC proper fine. Anyone north of i84 doesn't look good on this model. Wyoming Valley pa fringe line. Lehigh valley decent. Best 78 on south. Gotta wonder how much is sleet over Philly and south jersey.

 

Looks like around the Philly to AC corridor gets a sleetfest.

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yup, tomorrow NYC will be high and dry

 

 

been looking like that since this AM, this isnt surprising.. for  NYC itself its looking marginal at best - 10 -20 miles south from nams current track and it will be a nuisance at most

 

This thread is unbearable. This stuff needs to go to banter. You would think that this area was snow starved when in all actuality you've done quite well this season. This is a SECS for most of the area; especially NYC south. Since when did 4-7" become a nuisance event?! This run is very good for areas to the south of NYC including CNJ.

 

Anyway, I think that we have a pretty great model consensus at this range, it seems that the models are handling this system quite well. I'm liking the EURO/GFS blend, with the NAM picking up on banding. Should be a good storm.

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Guest Pamela

NAM is a major snowstorm for central & southern NJ...though somewhat dependent on a second wave or batch of snow to move through on Thursday afternoon.  NYC & LI also see very significant snow...probably close to 1.0 L.E. after hour 30. 

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This thread is unbearable. This stuff needs to go to banter. You would think that this area was snow starved when in all actuality you've done quite well this season. This is a SECS for most of the area; especially NYC south. Since when did 4-7" become a nuisance event?! This run is very good for areas to the south of NYC including CNJ.

 

Anyway, I think that we have a pretty great model consensus at this range, it seems that the models are handling this system quite well. I'm liking the EURO/GFS blend, with the NAM picking up on banding. Should be a good storm.

So, we basically agree fully based on what I posted several minutes before this post (See below). BUT another 10-20 mile shift from the NAMS depiction (which is all I was saying) and we're talking about a very different story for the NYC area..

 

I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling?

 

6-12 phill/cnj/snj 

 

if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous.

 

my calls arent off verbatim model outputs. 

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The way the NAM looks, with waves of precipitation coming through, makes me feel that it still has the potential to bring one of these waves to shore (hah, pats my back).....a slight shift north with one of these waves could significantly up our snowfall numbers. The NAM doesn't bad by any means, although it is not improved from its last run. 4-7" still looks good for most of us

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Guest Pamela

I think a lot of people didn't look at the later panels. Adds another 1-3in later in the day.

 

If the other models look pretty good...since we are practically within 24...I think you should see some very good snows in the area Thursday. 

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We might be underestimating the SE ridging a bit and that could make all the difference. We're in a -PNA/+AO regime that favors stronger ridging, which is a significant departure from the +PNA pattern we've been seeing.

If this wasn't the case then I would think the high would be able to press to the east easily thus suppressing these waves further.

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