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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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From the POV of a weather enthusiast, it would be pretty disappointing to see Boston miss the holy grail of snow records by mere inches. Hopefully they can pull it off.

They won't get shut out here, and they have weeks left to get the few more inches they need. Their second biggest snowstorm happened on April 1, 1997. They should break the record, maybe comfortably.
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They won't get shut out here, and they have weeks left to get the few more inches they need. Their second biggest snowstorm happened on April 1, 1997. They should break the record, maybe comfortably.

And what a very interesting Nor Easter around here that was, March 31st raining with sleet ( unexpectdly as it was supposed to be rain) crossed the GW into suddenly HVY sn. stayed 2 hours & saw 3 inches , weather channel changed forcast and said 3-6 inches into NY & NWS I think upped us to 6-10, it would only be snow when rates heavy and would switch to a mix at other times, NW burbs wound up at over 12-14 inches if I remember correctly and BOS got smoked with 27 inches plus!

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The advisory is for today's slop, the watch is for late tomorrow night.

 

Roller Coaster:

 

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MIXES WITH

  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO

  RAIN. THE RAIN...MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO SNOW AND SLEET

  WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND OR

  SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER

  OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 

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And what a very interesting Nor Easter around here that was, March 31st raining with sleet ( unexpectdly as it was supposed to be rain) crossed the GW into suddenly HVY sn. stayed 2 hours & saw 3 inches , weather channel changed forcast and said 3-6 inches into NY & NWS I think upped us to 6-10, it would only be snow when rates heavy and would switch to a mix at other times, NW burbs wound up at over 12-14 inches if I remember correctly and BOS got smoked with 27 inches plus!

I don't remember that storm, it wasn't very memorable outside of the hills on the North Shore. NYC was very close to sharing in the big snow totals, but the strongest banding and lift set up west and north of the area. There was a semi dry-slot overhead which ruined hopes for more than slush over the low elevations.
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This 18z NAM run is actually awesome.....check it out.....(the snow today and tonight gives the NYC area about 2" to 3" in some areas to give you an idea what it gives us after that) :

 

Southern Morris County has over 2 inches right now... they said 2 inches and there is  A LOT left that will be snow...

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The 18Z RGEM does not look quite as miserable as the 12Z did, it does continue to show the idea though that many in the BWI-ILG-PHL corridor who think they are going to jackpot that sleet may ruin the party.  This reminds me a big of 1/20/01, nobody really discussed the sleet possibilities and it crapped on the show for many....up here I think we are good but down there they need to be ready for issues.

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The 18Z RGEM does not look quite as miserable as the 12Z did, it does continue to show the idea though that many in the BWI-ILG-PHL corridor who think they are going to jackpot that sleet may ruin the party. This reminds me a big of 1/20/01, nobody really discussed the sleet possibilities and it crapped on the show for many....up here I think we are good but down there they need to be ready for issues.

I said last night that if the big precip area gets crushed south that very few people would see heavy snow amounts, maybe a small swath. There will be lots of warm air with this in association with the overrunning moist flow, and too much of a squeeze play between that and the confluence means a smaller heavy snow area.
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