Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They usually suck no matter what. Just stating it for the bridge jumpers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's to a great night of model runs ahead...and if this is one of the last calm nights before a snowstorm in less than 48 hours...I had fun with you all doing it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/SREFNE24Precip21051.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Latest SREF looks essentially unchanged from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Latest SREF looks essentially unchanged from the previous run. Yep. I checked the time on the maps to make sure I wasn't looking at an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The SREFs also have a known north and wet bias Honestly I have not seem or read anything positive from you since you have joined these boards... Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Who cares what the srefs say lol... If the srefs were accurate I'd be looking at 100+" seasonal total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF roundup for its last 4 runs (the mean on plumes) : 5", then 10", then 7.5", now 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF roundup for its last 4 runs (the mean on plumes) : 5", then 10", then 7.5", now 6" EWR I'm assuming? Fits well with the 4-8 expectation Upton has posted. Split the middle for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 EWR I'm assuming? Fits well with the 4-8 expectation Upton has posted. Split the middle for now. Yeah EWR.....similar numbers for surrounding areas though. To be honest, the snow numbers on the SREFs aren't that much higher headed into C and SNJ.....maybe add on a couple inches. The 4-8" is a good call right now. It does cover what I think would truly be the minimum and maximum, most likely. I think we come in with around 5.5 again (because I don't think it's possible I get a 6 inch storm this year lol). We're about due for a NAM'ing, aren't we ? I'm sure one of its next few runs will be the huge tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 0z NAM @ 24 look pretty much the same as the 18z NAM did @ 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Very early, but nam so far looks no worse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 sim radar at hr 36 shows a sharp cut off with precip in the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Further north than 18z, looks like big hit incoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Further north than 18z, looks like big hit incoming.... I am only out to hr 36, but will take your word that is it further north. I did not see any huge changes so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Significant improvement at 36 vs. old 42, precip more robust and further north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 12z gfs. This is quickly becoming a non event north of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 12z gfs. This is quickly becoming a non event north of nyc.Yes, very sharp cutoff north of i-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 12z gfs. This is quickly becoming a non event north of nyc. Significant improvement at 36 vs. old 42, precip more robust and further north.... Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Significant improvement at 36 vs. old 42, precip more robust and further north.... You say good allsnow says bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It sinks south after hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 12z gfs. This is quickly becoming a non event north of nyc.this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't see the improvements that you do.....looks like it is headed south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Which is it? quickly becoming a non event north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Initially I was expecting 1-2" up here now 1-2 flakes might just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Solid hit for nyc. Really tight gradient to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Still looks like a decent hit for most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't see the improvements that you do.....looks like it is headed south a bit yup, tomorrow NYC will be high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Basically if you live north of the city you're screwed. The city itself should do okay and south of the city does even better. The 4-8" does look like a great call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My bad, was comparing to 18z gfs, looks maybe 10 miles south(noise) of 18z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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