Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS South trend Continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't like the south trend. Needs to stopIf 0z continues south, I'd be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs bumps south again. Little snow north of nyc Wow looking at just the 24 hour map.....the precip shield looks nearly 50 miles north of it's 12z run.....I guess it just never comes together later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't like the south trend. Needs to stop Yea I'm still not convinced that the confluence is strong enough to drive this juiced up system down, I'm really hopin after this first wave passes we see a trend North, would like to see some mod catch-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I said last night that if the big precip area gets crushed south that very few people would see heavy snow amounts, maybe a small swath. There will be lots of warm air with this in association with the overrunning moist flow, and too much of a squeeze play between that and the confluence means a smaller heavy snow area. Agree with you - also GFS seems a tick south and less robust - who could have seen this trend continuing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is 3-6" for the entire area for both storms... South Central and Southern NJ are the only ones that see 6+ on GFS...blows if this continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I might receive more from now, than with the second wave. south trend needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This was always the danger but yeah it's not good if you're looking for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18Z GFS is fugly, fringes all of CT even the coast of CT barely sees an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Like I said I'm still not convinced till this first wave passes through.. If models still wanna push this South then, it is what it is.. How many times have seen models not pick up on details like this till 1 Storm or wave exits... 50 miles is very minor in the grand scale of it.. Could still go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't like the south trend. Needs to stop That arctic front will have resistance and will not fly off the coast like the 18z GFS is showing . The 18z RGEM is further N than it was at 12z , that`s what you wanted to see .SLP will not slide that far S E that fast with this in the way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agree with you - also GFS seems a tick south and less robust - who could have seen this trend continuing? must you always toot your own horn every post it's truly annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think that's it for the south trend it'll come back north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agree with you - also GFS seems a tick south and less robust - who could have seen this trend continuing? I am curious , what are you basing this " trend " on ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAM/RGEM north, GFS south of their 12z counterparts, 2/3 ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z NAM/RGEM north, GFS south of their 12z counterparts, 2/3 ain't bad. With the 12z ensemble gfs north I'm suprised the 18z op went south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z goofus is at it again! Some things never change even though the model was supposed to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM and RGEM are better models to use now that they are coming into its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM and RGEM are better models to use now that they are coming into its rangeYes, the NAM will be interesting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes, the NAM will be interesting tonightEveryone has literally been crapping on the nam all year.. Why would we start trusting it now?And anyone that's said the nams done well lately gets attacked immediately and called homer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Again, there's NO evidence that "trend" has any meaning - i.e., a "trend" doesn't increase the odds of that trend being followed with the next model run. It's just random noise that your brains mistakenly identify as signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone has literally been crapping on the nam all year.. Why would we start trusting it now? And anyone that's said the nams done well lately gets attacked immediately and called homer lol Well, if you believe the NAM outside of its range, then yes, you are a fool. But the NAM is solid within its range IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone has literally been crapping on the nam all year.. Why would we start trusting it now? And anyone that's said the nams done well lately gets attacked immediately and called homer lol Also, RGEM has been by far the best short range model this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone has literally been crapping on the nam all year.. Why would we start trusting it now? And anyone that's said the nams done well lately gets attacked immediately and called homer lol Because it's showing a preferred solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well, if you believe the NAM outside of its range, then yes, you are a fool. But the NAM is solid within its range IMONot a single person has taken the nam serious all season within 6 hrs even....now it shows the best solution were all back on board with its 48hr killszoneTrust me it shows the best outcome for me too but as someone that's supported the nam most the season, and got harassed for it, I find it funny everyones coming out of the woodworks now to support it cause it's finally favourable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The upgraded GFS had done well this winter. I don't know why choose the NAM over it. I'll ride the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The upgraded GFS had done well this winter. I don't know why choose the NAM over it. I'll ride the GFS. Its been very bad on the last 4 or 5 storms, it was horrific on the one in the Southeast last week, its had major dryness problems on QPF and been too flat or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not sure we're actually seeing any "trends" but rather seeing the models' outputs fluctuating around a mean solution, which is fairly normal. If the mean doesn't move much, the fluctuations, in theory, should decrease in amplitude (deviation from the mean) as one gets closer to the event, since the uncertainty is decreasing and the amount of time available until the event is decreasing. In theory, lol. I do wish the NWS and other winter weather forecasters would adopt some sort of "cone of uncertainty" for storm tracks, like they have for tropical systems - and you could combine a graphic like that with accumulations in the path of the storm. Would look cool. Somebody make it happen, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not sure we're actually seeing any "trends" but rather seeing the models' outputs fluctuating around a mean solution, which is fairly normal. If the mean doesn't move much, the fluctuations, in theory, should decrease in amplitude (deviation from the mean) as one gets closer to the event, since the uncertainty is decreasing and the amount of time available until the event is decreasing. In theory, lol. I do wish the NWS and other winter weather forecasters would adopt some sort of "cone of uncertainty" for storm tracks, like they have for tropical systems - and you could combine a graphic like that with accumulations in the path of the storm. Would look cool. Somebody make it happen, please. I think they're trying to do something like that, with the "max/min" probabilities. I guess their thinking is that the general public would really only care about the actual accumulation odds rather than the low track, being that the strength of the low and other things play roles in how expansive or tight the precip shield would be. If it was a cone of uncertainty with the low track, as with hurricanes, the public may think that if you are right next to the low, you will get the most snow, as in a "bullseye".....but as long as they include the accumulations with it, it'd be awesome for everyone. Only issue would be that for each model run, there could be wild swings in the cone, more so than tropical cyclones because while the Cyclones may have developed already, the snowy storm systems in many cases will not even have developed, and one fly in the ointment could make or break it, depending on if you enjoy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Also, RGEM has been by far the best short range model this winter People saying RGEM came north, but it doesn't look that different to me. How far north did it come compared to the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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