EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 People saying RGEM came north, but it doesn't look that different to me. How far north did it come compared to the previous run? Agreed went south like our storm chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ cut the total down about (1" estimated) from today's mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bernie Rayno believes this has to trend south and the models will follow suit via his latst update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bernie Rayno believes this has to trend south and the models will follow suit via his latst update.Vendor thread please and ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mountain out of a Molehill if you ask me... the system may come thru just a bit slower than modeled-imo nitpicky peanut gallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agreed went south like our storm chances So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ cut the total down about (1" estimated) from today's mess tns.gif Do you know when this model was run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bernie Rayno believes this has to trend south and the models will follow suit via his latst update. Does he explain why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Does he explain why? I am not an expert, so you would have to watch the video for yourself. I am just stating the basics of his video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong. It's better then the 12z run. Further north and more precip. And there's good precip after hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do you know when this model was run? updated every hour sir not a model---it is from the NWS forecast database http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/ maps http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ by the way it has been almost spot on inside of 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong. The heavier bands came further north. Honestly it really doesn't matter. The models are pretty good agreement for once. It's going to snow and accumulate in March. Enjoy guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong. To me it looked like it went north but barely. The northern shield of snow is slightly more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 updated every hour sir not a model---it is from the NWS forecast database http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/ maps http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Find it funny that just as the NWS posts watches, the models fall south. Wonder if they see something we do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs ensembles northwest again of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs ensembles northwest again of opWhy do they keep playing with us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why do they keep playing with us lol Yeah it's getting annoying now, 3 + runs now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good to see that the latest SREF, NAM, and RGEM ticked north. I wouldn't worry about the GFS trending south; its doing the usual hi jinx with its SE bias. I think with the other models shifting north somewhat, that the dreaded south trend has stopped. I firmly believe that the northern confluence is not as strong as the models think. That jet streak means business. It remains to be seen if the models continue to correct north or just stand pat from here on out. Either way a lot of us will see a significant snowfall. Get ready for a nail biting 00Z suite tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gfs ensembles northwest again of op That's a red flag. The ensembles are basically saying that the OP is too far south. I got a hunch that it'll correct north if not by tonight, certainly by 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OPC 48hr surface cast 7:00am EDT Thursday http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrsfc.gif Cropped 1020mb contour Highlighted for Clarity shaded area would be about the estimated max drop south on the surface low track---IMO of course rough sketch guidance only grab that 967mb low for our slower thru the box ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong. 18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north. First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours. Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours. I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OPC 48hr surface cast 7:00am EDT Thursday http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrsfc.gif Cropped 1020mb contour Highlighted for Clarity shaded area would be about the estimated max drop south of the surface low track---IMO of course opc.gif rough sketch guidance only grab that 967mb low for our slower thru the box ideas Looks like a play guide for a football game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north. First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours. Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours. I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip. What's the L by the great lakes?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like a play guide for a football game lol Touch down door man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What's the L by the great lakes?? Model Label Junk... marker should be an H at 1031mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Get ready for a nail biting 00Z suite tonight! And 6z and 12z and 18z and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north. First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours. Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours. I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip. All the rgem did was tighten up the north side of the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sref still look great for. Rt 80 south to 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sref still look great for. Rt 80 south to 195The SREFs also have a known north and wet bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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