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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Agreed went south like our storm chances

 

 

So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong.

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So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong.

It's better then the 12z run. Further north and more precip.

And there's good precip after hour 48.

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So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong.

The heavier bands came further north. Honestly it really doesn't matter. The models are pretty good agreement for once. It's going to snow and accumulate in March. Enjoy guys.

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So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong.

To me it looked like it went north but barely. The northern shield of snow is slightly more expansive. 

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Good to see that the latest SREF, NAM, and RGEM ticked north. I wouldn't worry about the GFS trending south; its doing the usual hi jinx with its SE bias. I think with the other models shifting north somewhat, that the dreaded south trend has stopped. I firmly believe that the northern confluence is not as strong as the models think. That jet streak means business. It remains to be seen if the models continue to correct north or just stand pat from here on out. Either way a lot of us will see a significant snowfall. Get ready for a nail biting 00Z suite tonight! :popcorn:

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So we had some reliable posters say RGEM went north, and even Snowgoose (a met) said 18z run of RGEM looked a bit better. Yet other people are saying it looks the same or south. Can anyone clear up the confusion over RGEM? Would love to see proof that it did indeed go north. To me it looks the same but my eyes are untrained and could be wrong.

 

 

18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north.

 

First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours.

 

Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours.

 

I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip.

post-12274-0-20541900-1425428581_thumb.g

post-12274-0-90939900-1425428590_thumb.g

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OPC 48hr surface cast

7:00am EDT Thursday

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrsfc.gif

 

Cropped 

1020mb contour

Highlighted for Clarity

 

shaded area would be about the estimated

max drop south of the surface low track---IMO of course

 

attachicon.gifopc.gif

 

rough sketch guidance only

grab that  967mb  low  for our slower thru the box ideas

Looks like a play guide for a football game lol

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18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north.

 

First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours.

 

Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours.

 

I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip.

What's the L by the great lakes??

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18Z RGEM looks like it went south to me, not north.

First image is 18Z RGEM valid at 42 hours.

Second image is 12Z RGEM valid at 48 hours.

I think the reason 18Z RGEM "looks" better is because you can see an extra 6 hour total accumulation that you couldn't for 12Z and also the 18Z RGEM goes out to 54 which adds even more precip.

All the rgem did was tighten up the north side of the precip field.

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